NAB shares dive 8% as EPS downgrades expected

The big four bank is currently the ASX 200's worst performer.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points
  • NAB shares are tumbling on Thursday, falling 7.6% to trade at $26.38 at the time of writing
  • It comes on the back of the bank's first-half earnings, wherein its NIM rose to 1.77%
  • That was below forecasts, with one top broker predicting a drop in consensus EPS expectations

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares are plummeting on Thursday. In fact, the big four bank's stock is trailing the entire S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) right now.

It follows the release of the bank's first-half earnings, wherein it revealed a record profit. Though, its performance didn't live up to expectations.

The NAB share price is currently down 7.6% at $26.38.

Now, one top broker reportedly expects consensus forecasts on NAB's earnings per share (EPS) to be revised downwards.

A male investor wearing a white shirt and blue suit jacket sits at his desk looking at his laptop with his hands to his chin, waiting in anticipation.

Image source: Getty Images

NAB shares trail ASX 200 on earnings release

NAB shares are suffering on the release of the bank's earnings for the six months ended 31 March. As my Fool colleague James reported earlier, its results disappointed Goldman Sachs.

Now, UBS has weighed in, saying the bank posted a "weaker than expected" net interest margin (NIM) for the period, as per The Australian.

NAB's NIM climbed to 1.77% last half – helped by a barrage of interest rate hikes put forward by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). However, an increase in home lending competition and higher funding costs offset some of the benefits.

Meanwhile, its statutory net profit rose to around $4 billion and its dividend was upped to 83 cents per share.

The publication quoted UBS analyst John Storey as saying:

The standout for us was NIM only rising 10 basis points versus the previous half year with NAB calling out peaking NIM in Dec22 of 1.79%, with a [second quarter] exit NIM of 1.76%.

This result in our view confirms consensus is likely to revise EPS down further.

But it wasn't all bad news. NAB noted consumption and growth in the Australian economy are starting to soften, with inflation also appearing to moderate – meaning interest rates are likely at or around their peak.

It also stated that it looks more and more likely that Australia could dodge a "pronounced economic correction".  

The NAB share price is now 10% lower than it started the year. It has also fallen 18% since this time last year. Comparatively, the ASX 200 has risen 3% year to date and has fallen 2% over the last 12 months.

Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Bank Shares

Bank building with the word bank in gold.
Bank Shares

Judo Bank shares rise despite Morgan Stanley price target cut

Bargain hunters are circling this beaten-up ASX bank stock.

Read more »

A man with a wry smile on his face is shown close up behind ascending piles of coins as he places another coin on top of the tallest stack representing rising dividends
Bank Shares

Owned CBA shares for 10 years? Here's how much money you've made

CBA has been generous to investors over the past decade...

Read more »

Worried woman calculating domestic bills.
Bank Shares

Better buy? NAB vs Westpac shares

These major ASX banks are trading below their highs, but the better buy may come down to valuation and business…

Read more »

Three happy multi-ethnic business colleagues discuss investment or finance possibilities in an office.
Bank Shares

Suncorp reveals FY27 reinsurance plans and FY26 guidance update

Suncorp shares are in focus with a new FY27 reinsurance deal and FY26 guidance pointing to higher natural hazard costs.

Read more »

A woman looks questioning as she puts a coin into a piggy bank.
Bank Shares

A leading analyst is forecasting growing headwinds for NAB shares. Should investors be worried?

A leading analyst has issued a sell alert on NAB shares, citing margin pressure, higher credit risk, and slower profit…

Read more »

An older man wearing glasses and a pink shirt sits back on his lounge with his hands behind his head and blowing air out of his cheeks.
Bank Shares

Should I buy, hold, or sell CBA shares in July?

This high-quality ASX bank continues to trade at a premium, but I still think it is worth buying.

Read more »

A bland looking man in a brown suit opens his jacket to reveal a red and gold superhero dollar symbol on his chest.
Bank Shares

This is the ASX bank stock I would buy today for franked dividend income

Some ASX bank stocks are more equal than others.

Read more »

A couple sit in front of a laptop reading ASX shares news articles and learning about ASX 200 bargain buys
Broker Notes

Should I buy the rebound in CBA shares today?

After a weak finish to 2025 and a shaky start in 2026, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares have…

Read more »