The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price has been a relatively solid performer in 2023.
Since the start of the year, Australia's largest bank's shares have risen almost 3.5%.
As a comparison, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has lost 5.8% of its value during the same period.
And then let's not forget the dividends that CBA has paid. If we add in its fully franked dividends of $3.85 per share, this increases its total return by a further 3.6% to approximately 7%.
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Can the CBA share price keep rising?
Unfortunately, analysts across Australia are united in their belief that the CBA share price has peaked.
Among the most bearish brokers is Goldman Sachs, which has a sell rating and $90.98 price target on its shares.
Based on the current CBA share price of $105.98, this will mean potential downside of 14% for investors over the next 12 months.
Its analysts have concerns about CBA's exposure to home lending in the current environment and don't believe it deserves to trade on a larger than normal premium to the rest of the big four.
Goldman explained:
While the 1Q23 update highlighted the strength of the CBA franchise (particularly deposits), reflected in its very strong NIM performance, we reiterate our Sell given: i) it does remain more exposed to the intense competition we are currently observing in mortgages (albeit CBA appears to be favouring NIM over volumes), ii) we expect that potential further macro downside is likely to more adversely impact the household this cycle, which CBA is more exposed to, and iii) domestic volume trends have tracked towards system levels. We therefore do not believe its fundamentals justify the 51% 12-mo fwd PER premium it is currently trading on versus peers, compared to the 20% historic average.
