S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) iron ore shares have enjoyed a very strong month on the back of fast-rising iron ore prices.
On 2 November, the industrial metal was trading for US$82 per tonne. Today the iron ore price increased by another 3% to be trading for just under US$111 per tonne, offering some healthy tailwinds to the big iron ore miners.
Here's how the ASX 200 iron ore shares have performed since 10 November:
BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have gained 14%.
The Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) share price is up 19%.
And Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) shares have leapt 25% in a month.
Now, there are numerous company-specific factors that will determine how well these ASX 200 iron ore shares perform heading into 2023. But the price of the steel-making metal is clearly one to watch.
With that said, below we look at two divergent forecasts to bear in mind.
Will ASX 200 iron ore shares enjoy higher or lower prices?
Sounding off for the bulls are analysts at Citi.
The broker believes iron ore prices will remain strong in 2023, in large part thanks to China. Citi believes China's reopening from its COVID zero policies should help the world's number two economy restart its growth engine.
The broker is also bullish on its outlook for China's embattled property sector following recent measures from the Chinese government to support the iron-ore-hungry sector.
Provided China moves forward with its reopening plans, and the government offers additional significant assistance to the nation's real estate sector, Citi said the iron ore price could hit US$150 in 2023.
That price would certainly be welcomed by ASX 200 iron ore shares.
"China is making meaningful progress towards further reopening," Citi's analysts said. "We believe iron ore prices could rally towards $US150 a tonne if China rolls out meaningful credit easing in the next three [to] six months."
But not everyone agrees with this forecast.
Sounding off for the bears is Vivek Dhar, mining and energy analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA).
CBA believes that some analysts have put too much positive spin on the impact China will have on iron ore prices in 2023. CBA is forecasting a peak of US$100 per tonne for the industrial metal in the third quarter of 2023.
If CBA has it right, that could put some pressure on the ASX 200 iron ore shares heading into 2023 following the recent rally.
According to Dhar (courtesy of The Australian Financial Review):
While we see upside risks to our iron ore price forecast over the next year, we think prices above US$120 a tonne are unlikely to be justified by China's steel demand impulse next year…
While steel demand from China's property sector is unlikely to decline in 2023 like it probably will in 2022, it's still difficult to see steel demand in China's property construction sector growing next year. In fact, the sector that is likely to underpin China's steel demand growth in 2023 is infrastructure.
With CBA forecasting steel demand will grow at most 2% in 2023, Dhar said, "Such a view brings into question the sustainability of the recent rally in iron ore prices."
How have the big iron ore miners been tracking over the year?
Over the past 12 months, the BHP share price has gained 17%, Fortescue shares are up 18%, and the Rio Tinto share price is up 23%.
All three of the ASX 200 iron ore shares have smashed the benchmark return, with the ASX 200 down 3% over the full year.
