The Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) share price has been on an impressive run in the last few weeks. Since the end of October, it has risen by more than 30%.
As a major iron ore ASX share, changes in the commodity price can have a sizeable impact on how investors rate the business.
A higher iron ore price doesn't change how much it costs to mine the production, so higher iron prices can almost entirely add to profitability, aside from paying more to the government.
Iron ore prices have come down a long way since earlier in the year. But, are things looking up for the Rio Tinto share price as the end of 2022 gets closer?
Promising developments in China could lead to higher iron ore price
The iron ore price has already been climbing and it could reach US$150 per tonne, according to the broker Citi.
In China there has been a relaxing of some COVID rules in cities like Beijing and Shanghai. In Beijing, people are no longer required to show a negative COVID test to enter supermarkets and commercial buildings.
According to reporting by the Australian Financial Review, Citi has suggested the iron ore price could hit US$120 per tonne over the next three months.
Citi pointed out that China is making meaningful progress towards further reopening and, if it takes certain actions, then the rally could reach US$150 per tonne.
According to the newspaper, China's leader, President Xi, said in talks with European Union officials that the Omicron variant is less lethal, which Citi suggested could mean further reopening preparations are being done.
On top of the COVID side of things, Citi noted there has been a "clear shift" in policy towards the property sector, and that policymakers "appear determined to support debt-trapped property developers". This, Citi says, "reduces the downside risk for iron ore".
Can the Rio Tinto share price keep rising?
Most brokers don't think so. Citi has a neutral rating on the business, with a price target of $115. This implies no movement for the mining giant in the next 12 months.
The broker UBS is neutral on Rio Tinto, but the price target is just $90. That implies a possible decline of around 20%.
Morgan Stanley, another broker, has an add rating on Rio Tinto shares with a price target of $121. That implies a possible rise of around 5%.
