The Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) share price is down 2.6% to $10.31 in early trade this morning, joining a broader market selloff.
Despite the dip, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock is up an impressive 18% since the closing bell on 31 October.
It's not just the Northern Star share price that's outperformed. It's been a good month for most ASX gold miners, buoyed by a 5.8% rise in the price of bullion in November.
Gold is currently trading for US$1,741 per troy ounce, up from US$1,645 at the beginning of the month.
That's seen the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) gain 15% over the month, compared to a gain of 5% posted by the ASX 200.
That's the price action in November so far.
So, what can investors expect from the Northern Star share price moving forward?
Now what?
Atop the outlook for the gold price (which we'll get to shortly), there is a range of company-specific factors that will determine how the Northern Star share price performs in the months ahead.
In the miner's September quarterly activities report, the company reported its balance sheet was strong, with net cash of AU$173 million as at September 30, and with cash and bullion combined totalling AU$473 million.
Northern Star also maintained its FY23 guidance of 1.56 million to 1.68 million ounces of gold sold at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of AU$1,630 to AU$1,690 per ounce.
Those company-specific figures should bode well for the Northern Star share price.
But, as we outlined up top, the miner's returns are also heavily influenced by the price of the precious metal it digs from the ground.
As for the outlook for the gold price – and, by extension, the Northern Star share price – keep an eye on the US Federal Reserve. Gold's strong run in November has partly been thanks to the market pricing in a more dovish Fed moving forward.
A slower pace of interest rate hikes from the world's top central bank tends to support bullion prices, as gold pays no yield.
Atop how they're setting interest rates, you'll want to watch the gold-buying activities of the world's central banks as well.
According to the latest report from the World Gold Council, in the third quarter of 2022, gold demand "was bolstered by consumers and central banks".
The report highlighted that "central bank buying picked up significantly with estimated record purchases of nearly 400 tonnes in the third quarter".
And there's likely to be even more central bank buying on the horizon, which should offer some further tailwinds to the Northern Star share price.
The World Gold Council's recent central bank survey indicated 25% of the banks intend to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months.
Commenting on the central bank buying spree, Justin McQueen, senior market analyst at Capital.com, said, "The fact that central banks have been excessively accumulating does provide an undercurrent of support for the precious metal."
Northern Star share price snapshot
With the strong performance in November behind it, the Northern Star share price is now up a solid 9% in 2022. That handily outperforms the 5% year-to-date loss posted by the ASX 200.
