Why has the Treasury Wine share price jumped 5% in a week?

Could a thawing of the Australian relationship with China help TWE?

| More on:
A happy couple drinking red wine in a vineyard.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Chinese tariffs have been on Australian wine for some time
  • But, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has just met the Chinese leader, which could be a sign of a thawing of the frosty relationship
  • The Treasury Wine Estates share price has risen 5% over the past week 

The Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) share price has done well, rising by around 5% over the past week.

That compares to the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which only went up by around 2%, so it has materially outperformed.

The winemaker hasn't announced anything recently. But, it may be what's going on elsewhere in the world that could be helping boost the Treasury Wine Estates share price.

Thawing of relations

The last few years have been difficult for TWE, as China put tariffs on the Australian wine sector. Treasury Wine Estates saw a sizeable chunk of its earnings dry up. The company has been hard at work finding new markets to sell its wine and has (in my opinion) been largely successful with this strategy.

However, since the change of government in Australia, there has been a slow but steady shift in communication between the two countries.

It culminated earlier this week when Prime Minister Albanese met with China's leader, Xi Jinping. This was the first meeting between leaders of the two countries in years.

As reported by the ABC, Albanese said ahead of the meeting that even having a meeting with Australia's largest trading partner was a "successful outcome".

The meeting was reportedly 32 minutes long, which was 12 minutes longer than originally scheduled.

The ABC reported that Xi said China and Australia should "improve, maintain, and develop" the relationship, which has "encountered some difficulties" in the past few years. That sounds like a promising thing for the TWE share price, right?

Xi also said that "China-Australia relations have long been at the forefront of China's relations with developed countries, and they deserve to be cherished by us".

Albanese seemed pleased with the meeting, calling the talks "warm" and "constructive". The PM also said that both countries took an important step to "moving forward".

The ABC quoted Albanese saying:

There are many steps, of course, that we are yet to take… we will cooperate where we can, [and] disagree where we must act in the national interest.

At this stage, there was no official announcement on wine tariffs or any of the commodities that China has put tariffs on.

The media outlet suggested that there are conditions – that China "wants to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and wants Australia to continue its one-China policy." Also, the ABC reported that Xi wants Australia to see China as a partner, not a rival.

Foolish takeaway

Any progress that Australia can make that would help the wine industry may seemingly be a benefit for the Treasury Wine Estates share price.

Any change may take a while, and if tariffs are changed it may only be a reduction. We'll have to see what happens next. Regardless, the business is growing in other markets to make up for the loss of Chinese sales.

The TWE share price is still down more than 20% from the pre-COVID price.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Treasury Wine Estates Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

View of a business man's hand passing a $100 note to another with a bank in the background.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Elders gets third strike in a row against its executive pay

The boss' pay packet is still on the nose at the major agribusiness.

Read more »

A businessman in a suit adds a coin to a pink piggy bank sitting on his desk next to a pile of coins and a clock, indicating the power of compound interest over time.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

1 ASX 200 share to consider for the coming decade

I think this stock has a right decade in front of it.

Read more »

Portrait of a female student on graduation day from university.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Here's why a surprise accounting shift sent IDP shares higher today

Management reaffirmed IDP Education's FY26 guidance.

Read more »

Wife and husband with a laptop on a sofa over the moon at good news.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Bapcor shares soar 12% on the appointment of a new CEO

The market’s strong reaction reflects a clear message: investors are ready for a reset.

Read more »

A jockey gets down low on a beautiful race horse as they flash past in a professional horse race with another competitor and horse a little further behind in the background.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Gaming tech company's tie up with global operator Stake sends shares higher

An agreement to supply racing data to Stake has sent this company's shares higher.

Read more »

A young farnmer raise his arms to the sky as he stands in a lush field of wheat or farmland.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Macquarie tips more than 20% returns for this ASX 200 stock after a sharp sell-off this week

This grain handler's shares are looking cheap after some bad news drove them lower this week.

Read more »

a man sits alone in his house with a dejected look on his face as he looks at a glass of red wine he is holding in his hand with an open bottle on the table in front of him.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Treasury Wine Estates shares slump 56% this year. Buying opportunity or time to sell up?

The wine giant has faced headwinds this year.

Read more »

Young man sitting at a table in front of a row of pokie machines staring intently at a laptop. looking at the Crown Resorts share price
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Why are Star shares rocketing 12% today?

The casino operator is betting on some big changes to position it for the future.

Read more »