Flight Centre share price struggles amid dwindling household cashflows forecast

The travel company was among many ASX shares that tracked lower today.

| More on:
a man wearing an old-fashioned aviation leather head covering and goggles and with a cardboard plane shape around his waist runs along the ground against a barren, desert background.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Flight Centre shares pushed lower today on no price sensitive news 
  • A macro report on the Australian economy was also released which didn't bode well for many ASX shares
  • In the last 12 months, the Flight Centre share price has clipped a 23.5% gain

The Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) share price landed in the red on Tuesday. At the close of trade, it finished 2.28% lower at $17.97.

The dip extends Flight Centre’s losses to almost 12% during the past month of trade.

In broader market moves, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) finished 0.86% higher today to close at 6,763 points.

Let’s take a closer look at what might have been behind Flight Centre’s performance today.

Household cash flows to narrow

Investors sold the Flight Centre share price down today despite no news from the company. However, analysts at Swiss Investment bank UBS, led by George Tharenou, released a dire report on Australia’s economy.

It predicts household cash flows could tighten to their lowest on record in 2023 amid the plethora of cost pressures households now face, not in the least rising interest rates.

The UBS team reckons the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s recent decision to hike the cash rate by 50 basis points will hurt aggregate demand come 2023.

Essentially it says the decision – made in a bid to tackle inflation – will reduce the amount of disposable income households have at the end of each cycle.

From this, the report forecasts GDP will slump to less than 2% from 2022-23 while it’s expected unemployment will climb again to around 3%.

The UBS report said:

The recent rate hikes, plus more to come, will double household interest payments.

“[T]hat is the fastest rise on record, amid the highest household leverage in the world.

UBS analysts also said that the “transmission mechanism”, that is the impact, of the RBA’s hikes on borrowing rates and, hence, the economy is “the most direct in the world”.

Muted market response

Investors didn’t respond well to the news. Despite some early volatility, the Flight Centre share price traded relatively flat across the day.

Its performance was accompanied by a flood of selling in other consumer shares.

The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index (ASX: XDJ) weakened and finished 1.34% in the red, reversing an uptrend since 17 June in the process.

Flight Centre’s trading volume was up around its four-week average of 1.4 million shares, with investors swapping a total of one million shares during today’s session.

Flight centre share price snapshot

Flight Centre shares slipped from a three month high of $23 a share on 2 May to now trade near three-month lows.

In the last 12 months, the Flight Centre share price has clipped a 23.5% gain. However, it’s down marginally year to date, as illustrated below.

TradingView Chart

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Share Fallers

A woman sits on sofa pondering a question.
Energy Shares

Is the AGL share price in the buy zone following the company’s latest results?

Are AGL Energy shares worth a post-earnings look?

Read more »

A woman with a sad face looks to be receiving bad news on her phone as she holds it in her hands and looks down at it.
Share Fallers

Why AGL, Fisher & Paykel, Inghams, and TPG shares are sinking today

These ASX shares are falling heavily on Friday...

Read more »

A young man clasps his hand to his head with his eyes closed and a pained expression on his face as he clasps a laptop computer in front of him, seemingly learning of bad news or a poor investment.
Energy Shares

APA share price falls as payroll errors leave $32m dint

The company will recognise a $32 million provision in its financial year 2022 earnings.

Read more »

A woman with a sad face looks to be receiving bad news on her phone as she holds it in her hands and looks down at it.
Share Fallers

Why Blackmores, Codan, Lake Resources, and Xero shares are falling today

These ASX shares are falling on Thursday...

Read more »

A young girls clings in fright to a big red slide.
Materials Shares

Down 16% in 3 days: Why is the Lake Resources share price still sliding?

What's behind Lake shares dropping 16% in three days?

Read more »

A businessman slips and spills his coffee.
Share Fallers

Adore Beauty share price slips 12% following ASX speeding ticket

What went down with Adore Beauty on Wednesday -- other than its share price.

Read more »

A businessman carrying a briefcase looks at a square peg or block sinking into a round hole.
Energy Shares

Why is the Carnarvon share price cratering 18% on Wednesday?

The ASX energy share released an update on its Dorado development, located offshore in Western Australia.

Read more »

A worried man holds his head and look at his computer.
Share Fallers

Why CSL, Downer, Magellan, and PointsBet shares are falling today

These ASX shares are falling on Wednesday. Here's why...

Read more »