What's the outlook for ASX 200 dividend shares in the second half of 2022?

And which ASX dividend stocks are the best payers?

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A man happily kisses a $50 note scrunched up in his hands representing the best ASX dividend stocks in Australia today

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Key points

  • Just five ASX 200 dividend shares accounted for nearly two-thirds of the total dividends paid to Australian investors in the year ending 31 March 
  • Additionally, the five stocks – BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue, CBA, and Westpac – are all housed in either the banking or resources sectors
  • Janus Henderson expects continuing dividend growth from both sectors in the second half of 2022

Owners of ASX 200 dividend shares likely saw their payments cut during the COVID-19 pandemic. But they've also seen their shares go through one of the most impressive recoveries in the world.

And now, ASX 200 dividends could reach record levels in 2022. According to a new report, the second half of this year has the potential to be astronomical for dividend payments.

Australian shareholders may be handed more than $100 billion in dividends this year, according to the latest Global Dividend Index report from Janus Henderson Group (ASX: JHG).

Let's take a closer look at the best ASX dividend stocks highlighted by the fund manager. These are the companies that Janus Henderson thinks are likely to continue doling out strong dividends.

Which ASX 200 shares could keep boosting their dividends?

ASX 200 shares could lead the way for Australia to post a record-breaking year of dividends in 2022. That's despite the nation's payouts plummeting during the pandemic.

The fund manager found Australia's dividends slumped a whopping 37.3% during the height of COVID-19 while the rest of the world's dipped just 16.7%.

But the reasons behind the ASX's dividend dump also boosted payouts to a record high over the 12 months ended 31 March. Over the period, ASX companies handed investors $97.9 billion in dividends.

So which sectors have been driving this upwards trend? Perhaps unsurprisingly, higher commodity prices saw ASX 200 mining shares highlighted as some of Australia's biggest and best dividend stocks.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) was the world's biggest dividend payer in the March quarter. It accounted for 32% of all dividends handed to ASX investors at that time. Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) and Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) were also among Australia's best ASX dividend providers.

The fund manager expects miners' dividends to continue growing over the rest of 2022. However, it warns that volatile commodity prices make its outlook less certain.

ASX 200 bank shares are also behind much of Australia's dividends. They're also expected to stay on track in the second half.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) delivered the third-biggest dividend payout of the year ending March 31. Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) paid the fifth-highest dividend.

Interestingly, CBA, Rio, Fortescue, BHP, and Westpac accounted for nearly two-thirds of all ASX dividends over the year to March. That's likely welcome news to those invested in the ASX 200 quintet.

However, the fund manager warned that this leaves shareholders dependant on fewer dividend stocks. This makes them vulnerable to difficulties that could cause big dividend-paying companies to cut their payouts.

Either company-specific events or broader catastrophes like pandemics or market crashes could see Australia lose a significant portion of its dividends in one swipe due to this high level of concentration.

Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Westpac Banking Corporation. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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