Falling ASX 200 mining shares ‘an opportunity to invest in sector leaders’: broker

The big miners haven’t yet performed as well as many analysts expected, given the big lift in commodity prices.

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Key points

  • ASX 200 mining shares could be priced at opportunistic levels following recent falls
  • Canaccord expects demand for commodities involved in electrification to remain strong long term
  • The broker also is bullish on its outlook for gold

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining shares have, as a whole, delivered some outsized gains to investors over the past full year.

But despite soaring commodity prices, many ASX 200 mining shares have struggled in 2022.

What’s been happening with the big miners?

Over the past month, for example, the Allkem Ltd (ASX: AKE) share price has fallen 15%. At the current share price, the lithium producer has a market cap of $7.2 billion.

Copper, gold, and nickel miner Oz Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL) also had a rough month, falling 15% since 12 April. It has a current market cap of $7.4 billion.

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) is another ASX 200 mining share giving back gains recently. Though still up 49% over the past full year, the Lynas share price is down 11% over the past month. The world’s second-largest producer of rare earths now has a market cap of $7.9 billion.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 6.3% over the past month.

Are these ASX 200 mining shares now good value?

With the recent retracement in their share prices, are these ASX 200 mining shares a buy?

According to analysts at Canaccord, led by Reg Spencer, the answer is yes.

“Looking through the short-term volatility, we see the recent pullback as an opportunity to invest in sector leaders with robust balance sheets and near-term earnings growth/positive free cashflow yields, particularly those with leverage to attractive long-term supply/demand fundamentals such as Allkem, Lynas Rare Earths, and Oz Minerals,” they said, as reported by The Australian.

Canaccord said miners like these ASX 200 mining shares haven’t performed as well as expected, given their historically close correlation to commodity prices, likely dragged lower by the wider market sell-off.

Despite some pressure from rising interest rates, the analysts also have a positive outlook for gold, citing supply disruptions and the looming potential of a recession in the United States as supportive of prices.

And miners involved in producing commodities like lithium and copper, required for the global push for electrification, should see strong long-term demand for their products. Canaccord said that’s despite short-term pullbacks in demand due to China’s COVID-19 lockdowns and forecasts of sluggish global economic growth.

The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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