The BHP share price has lost 10% in 2 weeks. Here's why this expert is tipping a recovery

Both China and the United States are planning significant increases in infrastructure spending.

After a strong performance through most of 2022, BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) has had a bit of a tough run over the past 2 weeks.

At market open this morning, the BHP share price is down 10% from Tuesday, 19 April, having closed yesterday at $47.98.

The other S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giants have struggled over the past 10 trading days as well, though not quite as much.

The Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) share price, for example, is down 7.3% over the 2 weeks while Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) shares have dropped a more modest 1.7%.

A common headwind hitting BHP shares along with Rio Tinto and Fortescue has been the slipping iron ore price, with fears that Chinese demand for the industrial metal could fall amid its reduced economic growth outlook.

Last week, iron ore fell 8.5% before regaining 5.4% over the past few days.

And according to Jess Amir, Australian market strategist at Saxo Bank, demand for iron ore looks set to rebound, which should help support the recovery in the BHP share price and the other top ASX 200 iron ore stocks.

A man in a high visibility vest and hard hat at the wheel of a heavy mining machinery looks backwards.

Image source: Getty Images

World's top 2 economies to splash cash on infrastructure

Iron ore is a key ingredient in steel production. And steel, in turn, is vital in the construction of buildings, bridges, roads, and most every type of infrastructure project.

Hence, when the world's 2 biggest economies are planning major ramp ups in infrastructure spending, demand for iron ore should increase.

According to Amir:

Iron ore buying is expected to ramp up not only because of Chinese President Xi's calls for 'all-out efforts' to boost infrastructure construction like it did in 2007-2008, but also as US President Biden's $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill will be put to work.

Turning to the slumping BHP share price and the recent declines in Fortescue and Rio Tinto, Amir said, "This supports recoveries in BHP, Fortescue, and Rio still trading lower than 2-week highs."

Amir also points to the juicy dividend yields offered by the ASX 200 miners, alongside their modest price to earnings (P/E) levels:

These three stocks offer the highest dividend yields in the market, and are far above the average 2.8% yield.

BHP has a yield of 10%, Rio Tinto 9.6%, and Fortescue 13.7%. BHP trades on 10.68 times earnings, Rio on 6.09 times earnings and Fortescue on 5.2 times earnings. And they all have free-cash flows, unlike most growth and tech stocks.

BHP share price snapshot

Although the miner has lost ground over the past 2 weeks, the BHP share price remains up 12.8% so far in 2022. That compares to a year-to-date loss of 3.5% posted by the ASX 200.

The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Resources Shares

Gold bars on top of coins.
Resources Shares

Gold plunges to a 1-year low, triggering global sell-off. Time to buy gold or miners?

Has gold lost its shine, or is today's sell-off a golden opportunity?

Read more »

A man in his 30s with a clipped beard sits at his laptop on a desk with one finger to the side of his face and his chin resting on his thumb as he looks concerned while staring at his computer screen.
Resources Shares

Is the BHP share price a buy at $58?

I'm optimistic about BHP's long-term prospects, but I think its current valuation deserves a closer look.

Read more »

Happy miner with his arms folded.
Resources Shares

ASX 200 mining shares rebounded while consumer stocks fell last week

US AI stocks led our ASX 200 miners higher while hot inflation data sent retail shares lower.

Read more »

A woman standing on the street looks through binoculars.
Resources Shares

Here's the dividend forecast out to 2028 for Rio Tinto shares

Is Rio Tinto a gold mine for dividends?

Read more »

Male hands holding Australian dollar banknotes, symbolising dividends.
Resources Shares

If I invest $20,000 in Fortescue shares, how much passive income will I receive in 2027?

Will Fortescue continue to be a rewarding choice for passive income?

Read more »

Miner and company person analysing results of a mining company.
Resources Shares

Are ASX mining giants BHP, Fortescue, and Rio Tinto shares a buy for November?

What's ahead for the ASX mining giants?

Read more »

Mining vehicle at a mine site.
Resources Shares

2 ASX gold developers I'd buy with a spare $5,000 today

Both companies have a clear plan to develop their projects.

Read more »

Two workers on a tablet at a mine site, with mining machinery behind them.
Resources Shares

Is Rio Tinto becoming a better copper investment than BHP?

I like the long-term prospects of both companies, but their near-term copper production outlooks are looking quite different.

Read more »