Expert says investors are 'missing this inflection point' for QBE shares

The tides might be turning for QBE, one expert reckons.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points
  • QBE shares have staged a comeback rally in 2022 and are well in the green since trading resumed in January 
  • Experts are turning more constructive on the stock and note it has the potential to deliver upside in 2022 based on the current macroeconomic climate 
  • In the last 12 months, the QBE share price has gained 26% 

Shares of QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) are tracking higher on Friday and now rest in the green.

They initially spiked from the open, however, have since taken a backward step from intraday highs of $12.41.

At the time of writing, investors are paying $12.32 apiece for QBE shares.

A share market analyst looks at his computer screen in front of him showing ASX share price movements

Image source: Getty Images

Is the QBE share price at a tipping point?

After a difficult period these past few years, the QBE share price has managed to reverse course in 2022 and trade 9% higher.

Meanwhile, over the past month of trade, QBE has jumped 8% and has managed to book a 26% gain during the last 12 months.

Perhaps it's these returns that have sophisticated investors more constructive on the insurance giant, backed by its underlying fundamentals.

That could be the case, according to hedge fund manger Mark Landau, chief investment officer (CIO) of L1 Capital.

Sure, its share price has faltered in recent years, but the devil's in the detail with QBE, Landau says.

"If you look in detail at the last result of QBE's profits, if you take away all the actuarial assumptions that effectively lower their profit, their profit was actually 40% better than what they told the market," he recently told Livewire.

Even though investors "hate the stock", there are a number of catalysts feeding into QBE's operating story right now.

One of those factors is the amount of short-dated bonds QBE holds on its books, Livewire says, noting that for "every 1% increase in bond yields, the insurer gets a roughly 20% increase in profits".

Landau says that no one expects QBE to deliver higher profits, "let alone 20% [profit] on top of the underlying insurance business".

On this backdrop, the CIO submits that investors who are overlooking QBE right now could be missing an inflection point "similar to what we had in 2001".

Analysts are positive about the QBE share price too, touching on similar points to Landau in their recent assessment of the company.

In particular, each of UBS and JP Morgan rate QBE as a buy, valuing it at $15 and $15.50 per share respectively.

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Financial Shares

A male investor sits at his desk looking at his laptop screen holding his hand to his chin pondering whether to buy Macquarie shares
Financial Shares

Insurance Australia Group's RAC Insurance deal faces ACCC Phase 2 review

Insurance Australia Group’s bid for RAC Insurance faces ACCC’s Phase 2 review over competition in Western Australia.

Read more »

young woman reviewing financial reports at desk with multiple computer screens
Financial Shares

Forget Westpac, this ASX financials share could have 30%+ upside

Bell Potter thinks that this share is a better buy than Australia's oldest bank.

Read more »

A daisy growing through cracked earth, depicting resilience in the face of diversity.
Financial Shares

This beaten-down ASX financial share is bouncing back fast today

Netwealth shares jump as strong quarterly inflows rebuild investor confidence.

Read more »

A team of people giving the thumbs up sign.
Financial Shares

Court approves Insignia Financial scheme: $4.80 per share for holders

Insignia Financial shares in focus as court approves $4.80 per share scheme implementation.

Read more »

A man and woman in an office look at a laptop and discuss investing, budget strategies or other financial concepts
Financial Shares

AMP posts Q1 2026 results, launches $150m buyback

AMP reveals its Q1 2026 results, highlighted by strong growth in Platforms and improved outflows in Superannuation & Investments.

Read more »

Smiling man sits in front of a graph on computer while using his mobile phone.
Financial Shares

Netwealth Group lifts FUA to $125.8B with strong quarterly flows

Netwealth boosted FUA to $125.8B and delivered strong net flows in a volatile market quarter.

Read more »

Young investor sits at desk looking happy after discovering Westpac's dividend reinvestment plan
Financial Shares

Westpac Banking Corporation: Items impacting first-half 2026 results

Westpac will release its half-year result on 5 May.

Read more »

Broker looking at the share price.
Financial Shares

Why this $5 billion ASX financial stock is slipping today

Investors reacted to latest quarterly update with increasing outflows.

Read more »