Expert says investors are 'missing this inflection point' for QBE shares

The tides might be turning for QBE, one expert reckons.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points
  • QBE shares have staged a comeback rally in 2022 and are well in the green since trading resumed in January 
  • Experts are turning more constructive on the stock and note it has the potential to deliver upside in 2022 based on the current macroeconomic climate 
  • In the last 12 months, the QBE share price has gained 26% 

Shares of QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) are tracking higher on Friday and now rest in the green.

They initially spiked from the open, however, have since taken a backward step from intraday highs of $12.41.

At the time of writing, investors are paying $12.32 apiece for QBE shares.

A share market analyst looks at his computer screen in front of him showing ASX share price movements

Image source: Getty Images

Is the QBE share price at a tipping point?

After a difficult period these past few years, the QBE share price has managed to reverse course in 2022 and trade 9% higher.

Meanwhile, over the past month of trade, QBE has jumped 8% and has managed to book a 26% gain during the last 12 months.

Perhaps it's these returns that have sophisticated investors more constructive on the insurance giant, backed by its underlying fundamentals.

That could be the case, according to hedge fund manger Mark Landau, chief investment officer (CIO) of L1 Capital.

Sure, its share price has faltered in recent years, but the devil's in the detail with QBE, Landau says.

"If you look in detail at the last result of QBE's profits, if you take away all the actuarial assumptions that effectively lower their profit, their profit was actually 40% better than what they told the market," he recently told Livewire.

Even though investors "hate the stock", there are a number of catalysts feeding into QBE's operating story right now.

One of those factors is the amount of short-dated bonds QBE holds on its books, Livewire says, noting that for "every 1% increase in bond yields, the insurer gets a roughly 20% increase in profits".

Landau says that no one expects QBE to deliver higher profits, "let alone 20% [profit] on top of the underlying insurance business".

On this backdrop, the CIO submits that investors who are overlooking QBE right now could be missing an inflection point "similar to what we had in 2001".

Analysts are positive about the QBE share price too, touching on similar points to Landau in their recent assessment of the company.

In particular, each of UBS and JP Morgan rate QBE as a buy, valuing it at $15 and $15.50 per share respectively.

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Financial Shares

Financial advisor on phone and looking at computer whilst eating and holding coffee.
Financial Shares

After a brutal 2026, this $1.5 billion ASX financial stock is pushing higher again

MA Financial shares move higher, but questions remain.

Read more »

A happy elderly couple enjoy a cuppa outdoors as the woman looks through binoculars.
Financial Shares

Why are Challenger shares falling today?

Sustained fund outflows are placing downward pressure on earnings.

Read more »

A couple sit in their home looking at a phone screen as if discussing a financial matter.
Financial Shares

Challenger plans 2026 redemption of Capital Notes 3 with final distribution

Challenger will redeem all Challenger Capital Notes 3 in May 2026, with a final $1.47 per note distribution for registered…

Read more »

A graphic showing a businessman running up a white upwards rising arrow symbolising the soaring Magellan share price today
Financial Shares

HUB24 grows Q3 inflows and funds under administration

HUB24 delivered $4.0bn in net inflows and 22% higher FUA in Q3 FY26 as adviser numbers and platform innovations drive…

Read more »

Two male professional analysts discuss share price movements shown on the computer screen in front of them, with one pointing to a screen
Financial Shares

Experts say this ASX financials stock could soar up to 40%

Investors seem to back the company's ability to attract adviser and client funds.

Read more »

A young man sitting at an outside table uses a card to pay for his online shopping.
Financial Shares

Despite a downgrade, one broker thinks this ASX small cap can still deliver four-fold returns

This payments firm is looking very cheap, according to one broker.

Read more »

Ecstatic man giving a fist pump in an office hallway.
Financial Shares

This ASX financial stock is jumping 6% today. Here's what just landed

Navigator shares accelerate as AUM growth drives strong investor interest.

Read more »

A group of market analysts sit and stand around their computers in an open-plan office environment.
Financial Shares

National Australia Bank strengthens balance sheet ahead of 1H26 results

National Australia Bank reveals increased credit provisions and changes to software policy ahead of its half-year 2026 results.

Read more »