QBE share price riding on these 3 'macro tailwinds', analysts say

Analysts are constructive on QBE.

| More on:
A team of people giving the thumbs up sign representing APA and Wesfarmers doing a deal to study green hydrogen transport using an APA gas pipeline

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • QBE looks well-positioned to benefit from a number of macroeconomic tailwinds
  • Interest rates, higher premiums on crops and commodity insurance, and potential improved climate-risk metrics are all factors
  • In the past 12 months, the QBE share price has climbed 26%

Shares in QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) are trading at $12.26 apiece, up 1.49% on Thursday.

After some fairly widely-dispersed pricing, QBE stock has managed to thrust itself off a low of $10.08 in March and race higher to its current levels.

Analysts are constructive on the company and reckon it's well-positioned to benefit from a slew of macro catalysts. Let's take a look.

TradingView Chart

QBE share price to benefit from macro tailwinds

Analysts at UBS have chimed in on the investment debate for QBE in a recent note to clients. They note the insurer is benefitting from a number of industry-specific and macroeconomic tailwinds, making it the preferred insurance share for UBS.

Writing to clients, UBS analyst Scott Russell said factors such as stronger crop pricing are feeding additional income to QBE via gross written premiums from crop insurance customers.

Not only that, but rising bond yields have the potential to send QBE shares higher, he says.

Meanwhile, analysts at JP Morgan have tied QBE's outlook to recent events in the bond markets and a strengthening phase in the insurance cycle.

"As a global commercial insurer, QBE is subject to the vagaries of the insurance cycle and volatile natural catastrophes," the broker wrote.

"Trends in the cycle are currently improving, and there could be further upside from premium rates, providing a tailwind for earnings growth, with investment yields a headwind."

UBS and JP Morgan each rate QBE as a buy. They value QBE at a price of $15 and $15.50 per share respectively.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Matt Ingram reckons market sentiment has improved for QBE based on its improved climate-risk outlook and its 'brilliant basics' program.

He says this could reflect "consensus fiscal 2023 profit that's more than double mean earnings for the last decade".

"The higher earnings reflect underwriting and efficiency improvements thanks to the firm's "brilliant basics" program and better risk selection in the U.S. and European businesses," he wrote earlier this month.

"The 1.3x price/book ratio represents a 25% discount to IAG, the tightest it has been since 2011, reflecting IAG's climate-related costs and QBE's optimism. It remains more expensive than Suncorp despite the latter's superior profitability," he added.

What's the consensus on QBE?

QBE has a consensus valuation of $14.41 per share, according to Bloomberg data. About 91% of analysts covering it rate it a buy right now.

In the past 12 months, the QBE share price has climbed 26%. It is also 9% higher this past month.

JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns and has recommended Insurance Australia Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Broker Notes

Broker written in white with a man drawing a yellow underline.
Broker Notes

Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's what brokers are recommending as buys this week.

Read more »

Broker looking at the share price.
Broker Notes

Guess which 3 ASX 200 shares were just upgraded by top brokers

Leading brokers forecast 12-month share price gains of up to 15% for these ASX 200 companies.

Read more »

Man smiling at a laptop because of a rising share price.
Broker Notes

Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's why brokers believe that now could be the time to snap up these shares.

Read more »

a man in a business suite throws his arms open wide above his head and raises his face with his mouth open in celebration in front of a background of an illuminated board tracking stock market movements.
Broker Notes

Lithium and technology: Broker names 2 ASX 200 shares as strong buys

Morgans is feeling bullish about these shares for good reason.

Read more »

Smiling man with phone in wheelchair watching stocks and trends on computer
Broker Notes

10 top ASX shares to buy in May

Analysts think that these shares would be great options next month.

Read more »

Two male ASX 200 analysts stand in an office looking at various computer screens showing share prices
Broker Notes

Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week

Brokers gave buy ratings to these ASX shares last week. Why are they bullish?

Read more »

A businessman looking at his digital tablet or strategy planning in hotel conference lobby. He is happy at achieving financial goals.
Broker Notes

Morgans names more of the best ASX shares to buy

The broker has given these shares a big thumbs up.

Read more »

A young man wearing a black and white striped t-shirt looks surprised.
Broker Notes

These ASX 300 shares could rise 20% to 65%

Big returns could be on the cards for these shares according to analysts.

Read more »