QBE share price riding on these 3 'macro tailwinds', analysts say

Analysts are constructive on QBE.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points
  • QBE looks well-positioned to benefit from a number of macroeconomic tailwinds
  • Interest rates, higher premiums on crops and commodity insurance, and potential improved climate-risk metrics are all factors
  • In the past 12 months, the QBE share price has climbed 26%

Shares in QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) are trading at $12.26 apiece, up 1.49% on Thursday.

After some fairly widely-dispersed pricing, QBE stock has managed to thrust itself off a low of $10.08 in March and race higher to its current levels.

Analysts are constructive on the company and reckon it's well-positioned to benefit from a slew of macro catalysts. Let's take a look.

TradingView Chart
A team of people giving the thumbs up sign.

Image source: Getty Images

QBE share price to benefit from macro tailwinds

Analysts at UBS have chimed in on the investment debate for QBE in a recent note to clients. They note the insurer is benefitting from a number of industry-specific and macroeconomic tailwinds, making it the preferred insurance share for UBS.

Writing to clients, UBS analyst Scott Russell said factors such as stronger crop pricing are feeding additional income to QBE via gross written premiums from crop insurance customers.

Not only that, but rising bond yields have the potential to send QBE shares higher, he says.

Meanwhile, analysts at JP Morgan have tied QBE's outlook to recent events in the bond markets and a strengthening phase in the insurance cycle.

"As a global commercial insurer, QBE is subject to the vagaries of the insurance cycle and volatile natural catastrophes," the broker wrote.

"Trends in the cycle are currently improving, and there could be further upside from premium rates, providing a tailwind for earnings growth, with investment yields a headwind."

UBS and JP Morgan each rate QBE as a buy. They value QBE at a price of $15 and $15.50 per share respectively.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Matt Ingram reckons market sentiment has improved for QBE based on its improved climate-risk outlook and its 'brilliant basics' program.

He says this could reflect "consensus fiscal 2023 profit that's more than double mean earnings for the last decade".

"The higher earnings reflect underwriting and efficiency improvements thanks to the firm's "brilliant basics" program and better risk selection in the U.S. and European businesses," he wrote earlier this month.

"The 1.3x price/book ratio represents a 25% discount to IAG, the tightest it has been since 2011, reflecting IAG's climate-related costs and QBE's optimism. It remains more expensive than Suncorp despite the latter's superior profitability," he added.

What's the consensus on QBE?

QBE has a consensus valuation of $14.41 per share, according to Bloomberg data. About 91% of analysts covering it rate it a buy right now.

In the past 12 months, the QBE share price has climbed 26%. It is also 9% higher this past month.

JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns and has recommended Insurance Australia Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Broker Notes

Two smiling work colleagues discuss an investment at their office.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: NAB, Pro Medicus, and Telstra shares

Let's see what analysts are saying about these big names.

Read more »

Smiling young parents with their daughter dream of success.
Broker Notes

Why Life360 shares could be dirt cheap and set to rise 90%

Bell Potter has good things to say about this tech stock.

Read more »

a surprised investor reading about an asx share price in a newspaper
Broker Notes

Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's what brokers are recommending as buys this week.

Read more »

A business person directs a pointed finger upwards on a rising arrow on a bar graph.
Broker Notes

Why this buy-rated ASX mining share is tipped to surge 112%

A leading broker expects this ASX mining share to more than double investors’ money in a year.

Read more »

a man stands with travel documents in hand with a roller wheel suitcase and extended handle next to him holding his forefinger to his lip as he ponders his next move in a deserted airport. as the Qantas share price falls
Broker Notes

Down 15% in March, should you buy Qantas shares today?

A leading analyst provides his outlook for Qantas shares.

Read more »

A male investor sits at his desk looking at his laptop screen holding his hand to his chin pondering whether to buy Macquarie shares
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: Breville, Goodman, and Wesfarmers shares

Are analysts bullish or bearish on these names?

Read more »

Three miners wearing hard hats and high vis vests take a break on site at a mine as the Fortescue share price drops in FY22
Resources Shares

Are these 3 ASX 200 mining shares a buy, hold, or sell?

What changes have the experts made to their ratings and price targets since the war in Iran began?

Read more »

Happy young woman saving money in a piggy bank.
Broker Notes

Up more than 17% since January, should you buy CBA shares today?

A leading analyst delivers his forecast for CBA’s fast-rising shares.

Read more »