Can the Tesla share price really quadruple from here?

Could Tesla stock really four-bag from here? This famous analyst reckons it will….

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Key points

  • Tesla always seems to get investors talking, even here on the ASX 
  • The Elon Musk-helmed electric car maker has given investors stellar returns before 
  • But ARK Invest's Cathie Wood reckons its only just beginning for Tesla 

Of all the US shares that have captured the minds of Aussie investors in recent years, electric vehicle and battery manufacturer Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) surely comes close to topping the list.

For one, Tesla’s meteoric rise from US$38 a share back in May 2019 to the all-time high of US$1,243.49 that we saw in November last year was enough to turn some heads. And there are also the meme-friendly antics of eccentric Tesla CEO Elon Musk over the years to consider as well. Throw in the rabid interest that investors have developed for ‘clean and green’ companies, and we can begin to understand the fascination over Tesla that many investors have developed.

But with such a steep share price rise over the past few years, many investors might be wondering where this now-US$1.06 trillion company is headed next. What could possibly follow a three-year return of close to 1,800%?

Well, according to Cathie Wood, another quadrupling. Wood is a US-based investor and fund manager well-known for her bullish outlook on tech shares in particular. She runs ARK Invest, which is a firm that specialises in creating US tech-based ETFs such as the flagship ARK Innovation ETF (NYSE: ARKK). Wood has never been shy to spruik Tesla before. Her fund was an early investor in the company and has likely already made windfalls on investing in Tesla.

Cathie Wood: Tesla stock price to hit US$4,600, possibly US$5,800

But according to a report in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) this week, Wood is doubling down on Tesla. She is calling a US$4,600 Tesla stock price by 2026, which would be more than a four-fold increase on where the shares sit today. That’s up from ARK’s previous prediction of a US$3,000 Tesla stock price by 2025. ARK reportedly also has a ‘bull‘ and ‘bear‘ case for Tesla too. Its bear case still has the company at US$2,900 by 2026, but its bull case scenario is a whopping valuation of US$5,800 by the same year.

These revised valuation models reportedly factor in Tesla’s prospective ‘robotaxi’ business, as well as its “capital efficiencies”.

So could the company really reach those heights? Well, we can’t know for sure today. But Wood was one of the few voices arguing Tesla would be a multi-bagger in 2019 when few others were.

However, the AFR report also cites a more pessimistic analyst in David Trainer, CEO of investment researcher New Constructs. Trainer sees Tesla shares at just US$150-$200 in the future, citing Tesla’s loss of its first-mover advantage in the electric vehicle space, and intensifying competition. 

Time will only tell who proves to be right on Tesla’s stock price. But no doubt it will still have investors’ attention, whichever way it goes. 

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen owns Tesla. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns and has recommended Tesla. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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