Is there more bad news in store for BNPL shares like Zip, with Macquarie analysts 'becoming more cautious'?

Further gains could be headed this way for BNPL, analysts say.

| More on:
Upset woman with her hand on her forehead, holding a credit card.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Zip shares have faltered hard in 2022 alongside the wider tech sector 
  • Analysts have turned less constructive and see possible headwinds on the horizon as customer growth has slowed 
  • In the last 12 months, the Zip share price has fallen more than 86% into the red 

Shares in Zip Co Ltd (ASX: Z1P) have weakened in 2022 and are now trading at 52-week lows as trading resumes this week.

With a 71% loss this year to date, it's no wonder why investors are shying away from the BNPL sector and shunning names like Zip.

TradingView Chart

More bad news to come for the Zip share price?

Not helping the situation is newly-acquired Block – nee Afterpay – reporting extensive losses in its interim results last week.

Bought on a hefty sum of $39 billion (Australia's largest ever public buyout), Block's share price fell immediately after the purchase.

Zip then purchased BNPL peer Sezzle Inc (ASX: SZL) a short time afterwards, albeit at a shave of the price.

In 2022 cash earnings are becoming more important than ever, and from its consolidated statement of income, Afterpay printed a pre-tax loss of $502 million for the half year to 31 December 2021 – no improvement from a circa. $76 million loss last year.

Analysts at Macquarie have become less constructive on the sector and have noticed some shifting trends amongst consumers.

It believes there are "red flag[s] for the BNPL industry" based on its assessment of website visits – a key driver of growth, analysts say.

"This is the first time we've seen negative growth since tracking the data series," it wrote in a recent note to clients.

"We consider BNPL more of a customer acquisition tool, and in the case of declining customer numbers the value of BNPL diminishes."

Macquarie values Zip at $1.85 and urges its clients to sell, alongside 45% of coverage, according to Bloomberg data.

Its average price target is $2.95, however, helped by bullish positions from Ord Minnett and Jarden valuing Zip at $4 and $5.75 apiece respectively.

Hence the sentiment appears mixed amongst those analysts covering the company. But either way, Zip has a long way to go before its share price returns to former highs.

In the last 12 months, the Zip share price has fallen more than 86% into the red.

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns and has recommended ZIPCOLTD FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on BNPL shares

BNPL written on a smartphone.
BNPL shares

3 reasons why Zip shares are a screaming buy right now

The company's share price has been pretty volatile this year.

Read more »

A young woman smiles as she rides a zip line high above the trees.
BNPL shares

Why did Zip shares rebound 19% this week?

FY26 has been volatile for this ASX BNPL stock.

Read more »

Happy woman in purple clothes looking at asx share price on mobile phone
BNPL shares

Zip share price plunges 30% in a month but fundie tips 'meaningful upside' ahead

After 110% share price growth in FY25, Zip shares have failed to maintain the momentum in FY26.

Read more »

People sit in rollercoaster seats with expressions of fear, terror and exhilaration as it goes into a steep downward descent representing the Novonix share price in FY22
BNPL shares

$10,000 invested in Zip shares in January is now worth…

Zip shares have had a rollercoaster of a ride over the past 12 months.

Read more »

Stock market crash concept of young man screaming at laptop on the sofa.
BNPL shares

Why is the Block share price crashing 14% on Friday?

Investors are punishing Block shares on Friday. But why?

Read more »

a young woman holds her hand to her ear and leans sideways as if to listen to something that's surprising her as her eyes and her mouth are wide open.
Financial Shares

Why are Zip shares down 23% in a month, and what was revealed at the AGM today?

The buy now, pay later operator conducted its annual general meeting on Thursday.

Read more »

Upset woman with her hand on her forehead, holding a credit card.
BNPL shares

Why did Zip shares tumble 12% in October?

After surging more than 300% since April, why did Zip shares tumble in October?

Read more »

A young boy sits on his father's shoulders as they flex their muscles at sunrise on a beach
Broker Notes

Macquarie initiates coverage of Zip shares with outperform rating and predicts 17% upside

Is it time to buy now on these BNPL shares?

Read more »