Why did the Transurban share price have such a good run in March?

Brokers have a keen eye on the toll operator…

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Key points

  • The Transurban Group share price outperformed the benchmark index during March
  • Despite the gain, there were no price-sensitive announcements released by the group
  • Bullish sentiment from two brokers might explain the extra push

The Transurban Group (ASX: TCL) share price has been an unrewarding investment for some shareholders since 2019. Notably, those who bought just prior to the pandemic have yet to revisit those pre-COVID highs yet. However, March provided some reinvigoration for investors of the toll-road operator.

Looking back at the month past, the Transurban share price has come out the other side of March 7.2% better off. To put things into perspective, this was an outperformance of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which notched up a gain of 5.7%.

So, what happened during Transurban’s best performance in a calendar month since May 2020?

Brokers go bullish as traffic recovery looms

When a share outperforms the benchmark index, it is normally an indication there’s some positive news floating around. Yet, a lack of price-sensitive announcements during March suggests the catalyst laid elsewhere.

Instead of big flashy news, it appears shareholders were treated to an improvement in broker sentiment towards the Transurban share price. Namely, notes released by Morgans and Macquarie.

Firstly, Morgans believe the toll operator is set to catch a tailwind as traffic volumes improve. With exposure to drivers such as population growth, employment growth, and urbanisation, the broker is expecting a bounce-back in dividends per share.

Meanwhile, Macquarie dispersed the notion that higher fuel prices would hurt Transurban. According to the broker’s research, historical fuel price increases resulted in either steady or higher traffic volumes.

What could the Transurban share price be worth?

Both brokers hold price targets above the current Transurban share price. Specifically, Morgans holds a $14.29 target, while Macquarie is a slightly higher $14.96.

Shares in the company closed on Friday at $13.64, representing a potential upside of 4.7% to 9.7%.

Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler owns Macquarie Group Limited. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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