Are 2021's monster dividends from ASX 200 mining shares sustainable in 2022?

Soaring commodity prices have helped the miners pay some outsized dividends.

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Key points

  • ASX 200 mining shares paid out record dividends in 2021 
  • Income investors may not get the same special dividends from the miners in 2022 
  • Aussie shares were the third biggest dividend payers in the world last year 

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) dividend shares are in sharp focus in 2022 following a surge in payouts last year.

And ASX 200 mining shares led the dividend charge.

Some big special dividend payouts saw BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO), and Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) all rank among the top 10 dividend-paying stocks in the world in 2021.

Indeed, the biggest of the ASX 200 mining shares, BHP, came in as the number 1 dividend payer on the globe last year. (That's in terms of total payout, mind you, not dividend yield.)

According to a report from Janus Henderson, all told, Aussie dividends came in at $63.3 billion in 2021, aided by exchange rates. That's the third largest total dividend payout in the world last year.

If you're wondering, shares in the United States market came in first, followed by shares in the United Kingdom.

What can investors expect in 2022?

With multi-year or even record highs amongst commodity prices in 2021, the mining sector delivered more than 25% of the increase in dividend payouts.

But what can investors expect from the ASX 200 mining shares in 2022?

Janus Henderson forecasts that "global dividends will reach a new record of $1.52 trillion, up 3.1% on a headline basis, or 5.7% in underlying terms."

As for ASX 200 mining shares, the global asset manager cautions, "The mining sector may not be able to repeat the record level of payments witnessed in 2021, given the moves in some commodity prices."

According to the report:

The big unknown for 2022 is what will happen in the mining sector. Iron ore prices are a significant driver and, despite recovering some lost ground recently, are lower at present than during most of 2021…

Given the reliance of profits and therefore dividends on commodity prices, there is a significant degree of uncertainty about the level of mining payouts. It is reasonable to assume they will fall from the record levels of 2021, at least in the reduction or elimination of one-off special payments.

How have these ASX 200 mining shares been tracking?

Aside from delivering outsized dividend payouts, 2 of the ASX 200 mining shares have also handily outpaced the benchmark this year.

While the ASX 200 is down 3.9% this year, the BHP share price has gained 10%, while Rio Tinto shares are up 11.1%.

The Fortescue share price has gone the other way, down 4.7% in the new year.

The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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