The Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) share price is tumbling today amid new findings Australia is ditching coal 2 to 3 times faster than previously anticipated.
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) – the manager of Australia's National Electricity Market – made the claim within its 'step change' scenario.
At the time of writing, the Whitehaven share price is trading at $2.41, 3.6% lower than its previous close.
Let's take a closer look at the scenario AEMO claims is the most likely to eventuate.
Whitehaven share price falls amid AEMO findings
The Whitehaven share price is struggling as the AEMO finds 39% of Australia's coal-fired power capacity could be dropped by 2030.
On top of that, the body predicts the utility scale of renewable energy will be increased 9-fold by 2050.
According to AEMO's 'step change' modelling, 14 gigawatts of Australia's 23-gigawatt coal capacity will be withdrawn by 2030. That's more than 8 gigawatts more than thermal plant owners had assumed.
Additionally, all brown coal generation and more than 66% of black coal generation could be scrapped by 2032.
That's 16 years earlier than AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL) plans to retire its brown coal-fired Loy Yang Power Station.
However, while the Whitehaven share price is plunging, that of AGL isn't suffering at all. It's recording a 0.94% gain at the time of writing.
Last year, coal-fired power represented 54% of Australia's electricity, down 2% on 2019 levels.
Under the 'step change' scenario, Australia will meet its net-zero policy commitments while accounting for technological advances and considering government ambitions and consumer preferences.
The model also flagged the likelihood that all coal-generated electricity will be scrapped by 2043.
AEMO CEO, Daniel Westerman commented on the scenario, saying:
This transformation will efficiently deliver secure, reliable and affordable electricity while substantially contributing to national emissions objectives.
In fact, all scenarios modelled found coal-fired power used in Australia would be significantly reduced by 2030. On top of that, all found coal-fired power was set to be removed from the electricity market completely by 2050.
