With the IAG (ASX:IAG) share price trading around decade-lows, is now the time to buy?

Is it time to go shopping for IAG shares?

| More on:
A woman wearing a face mask and holding an umbrella, window shops in the rain.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG) share price is being hammered by investors recently. The insurance giant is navigating its way through challenging market conditions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

At midday on Monday, IAG shares are swapping hands for $4.40, a drop of 0.57%. In the past month alone, IAG shares have fallen by nearly 11%, weighed down by negative investor sentiment.

What's happened with IAG shares?

There are a couple of possible catalysts as to why the IAG share price has failed to produce decent gains over the last 12 months.

In its recent trading update, the company revealed a rise in net natural perils claim costs. It blames severe storm and hail activity experienced in October, mainly across South Australia and Victoria.

As such, the insurer is estimating the net natural perils claim costs for FY22 to be around $1,045 million. This is a significant increase from the previous assumption of $765 million.

Following the $280 million setback, IAG has been forced to downgrade its FY22 insurance margin guidance range between 10% to 12%. Previously, the insurance margin level was in the 13.5% to 15.5% range.

In addition, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has commenced civil penalty proceedings in the Federal Court of Australia.

The allegations relate to IAG's failure to pass on the full discount to a large number of NRMA home, motor, caravan and boat insurance customers between March 2014 and September 2019.

It's worth noting that IAG self-reported the issue to ASIC following a review it conducted in 2019. Since then, IAG has embarked on a remediation program for the affected policyholders. More than 80% of the impacted customers have been provided refunds.

What do the brokers think?

A number of brokers have rated the company with comparable price points since IAG released its business update on 2 November.

Leading Australian investment firm Morgans cut its 12-month IAG share price target by 5% to $5.36. Following suit, Macquarie had a similar stance, reducing its rating by 5.3% to $5.40.

However, Citi had a slightly improved outlook compared to the other brokers, slashing just 2.6% to $5.60.

About the IAG share price

Looking at the last 12 months, the IAG share price is down more than 17%, with year to date hovering 6.38% below. It's worth noting, however, the company's shares have lost about 50% of their value since July 2019.

In contrast, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has gained around 10% from this time last year and in 2021. The benchmark index also reached a record high of 7,632.8 points in mid-August.

This shows that the ASX 200 has outperformed IAG shares. The ASX 200 historically tracks about 6% higher each year.

Based on valuation metrics, IAG has a market capitalisation of around $10.89 billion, with approximately 2.47 billion shares on issue.

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Insurance Australia Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Financial Shares

Five candles on birthday cake.
Financial Shares

5 ASX financial shares to buy in 2026

Here are 5 ASX financial shares that the experts are backing for price growth this year.

Read more »

Australian dollar notes in the pocket of a man's jeans, symbolising dividends.
Financial Shares

Own AMP shares? Here are your key dates for the year

Full-year results are not far off.

Read more »

Two people in flying suits and helmets cruise in mid-air high above the earth with arms outstretched and the sun on the horizon.
Financial Shares

Can these high flying financials shares from last year do it again?

Is it too late to jump on board these soaring stocks?

Read more »

Person sitting on couch with computer on lap whilst flood waters rise around ankles
Financial Shares

Which ASX insurance stock to buy in 2026: QBE or Suncorp?

Most analysts see a better 2026, but risks remain.

Read more »

Australian dollar notes in the pocket of a man's jeans, symbolising dividends.
Financial Shares

This fund has just declared a special dividend after "record outperformance"

The investment team at this fund says there's still plenty left in the tank after boosting dividend payouts substantially.

Read more »

A man wearing a suit and holding a colourful umbrella over his head purses his lips as though he has just found out some interesting news.
Financial Shares

Why are IAG shares slipping today?

IAG shares are trailing the benchmark on Tuesday. Here’s what’s happening.

Read more »

A woman sits in a cafe wearing a polka dotted shirt and holding a latte in one hand while reading something on a laptop that is sitting on the table in front of her
Financial Shares

Argo just locked in its key dates for 2026. Here's what investors need to know

Let’s take a look at what’s ahead for the start of the year.

Read more »

one man in a classic navy blue business suit lies atop a wheelie office shair while his colleage, also in a navy business suit, grabs him by the legs and propels him forward with both of them smiling widely as though larking about in the office.
Financial Shares

Why these brokers are bullish on the Suncorp share price

The insurance giant could be a compelling investment, according to experts.

Read more »