How does the Telstra (ASX:TLS) share price usually perform leading up to Christmas?

The Telstra share price doesn't usually perform well in December…

Sebastian Bowen

Author Bio

Sebastian Bowen has been a Motley Fool contributor since late 2018. Sebastian found his passion for writing and educating others about shares and all things finance after completing his studies in political, economic, and social science, and he enjoys bringing this passion to life at the Fool. His investment philosophy is simple – buying high-quality companies at sensible prices. When he’s not researching his next investment at all hours of the morning, Sebastian enjoys classic movies and unwinds with a good book, newspaper, or record.

Areas of Expertise

Dividend investing
ETFs

Education

Bachelor of Political, Economic, and Social Sciences (Government and International Relations), University of Sydney

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Favourite Investment Quote

"In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine."
– Benjamin Graham

Published November 29, 2021 3:00 pm AEDT

The Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS) share price has been a surprise ASX 200 blue chip performer in recent times. Telstra shares have delivered a very pleasing year to date performance in 2021 so far, as well as a pleasing 12 month performance. This telco's share price is up 33.4% and 30.8% over those periods respectively, despite today's nasty share price slump. So far this Monday, Telstra is down 0.86% at $4.02 a share.

It was only last Tuesday that Telstra was hitting a new 52-week high of $4.09 a share though, its highest level since late 2017. So where to from here? Well, since we are approaching the end of the year, it might be a good time to ask how Telstra shares typically perform in the lead up to Christmas. Is there a pattern to watch out for here?

Well, let's dig in.

A woman holds an old fashioned telephone ear piece to her ear while looking unhappy sitting at a desk with her glasses crooked on her nose and a deflated expression on her face. — Image source: Getty Images

Will the Telstra share price be naughty or nice?

So let's first look at last year. Telstra began December 2020 at a share price of $3.07 (those were the days). By Christmas Eve, this ASX 200 telco had closed at $3.01 a share. That's a Scrooge-like slide of 1.95%.

Before you execute a pre-December sell out of your Telstra position, let's see if this pattern holds true for other years as well.

2019 had Telstra start the twelfth month at $3.86 a share, only to end up at $3.65 by Christmas Eve – a slide of 5.44%. Ok, not a great start. Let's go back to 2018.

Telstra began December 2018 at a share price of $2.93. By 24 December, it had fallen to $2.78. The pattern continues.

2017?

Telstra kicked off December 2017 asking $3.39 a share. By Christmas Eve that year, it was up at $3.66 a share, a rise of almost 8%.

So what does this tell us? Not much in all likelihood. Yes, Telstra has had 3 bad runups to Christmas in a row. But sometimes if you flip a coin 3 times, it comes up with 3 heads in a row. No one knows how this Christmas period will go for the Telstra share price. But it's probably not a good idea to try and make an investment decision on something so arbitrary anyway.

At the current Telstra share price, this ASX 200 telco has a market capitalisation of $47.75 billion, with a dividend yield of 3.98%.

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