Why Moderna shares surged 27% in June

Growing concern over the emerging delta variant and more long-term supply agreements boosted the stock last month.

| More on:
woman preparing Moderna vaccine

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

What happened

Shares of Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) rose 27% in June, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Known for its highly effective COVID-19 mRNA vaccine, Moderna rose in tandem with the spread of the concerning delta variant across the world in June. The company also announced studies showing its vaccine was highly effective against that variant and others, and it locked up more supply agreements with the U.S. and other countries.

So what

Early in the month, Moderna secured a long-term supply agreement with UNICEF to sell the organization 34 million doses in the fourth quarter of 2021, along with up to 466 million doses in 2022. That was followed up by a purchase of 200 million doses, securing supply into the first quarter 2022, and then another 150 million doses purchased by the European Union, bringing its order commitment total to 460 million, including boosters for new variants in 2022. The new purchase orders by major countries coincided with Moderna's release of clinical data showing its COVID vaccine as protective against six of the newer variants, including the delta variant causing so much concern. Rival Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE: JNJ) vaccine has only shown to be about 60% effective against the delta variant, a lower rate than two-dose vaccines like Moderna's.

Now what

Even after its June run, Moderna's stock trades at a bargain valuation of less than 10 times next year's earnings estimates. That's because investors see the company's huge COVID windfall as a one-time occurrence, and that those earnings will decline in 2023 and beyond. But with the delta variant causing worries -- and with Moderna's vaccine perhaps providing superior protection versus the one-dose Johnson & Johnson -- investors now might be forecasting a longer life for Moderna's COVID franchise than it had previously. Moderna also still isn't given much credit for its fairly large pipeline of other mRNA indications, since mRNA is only a newly commercialized technology. So despite the stock's monster run over the past year, any new COVID variants or new mRNA indications from its pipeline could extend the rally even further.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

Billy Duberstein has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Johnson & Johnson and Moderna Inc. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on International Stock News

A male investor sits at his desk looking at his laptop screen holding his hand to his chin pondering whether to buy Macquarie shares
International Stock News

If you invested $10,000 in Nvidia stock the day ChatGPT came out, this is how much you'd have today

Buying Nvidia when the disruptive AI chatbot launched would have been a smart move.

Read more »

A Tesla car driving along a road at sunset
International Stock News

Why Tesla stock was climbing today

Investors were encouraged by news of a price hike on the Model Y.

Read more »

Plate with coloured wedges being parcelled out like a slice of pie representing a share split
International Stock News

Stock-split watch: Is Nvidia next?

Nvidia last split its stock when it traded for a pre-split $744 in 2021.

Read more »

A woman in jeans and a casual jumper leans on her car and looks seriously at her mobile phone while her vehicle is charged at an electic vehicle recharging station.
International Stock News

1 Wall Street analyst thinks Tesla stock is going to $125. Is it a sell?

Tesla is no longer a magnificent stock, according to a Wells Fargo analyst.

Read more »

A young man goes over his finances and investment portfolio at home.
International Stock News

Is Nvidia stock a buy?

The company's stock could rise 40% over the next two years and outperform the S&P 500.

Read more »

Man with hands in the middle of two items with money bags on them.
International Stock News

Is Nvidia headed for a stock split?

Nvidia stock has split five previous times in the company's history.

Read more »

Digital rocket on a laptop.
International Stock News

Nvidia shares surged (again) today. Is it too late to buy the red-hot artificial intelligence (AI) growth stock?

Nvidia stock has gained nearly 300% over the past year. Can investors still profit from this AI stock?

Read more »

A woman holds a soldering tool as she sits in front of a computer screen while working on the manufacturing of technology equipment in a laboratory environment.
International Stock News

Can you buy Nvidia shares on the ASX?

This stock has rocketed higher. How do we get access to it?

Read more »