Is there more upside to the CBA (ASX:CBA) share price following recent results?

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares have set another record high today. Where does Macquarie think the CBA share price could go from here?

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The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price has gone from strength to strength following the company’s third-quarter update on 12 May.

The bank’s shares are currently up another 1.53% today at $98.06 after setting another all-time record high of $98.40 in earlier trade. Many investors will be keenly wondering whether CBA shares can potentially break the $100 mark for the first time on record. 

With the Commonwealth Bank share price outperforming its big four peers in recent weeks, will it plateau or continue to run? Here’s what analysts at Macquarie are thinking. 

Where Macquarie thinks the CBA share price will go next 

Macquarie believes the recent performance of CommBank sets it apart from peers, delivering superior revenue growth with improving margins and the ability to sustain balance sheet momentum. 

Today’s broker note highlights the bank’s pro forma CET1 of 13.4%, which is approximately 60 to 100 basis points ahead of its peers. Macquarie believes that CommBank’s strong capital position combined with its franking credit balance could translate to a structured stock buyback in the first half of FY22. 

Despite CBA coming out ahead of expectations, Macquarie retained a neutral rating and an $86.00 target price. 

Why the CBA share price didn’t slump last week

The other big four banks, National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ) all went ex-dividend last week. A company’s share price typically falls on the ex-dividend date, to an amount that reflects the dividend paid. 

CBA, on the other hand, had already gone ex-dividend on 16 February for an interim dividend of $1.50.  

Foolish takeaway

The CommBank share price is the only share price out of the big four banks to break above both pre-COVID levels and set new all-time record highs.

In the case of Westpac, the bank would need to add another ~56% in value to contest its April 2015 highs of almost $40 per share. To a lessor extent, the ANZ share price needs another ~36% to match its April 2015 highs of $37. NAB needs to do the most legwork, with its previous record highs dating all the way back to late 2007 of $41 per share compared to the $26 its trading at now. 

This could be a reason why Macquarie has retained a neutral stance on CommBank shares, given the fact that the bank has run well ahead of its peers by a significant margin. 

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Motley Fool contributor Kerry Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Macquarie Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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