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The BWX share price is going gangbusters on this short-seller-busting forecast

The BWX Ltd (ASX: BWX) share price has gone absolutely gangbusters today, but not because its profit collapsed in half to $9.54 million over fiscal 2019. 

Investors are bidding the Sukin manufacturer’s stock higher as its CEO has delivered a short-seller busting forecast for EBITDA growth between 25%-35% in FY2019 on forecast revenue growth between 20%-25%. As a result shares are up 28% to $2.99 this afternoon.

Of course forecasts are all well and good, it’s actually delivering on them that counts with BWX cycling off a weak H1 19, but not so weak H2 19 over FY 20. BWX had to downgrade its profit guidance three times over FY 2019 and investors won’t want another guidance miss.

The CEO, David Fenlon, is confident though: “BWX remains well positioned with category leading brands underpinned by material growth trends favouring natural products. The Group will continue its investment in brand building, process improvement, capability and innovation to drive deeper consumer penetration and basket sizes supporting double digit revenue and EBITDA growth in FY2020.”

Sales of its core Sukin product tumbled 20% over FY 2019, although the group did flag that second half revenue group was up 19% on the weak first half. It also reported Sukin now has 2 of the top 10 most popular skincare products at supermarkets giant Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL).

Shares could remain volatile over the next 12 months for the natural beauty products business.

Another distributor in the fruit and veg space in Costa Group Ltd (ASX: CGC) is heading in the opposite direction today with its shares down 14% to $3.28.

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Motley Fool contributor Tom Richardson has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended BWX Limited and COSTA GRP FPO. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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