Atlassian: Bubble or the ultimate growth share?

Is Atlassian stock a bubble?

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

a woman

Probably Australia's best tech company in US$34 billion (A$48.9b) giant Atlassian just reported an adjusted or non-GAAP profit of US$55.9 million on revenue of US$334.6 million for the quarter ending June 30, 2019. The software-as-a-service giant also reported free cash flow of US$98.2 million over the quarter, up 52% on the prior corresponding quarter.

However, on a GAAP reporting standard (i.e. not backing out certain one offs, or costs) the group reported a net operating loss of US$32.4 million and when you include non-cash impairments on the value of tax assets and adjustments to the value of convertible notes the group booked a whopping US$237.5 million loss. 

For financial year 2020 the group is forecasting another GAAP loss around 22 cents per share, or on an adjusted basis a profit around a $1 per share on revenue forecast to come in between US$1,540 million to US$1,556 million. A $1 per share adjusted profit would total around US$244 million given it expects to have around 244 million shares on issue. 

It also shows us that the company is trading on around 134x its own guidance for forward earnings based on a US$134 share price. 

The company finished the quarter with cash in hand or cash equivalents worth US$1.7 billion. 

It also boasted it now has more than 152,000 customers using its online software products and expects subscription revenue will grow over 40% in FY 2020.

Atlassian is a textbook example of the rampant growth of cloud-based software-as-a-service businesses in the US and Australia over the last 12 months. Others that have been rocketing in value include Splunk, Okta and Shopify in the US, with the ASX boasting the likes of Xero Limited (ASX: XRO) and Wisetech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC).

Some professional money managers argue their valuations are in 'bubble' territory, while others argue their underlying economics and compound growth potential justifies the valuation. The truth could be somewhere in the middle!

Tom Richardson owns shares of Okta, WiseTech Global and Xero.

You can find Tom on Twitter @tommyr345

The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Okta, Splunk, Atlassian and Shopify. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Xero. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Share Market News

A woman's hand draws a stylised 'Top Ten' on a projected surface.
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

It was a tough start to the week for investors.

Read more »

A man in a business suit looks at a gold phone with his head in an exploding cloud of gold dust.
Gold

Newmont stock has plunged 17% in March. Here's why

This war has had an unusual effect on the price of gold.

Read more »

Broker looking at the share price.
Broker Notes

Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's why brokers believe that now could be the time to buy these shares.

Read more »

man looks at phone while disappointed
Broker Notes

What are analysts saying about ResMed, Downer, and Nuix shares?

They have given their verdicts on these shares. Are they bullish or bearish? Here's what you need to know.

Read more »

A U.S. Naval Ship (DDG) enters Sydney harbour.
Broker Notes

Why it's not too late to buy this surging ASX All Ords defence stock

A top broker expects more outperformance from this rocketing ASX defence stock.

Read more »

a woman looks exhausted and overwhelmed as she slumps forward into her hand while looking at her laptop screen.
Share Fallers

Why Regis Resources, Strike Energy, Telix, and Virgin Australia shares are falling today

These shares are starting the week in the red. But why?

Read more »

Businessman working and using Digital Tablet new business project finance investment at coffee cafe.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: Brainchip, CAR Group, and Endeavour shares

Let's see what analysts think about these shares this week.

Read more »

Excited couple celebrating success while looking at smartphone.
Share Gainers

Why Lifestyle Communities, Perpetual, Reliance Worldwide, and Woodside shares are rising today

These shares are having a positive start to the week. But why?

Read more »