Is the Australian dollar set to crack under US70 cents?

The path of least resistance for the Aussie is down but the ASX winners from our falling dollar may not be as obvious as you'd think.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

a woman

The Aussie battler is clawing back some of yesterday's losses with the currency inching up from its two-and-a-half-year low.

But some experts believe it's only a matter of time before our dollar tumbles below the US70 cent-mark, which will open the way for the Aussie to fall to around US65 cents.

The path of least resistance for the Aussie is down and the downtrend is likely to last for months, according to the Australian Financial Review. This will create winners and losers on the ASX – but the winners may not be as obvious as you might think.

Growing hostilities between Chinese and US trade officials will keep the greenback well supported as the two largest economies appear to be heading towards an all-out trade war.

Trump's tax cuts are also pushing the US dollar higher even though this will only be a temporary shot in the arm for the US economy.

This is because the fiscal stimulus may well force the US Federal Reserve to lift interest rates by more than it normally would as the central bank tries to rein in inflation.

On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of Australia has no room to lift rates and the growing differential between the official interest rates between our two countries will only keep the Aussie dollar on the backfoot.

What's more, there doesn't seem to be any obvious circuit-breaker for our embattled dollar, which has fallen even harder than the Philippine peso!

This is probably because the Aussie battler is seen as the perfect instrument to short-sell as a hedge against a slowdown in China due to the trade war.

But investors thinking that they should buy any ASX stock with large US dollar exposure in response will need to think more deeply about the strategy.

It probably won't be the best outcome to buy companies that generate US dollar sales if their business is leveraged to global economic cycles.

While I like stocks like logistics group Brambles Limited (ASX: BXB), this is a good example of what I mean.

I think US-exposed stocks with less cyclical businesses may prove to be a better safe harbour. This includes diagnostic imaging group Sonic Healthcare Limited (ASX: SHL), plumbing equipment supplier Reliance Worldwide Corporation Ltd (ASX: RWC) and even glove maker Ansell Limited (ASX: ANN) – assuming it can avoid being caught up in the tariffs.

Looking for other stocks that are well placed to beat the S&P/ASX 200 (Index:^AXJO) (ASX: XJO) in FY19? The experts at the Motley Fool have picked their best blue-chip stock ideas and you can find out what these are by following the link below.

Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau owns shares of Brambles Limited and Reliance Worldwide Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Ansell Ltd. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Share Market News

A shadow bear faces a man against the backdrop of a falling share price.
Opinions

How to invest during an ASX share bear market when you're worried about prices falling more

Is this the time to be brave or cautious about investing?

Read more »

A bland looking man in a brown suit opens his jacket to reveal a red and gold superhero dollar symbol on his chest.
Share Gainers

These were the best-performing ASX 200 shares in March

Here are the best-performing shares from the ASX 200 index last month.

Read more »

Smiling man with phone in wheelchair watching stocks and trends on computer
Share Market News

5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

It looks set to be a very good day for Aussie investors today.

Read more »

A male investor sits at his desk pondering at his laptop screen with a piece of paper in his hand.
Share Market News

Paladin Energy shares: Judicial review challenges EIS approval

Paladin Energy shares are in focus after a judicial review was filed against its key project’s EIS approval.

Read more »

Ecstatic woman on her phone giving a fist pump after reading some good news.
Opinions

5 ASX shares I'd buy with $10,000 this week

I expect these shares to rebound over the next 12 months.

Read more »

man analysing share price
Share Market News

AGL Energy gives green light to $490m Kwinana gas project

AGL gives final approval to its $490 million Kwinana gas project, targeting new growth and returns in Western Australia.

Read more »

Multi-ethnic people looking at a camera in a public place and screaming, shouting, and feeling overjoyed.
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

It was a volatile but positive Tuesday.

Read more »

A young woman holding her phone smiles broadly and looks excited, after receiving good news.
Share Market News

Why I'd buy DroneShield and these ASX 200 shares next month

These ASX shares offer a mix of growth, resilience, and long-term opportunity.

Read more »