I think we are nearing an inflection point for energy use globally.
It has been building for years, but was beautifully apparent this weekend which saw OPEC agree to extend cuts to oil production just as season four of the Formula-E electric racing series kicked off.
The juxtaposition was sublime.
Motor vehicles account for almost half of all petroleum products used, but watching the Formula-E series cars, with their ruthless acceleration and slot-car "whiz", it feels very much like those days are numbered.
But will that impact oil prices in 2018?
Although Australia's big energy producers Santos Ltd (ASX:STO), Woodside Petroleum Limited (ASX:WPL) and Oil Search Limited (ASX:OSH) are heavily focused on LNG production, rather than oil, LNG pricing is often linked to the price of oil so it's an important question to ask.
Where is the oil price going in 2018?
The extension of OPEC agreed production cuts to the end of 2018 certainly looks like good news for producers. The aim is to limit supply and bring stockpiles back to their five-year average to support the price.
However analysts don't seem so sure.
The problem is that the cost of shale oil production has come down so much over the last two years that it is profitable for many shale producers to operate below the current price of US$63 per barrel. This makes many experts think prices could fall in 2018.
BP Chief Financial Officer Brian Gilvary told Reuters that the company expects oil prices to sit between US$45-US$55 a barrel in 2018 as U.S. shale production grows.
JPMorgan's Head of Regional Oil and Gas, Scott Darling, told Bloomberg he also expects the oil price will drift below US$60 in the new year.
Meanwhile, a spokesman for bank Emirates NBD told Bloomberg it is forecasting US$56 per barrel in 2018.
What it means for investors
It's surprising to get a common view forming on the direction of oil prices so I certainly wouldn't bet on which way they head.
But local producers have worked hard to cut costs and at an oil price of US$55 per barrel low cost producers should be cashflow positive. Santos for example reported a 'cashflow break even' hurdle of US$33 per barrel in its recent quarterly update, while Woodside Petroleum was cashflow neutral at US$34 per barrel in the six months to 31 July 2017.
While this is positive there still seems like more down-side than up-side potential for oil prices in my view, especially as the world increasingly moves towards embracing an electric future.
