Miners to profit from the surging nickel price

The price of nickel has been on the march. But are the gains sustainable?

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The price of nickel continued its charge on the London Metals Exchange overnight to hit US$12,695 a metric tonne, the highest it's been in more than two years.

And Australian nickel miners appear to have been enjoying those gains as buyers stock up on the metal amid predictions of increased demand from the electric car market.

The Western Areas Ltd (ASX: ASA) share price has increased by more than 50% since it was trading below $2 in July to close on Thursday at $2.99.

The Independence Group NL (ASX: IGO), which has nickel mining operations in Western Australia, was up 3.6% on Thursday to close at $4.32.

And BHP Billiton Limited (ASX: BHP), Australia's biggest nickel producer, gained 1.48% to close on $27.35.

Although many have attributed the rise of nickel to surging demand for materials required for making electric cars, other factors are at play.

Indonesia, a major nickel supplier, last year cut back ore exports by imposing a ban in a bid to boost local production.

As a result, nickel pig iron production in China declined in 2016, which possibly resulted in a flow on effect through to 2017.

But Indonesia relaxed its ban on nickel ore exports in January this year.

However it's likely that China's pollution crackdown, which has led to concerns about supply of materials, has had an impact on the nickel price.

Adding to this, a suspension of mines in the Philippines would also be a factor playing on the price of nickel.

But there are also reasons to suggest that the price of nickel could come back down as quickly as it's gone up.

It's understood that production in Indonesia has been increasing this year and will likely continue to do so into 2018 as new projects ramp up.

In the Philippines, it has been announced that the review of suspended mines would be concluded by the end of the year and could be coming back online.

The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) also supports the idea that nickel production is increasing and will continue to do so.

World primary nickel production was 1.991Mt in 2016, and is projected to increase to 2.052Mt in 2017 and increase again to around 2.206Mt in 2018, according to INSG.

But, there is a degree of uncertainty with these figures, especially in regard to Chinese and Indonesian nickel pig iron production, according to INSG.

As such, things could change pretty quickly.

Motley Fool contributor Steve Holland has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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