Print and business technology solutions provider CSG Limited (ASX: CSV) has seen its shares plunge an incredible 29% to 86.5 cents this morning after the release of a less-than-impressive market update.
Although the company still expects to deliver full year revenue of at least $300 million, it has downgraded its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) growth forecast.
Previous guidance indicated EBITDA would come in at $44 million to $48 million, implying growth of approximately 14.5% to 16% year on year. But this morning management has revised its forecast to between $38 million and $42 million, which would mean growth of between 12.5% and 14%.
According to the release the company’s EBITDA margin has been impacted by a number of factors. These include a decline in its print service margin as a result of low volume and price, unfavourable changes in business mix to low margin services, and extra investment in its cost base to meet its longer-term growth aspirations.
In light of this I’m reasonably sceptical that the company will achieve what is expected of it for the full year and so I’m not surprised to see its shares drop today.
Especially considering management expects EBITDA of just $14 million to $16 million in the first half of FY 2017. It is going to have to produce something special in the second half to reach its revised forecasts.
Because of this I would stay clear of the company for the time being, at least until its half year update in February. Until then IVE Group Ltd (ASX: IGL) could be a good option for investors looking for exposure to the printing industry.
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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.
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