Is the BHP Billiton share price headed to $15?

Does today's fall in the BHP Billiton Limited (ASX:BHP) share price precede further falls?

| More on:
a woman

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The BHP Billiton Limited (ASX: BHP) share price crashed 3.1% to below $20 a share in afternoon trading on the ASX.

Given the size of the company, it has also played a part in taking the index – the S&P/ASX 200 (Index: ^AXJO) (ASX: XJO) into negative territory – down 0.1% at 5,426.8 points.

If commodity prices continue to fall, we could soon see BHP's share price fall as far as $15 or below. The 52-week low of $14.06 was reached earlier this year, and it would only take a 20% fall to see the share price hit the $15 mark – not as fanciful as some readers might think.

Today's 3.1% fall was mostly due to the falling oil price. Brent crude oil dropped 2.8% to US$47.04 a barrel, and expectations of some stability in the commodity price have been dealt a huge blow. Ongoing oversupply and low prices mean some higher cost oil production has dropped out of the market.

But as the chart below shows, active US oil rigs are beginning to increase as shale drillers become more efficient and capable of making profits even at these low oil prices.

US oil rig count Aug 2016
Source: Baker Hughes

BHP has also been hit by a fall in the iron ore price. The iron ore price fell to the lowest level in almost a month overnight at US$58.97 a tonne. It's still up 35% so far this year, but the outlook for iron ore prices doesn't appear to be all that positive.

Iron ore and petroleum products make up a huge portion of BHP's revenues and earnings.

BHP is also dependent on coal and copper prices which have so far fared better, but the short to medium term outlook isn't all that positive for many commodities.

You can also add BHP spin-off South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) and Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) to the list of stocks at risk as well.

Foolish takeaway

Bargain hunters who picked up BHP shares when they fell to $14 earlier this year have made a nice profit, but they may want to take some profits off the table. It took just two months for the BHP share price to go from trading at levels around today's price to hit $14.

Motley Fool writer/analyst Mike King doesn't own shares in any companies mentioned. You can follow Mike on Twitter @TMFKinga The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on ⏸️ Investing

Close up of baby looking puzzled
Retail Shares

What has happened to the Baby Bunting (ASX:BBN) share price this year?

It's been a volatile year so far for the Aussie nursery retailer. We take a closer look

Read more »

woman holds sign saying 'we need change' at climate change protest
ETFs

3 ASX ETFs that invest in companies fighting climate change

If you want to shift some of your investments into more ethical companies, exchange-traded funds can offer a good option

Read more »

a jewellery store attendant stands at a cabinet displaying opulent necklaces and earrings featuring diamonds and precious stones.
⏸️ Investing

The Michael Hill (ASX: MHJ) share price poised for growth

Investors will be keeping an eye on the Michael Hill International Limited (ASX: MHJ) share price today. The keen interest…

Read more »

ASX shares buy unstoppable asx share price represented by man in superman cape pointing skyward
⏸️ Investing

The Atomos (ASX:AMS) share price is up 15% in a week

The Atomos (ASX: AMS) share price has surged 15% this week. Let's look at what's ahead as the company build…

Read more »

Two people in suits arm wrestle on a black and white chess board.
Retail Shares

How does the Temple & Webster (ASX:TPW) share price stack up against Nick Scali (ASX:NCK)?

How does the Temple & Webster (ASX: TPW) share price stack up against rival furniture retailer Nick Scali Limited (ASX:…

Read more »

A medical researcher works on a bichip, indicating share price movement in ASX tech companies
Healthcare Shares

The Aroa (ASX:ARX) share price has surged 60% since its IPO

The Aroa (ASX:ARX) share price has surged 60% since the Polynovo (ASX: PNV) competitor listed on the ASX in July.…

Read more »

asx investor daydreaming about US shares
⏸️ How to Invest

How to buy US shares from Australia right now

If you have been wondering how to buy US shares from Australia to gain exposure from the highly topical market,…

Read more »

⏸️ Investing

Why Fox (NASDAQ:FOX) might hurt News Corp (ASX:NWS) shareholders

News Corporation (ASX: NWS) might be facing some existential threats from its American cousins over the riots on 6 January

Read more »