Late on Wednesday morning the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the June quarter consumer price inflation report. According to Bloomberg, economists are expecting a disappointing reading of 0.4%.
This reading would mean the annual rate drops to just 1.1%, which would be the slowest annual increase in consumer prices since the turn of the century. Should economists be on the money with their predictions, then it is increasingly likely that next week the Reserve Bank is going to be forced to cut interest rates once again.
According to cash rate futures the market is currently pricing in a 70% chance of an interest rate cut to 1.5% at next week's RBA board meeting. If this were to happen then I believe the Australian dollar would head lower against the greenback. Whilst this wouldn't be great news for importers, it certainly could prove to be a boost to these two shares:
Ardent Leisure Group (ASX: AAD)
Although it is best known for its Goodlife Health Clubs, Dreamworld, and AMF Bowling brands, the company's growing US-based Main Event brand is likely to be the growth catalyst in the next few years in my opinion. The Main Event segment provides almost one-third of the company's total sales, having grown them by 48% year-on-year in the first half. Management is planning on expanding the number of Main Event centres by 33% this year, which could be a boost to future earnings growth if done successfully. I think Ardent Leisure would make a great long-term investment.
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE)
The Americas market is Treasury Wine's largest market based on sales. After delivering half year sales growth of 22% year-on-year, it currently accounts for 42% of its total sales. The majority of this growth came from currency tailwinds, with only 3% of it coming organically. This was based on an exchange rate of 73.5 US cents, so anything below this level will be a boost for the wine giant moving forward. If the Australian dollar were to drop toward 70 US cents then I believe Treasury Wine Estates would be a good investment. Until then I would suggest holding fire.
