Why now is NOT the right time to buy gold stocks

G’day Foolish readers,

The old saying goes there’s always a bull market somewhere.

Well yesterday, it was well and truly in gold stocks, the All Ordinaries Gold sub-index soaring around 12%, its biggest percentage gain in close to three years.

The gold bugs will no doubt be singing from the rooftops, their bearishness vindicated at last. “Paper money is dead, long live gold” they’ll be chanting.

Don’t go there, Foolish reader.

1) Don’t go chasing the latest fad.
2) Don’t invest your hard earned money into an industry that has truly awful economics.
3) You have no control over, nor any clue, as to where the price of gold might be tomorrow, next week or next year. To suggest otherwise is pure speculation.

My guess is you’ve already lost many thousands of dollars buying highly speculative mining stocks.

Am I right?

I’ve tried it too… and lost. Idiot.

I’ve even lost money buying BHP Billiton (ASX: BHP)… even though shares in the Big Australian have now jumped 35% higher from their 2016 low.

Today, BHP is neither a growth stock, a dividend stock or a value stock. It’s a timing stock, pure and simple. I still hold, but not with a huge amount of conviction.

Overnight the Dow jumped 113 points higher, closing in on 18,000 again, as Fed chair Janet Yellen put a positive spin on the US economic outlook.

“Don’t bet on the end of the bull market just yet,” said The Australian Financial Review.

According to that publication, technical strategists at HSBC say stocks are poised for a higher move, Murray Gunn and team say industrials and the “FANG” stocks could break out, and Fundstrat Global Advisors have a target on the S&P 500 that is more than 10% higher than now.

What could possibly go wrong?

Back in the real world, and back home here in Australia, we continue to bumble along.

Low inflation. Low growth. Low interest rates. Lower politicians.

Hardly sets the pulse running, huh?

Yet the S&P/ASX 200 Index is up 9% over the past couple of months. Nothing low about that.

And according to BetaShares chief economist David Bassanese, there’s a chance the market could be re-rated even higher if interest rates remain below historic levels.

According to the Financial Review, Bassanese argues the S&P/ASX 200 Index could trade on a forward P/E ratio of 20 times earnings if dividend payout ratios remain at about 80%.

That would imply the ASX could rise another 25% from here. Nothing low about that.

Dividend shares, anyone?

If you are interested in quality dividend shares, then I would recommend this top dividend share instead. A strong yield and potential share price gains make this a great investment idea in my opinion.

Our Top Dividend Stock for 2016

Our resident dividend expert names his Top Dividend Share for 2016. Not only are the shares dirt cheap, the company is trading on a fat fully franked dividend yield. Simply click here to gain access to this comprehensive FREE investment report, including the name of this fast growing ASX dividend share. No credit card required!

Bruce Jackson has an interest in BHP Billiton.

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