The latest study that rates the fixed wireless network component of the National Broadband Network as "world leading" may have inadvertently increased the chance of Netcomm Wireless Ltd (ASX: NTC) scoring a lucrative offshore contract.
The study conducted by Ovum and published on NBN's website (NBN is the operator of the National Broadband Network) compared wireless networks from 21 other countries and found that Australians were getting some of the fastest internet speeds, and most reliable performance from the cost effective network.
Our fixed wireless network can reach speeds of 50 megabits per second (Mbps) for downloads and 20Mbps for uploads.
Most investors wouldn't have read the report. I don't think many read anything from the NBN – and who can blame them?
Telcos like Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS), M2 Group Ltd (ASX:MTU) and TPG Telecom Ltd (ASX: TPM) – especially if it acquires iiNet Limited (ASX:IIN) – could be winners from selling fixed wireless broadband, but it's Netcomm that will be in the box seat for a number of reasons.
Netcomm is the sole supplier of fixed wireless components to the NBN and the company has indicated that it is planning or already running trials in other countries for fixed wireless and machine-to-machine (M2M) solutions. M2M refers to disparate devices that are connected to a network like remote medical monitoring devices and smart meters.
There are rumours that Netcomm has been shortlisted along with a Taiwanese competitor for an AT&T fixed wireless contract in the US and the Ovum report can only do good for Netcomm's reputation.
But there is only so much credit you should put into rumours, although the Ovum study does highlight Netcomm's undemanding valuation even though the stock has rallied 50% since the start of the year.
The NBN is looking to connect 600,000 households to its fixed wireless service, and so far, only 8% of households have been connected to the network.
While it's foolish to think that there will be a 100% take-up rate for the service, the statistics show that the supply of fixed wireless equipment to the NBN alone could conceivably add $40-$50 million to its topline for the next three years – even on a conservative 60% adoption rate.
In contrast, Netcomm posted operating revenue of $64.5 million in 2013-14 and I am forecasting its top-line to increase to $73 million when it reports its 2014-15 profit next month.
Sales should jump comfortably over $100 million for the current financial year, and that's without the help of a significant offshore contract.
This is why in my opinion it is only a matter of time before Netcomm's share price goes over $1.
Shares in the small cap tech company are trading 2.8% higher at 73.5 cents during lunch time trade.
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