Will the market be able to build on this on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall

The Australian share market looks set for a poor start to the week following declines on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 20 points or 0.2% lower. In the United States, the Dow Jones was down 1.05%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.4%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 0.9%.

Oil prices rise

It could be a positive start to the week for ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) after oil prices pushed higher on Friday night. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was up 1.8% to US$67.02 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was up 2.9% to US$72.87 a barrel. Since then, the US has launched attacks on Iran, which could lead to higher oil prices when Asian trade begins.

ASX 200 shares going ex-div

A number of ASX 200 shares are going ex-dividend this morning and could trade lower. This includes Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM), Nick Scali Limited (ASX: NCK), Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG), Pinnacle Investment Management Group Ltd (ASX: PNI), and Steadfast Group Ltd (ASX: SDF). Fortescue will be paying shareholders a 62 cents per share dividend at the end of the month.

Gold price pushes higher

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a good start to the week after the gold price jumped on Friday night. According to CNBC, the gold futures price was up 1% to US$5,247.9 an ounce. The precious metal is likely to rise further once trade begins in response to the war in the middle east.

Buy Coles shares

The team at Bell Potter thinks Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) shares are in the buy zone this week. In response to its half-year results, the broker has retained its buy rating with a trimmed price target of $22.35. It said: "Continued delivery against 'Simplify & Save' initiatives ($133m delivered in 1H25 and $698m to date vs. a target of $1Bn by FY27e) and generating a return on ADC/CFC investments (~$1.45Bn investment). COL has returned to a discount to WOW, though this is likely warranted given the lower level of forecast growth."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Steadfast Group report?

• Underlying diluted EPS (NPAT): 12.4 cps, up 6.9%
• Underlying NPATA: $161.5 million, up 6.3%
• Statutory NPAT: $127.0 million (1H25: $106.4 million)
• Underlying NPAT: $137.5 million, up 7.3%
• Underlying EBITA: $293.6 million, up 12.6%
• Interim fully franked dividend: 8.2 cps, up from 7.8 cps

What else do investors need to know?

Steadfast's Australasian broker network delivered 4.4% gross written premium (GWP) growth to $6.4 billion, supported by performance improvements, acquisitions, and careful expense management. The underwriting agencies segment contributed $1.2 billion GWP, up 3%, and international businesses recorded a $9.5 million uplift in underlying EBITA thanks to recent acquisitions and organic growth.

The Board is undertaking an independent workplace culture diagnostic with EB&Co to ensure Steadfast's culture aligns with company values and identify areas for improvement. The company also confirmed the promotion of Hannah Lee to Chief Financial Officer.

What did Steadfast Group management say?

Managing Director & CEO Robert Kelly AM said:

The 1H26 results continued our record of strong growth in revenue and profit and reflects a strong underlying business and the Group's resilient and adaptable business model. The executive leadership team remains focused on delivering earnings growth and maintaining discipline in the execution of our business strategy to deliver sustainable and solid returns to our shareholders.

What's next for Steadfast Group?

Looking ahead, Steadfast reaffirmed its FY26 guidance and expects underlying NPATA between $365 million and $375 million, and underlying NPAT between $315 million and $325 million, with diluted EPS growth guidance of 6% to 10%. Management remains committed to its broker hubbing strategy, operational efficiency programs, and exploring further acquisition opportunities.

Key guidance assumptions include modest increases in insurance premium pricing and continued focus on cost and margin discipline across the group.

Steadfast Group share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Steadfast shares have declined 27%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 9% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Steadfast Group lifts revenue, profit, and dividend in 1H26 earnings update appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are dropping:

ARB Corporation Ltd (ASX: ARB)

The ARB share price is down 15.5% to $20.76. This follows the release of the after-market automotive parts manufacturer's half-year results. ARB reported a 1% decline in sales revenue to $358 million and a 17.2% decline in profit after tax to $42.2 million. Looking ahead, management advised that it expects sales margins in the second half to be broadly in line with the prior corresponding period. It also advised that its order book remains healthy and investment in new stores and ecommerce continues.

Austal Ltd (ASX: ASB)

The Austal share price is down 11% to $5.00. This appears to have been driven by a broker out of Citi this morning. According to the note, the broker has downgraded this shipbuilder's shares to a sell rating with a reduced price target of $4.50 (from $6.90). Even after today's heavy decline, this still implies potential downside of 10% for investors over the next 12 months.

Mader Group Ltd (ASX: MAD)

The Mader share price is down 10% to $7.97. This follows the release of the specialist technical services provider's half-year results. Mader revealed net profit after tax of $30.5 million, which was an increase of 17% over the prior corresponding period. Despite this, the company decided to not pay a dividend in order to reduce debt. It said: "The Group has accelerated its pathway to a net cash position by deferring the 1H FY26 interim dividend, bringing forward achievement of its net cash target and strengthening liquidity to support a more aggressive approach to organic and inorganic growth opportunities."

Steadfast Group Ltd (ASX: SDF)

The Steadfast share price is down 4% to $4.26. Investors are selling the insurance broker network company's shares today after it revealed that its long-serving founder-CEO, Robert Kelly AM, is stepping down. Commenting on his exit, Mr Kelly said: "It has been a privilege to play a leadership role in the creation of Steadfast. I am extremely proud of the achievements of the Company; its strong track record clearly demonstrates the strength of the business model and positions the business to deliver sustainable value to our shareholders for many years to come." Mr Kelly co-founded Steadfast in 1996 and led the company's listing on the ASX in August 2013.

The post Why ARB, Austal, Mader, and Steadfast shares are dropping today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In morning trade, the ASX 200 stock is down 1.5% to $4.37.

Why is this ASX 200 stock falling?

Investors have been hitting the sell button today after the insurance broker network company revealed that its long-serving founder-CEO, Robert Kelly AM, is stepping down.

Mr Kelly co-founded Steadfast in 1996 and led the company's listing on the ASX in August 2013.

It notes that under his stewardship, Steadfast has transformed into Australasia's largest general insurance broker network and group of underwriting agencies and expanded internationally.

According to the release, the leadership transition plan agreed by the board and Mr Kelly follows succession planning discussions which have been underway for some time and are designed to enable a smooth change of leadership.

The ASX 200 stock's chair, Ms Vicki Allen, revealed that its search process for a replacement is progressing. She also advised that the Board has confidence in the capability and experience of Steadfast's executive leadership team. As a result, internal candidates are being considered alongside external candidates as part of a thorough process.

As things stand, the Steadfast board expects to announce the appointment of its new CEO by the release of its FY 2026 results in August.

What's next?

Importantly, this won't necessarily be the end of Robert Kelly AM's involvement with Steadfast.

The release notes that he will remain on the board after his retirement and transition to a non-executive director role.

The ASX 200 stock advised that it feels continuity of industry relationships and an orderly transition is in the interests of all shareholders. Mr Kelly will seek election as a non-executive director at the next annual general meeting.

Commenting on his exit, Robert Kelly AM said:

It has been a privilege to play a leadership role in the creation of Steadfast. I am extremely proud of the achievements of the Company; its strong track record clearly demonstrates the strength of the business model and positions the business to deliver sustainable value to our shareholders for many years to come.

Ms Vicki Allen adds:

In initiating and agreeing this transition plan with the Board, Robert has demonstrated his strong commitment and service to Steadfast. Robert's contribution cannot be understated. His leadership has enabled Steadfast to grow into Australasia's largest general insurance broker network and group of underwriting agencies with a strong track record of growth.

This comes at an unfortunate time for the company, with Steadfast shares recently sinking amid concerns that its business model could be disrupted and ultimately made redundant by artificial intelligence models.

The post Guess which ASX 200 stock is dropping on founder-CEO exit news appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here's why they are falling:

Amplitude Energy Ltd (ASX: AEL)

The Amplitude Energy share price is down 20% to $2.56. Investors have been selling this energy company's shares following the release of disappointing drilling results for the Elanora-1 exploration well. It advised that preliminary drilling and logging data recorded no elevated gas readings in the primary target Waarre A reservoir. As a result, management believes the reservoir is water-bearing. Elanora-1 will now be plugged and a sidetrack into the Isabella prospect will be drilled as planned.

G8 Education Ltd (ASX: GEM)

The G8 Education share price is down 18% to 51.75 cents. This follows the release of a market update from the childcare operator. G8 Education revealed that it plans to make a goodwill impairment of approximately $350 million in its full year financial results. This reflects projected future occupancy based on current occupancy levels, current and expected supply and demand levels, and future fee increases and the impact of cost of living pressures. Making things even worse, the company has decided to pause its on-market share buyback and suspend its dividend.

Pmet Resources (ASX: PMT)

The Pmet Resources share price is down 10% to 58.25 cents. This has been driven by news that the lithium developer is pursuing a C$130 million funding boost. This is expected to be achieved through a flow-through private placement and a public offering. It said: "With this funding, we are well positioned to deliver an updated Feasibility Study optimised for CV5, unlock the value of the world-class caesium discovery we made last year, integrate valuable critical minerals coproducts like caesium and tantalum into our development plan, and continue to unlock value across the broader Property through ongoing exploration."

Steadfast Group Ltd (ASX: SDF)

The Steadfast share price is down 10% to $4.47. Investors have been selling the insurance broker network company's shares amid fears that it could be disrupted by artificial intelligence. This follows news that ChatGPT's owner, OpenAI, has made available an insurance industry app that allows users to browse, research, and compare insurance directly through the platform's new app library. Investors may be concerned that insurance brokers could become redundant in the near future.

The post Why Amplitude Energy, G8 Education, Pmet Resources, and Steadfast shares are sinking today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It's been a tough few months for the insurance broker network company. Its shares crashed over 21% in October following news that its Managing Director had temporarily stepped aside amid an investigation into a workplace complaint against him.

On the 30th of October, Steadfast shares were placed in a trading halt with the company saying at the time the halt was necessary, "as Steadfast investigates a workplace complaint against a senior executive". The company immediately appointed Tim Mathieson, CEO Australasian Broking, to the role of acting CEO.

Steadfast shares struggled to recover the losses and ended 2025 just over 10% lower. The declines have picked up pace in 2026 so far.

What is causing Steadfast shares to tumble?

There isn't any price-sensitive news out of the insurance company to explain today's sell-off. 

It looks more likely that today's sharp decline is a perfect storm of events that are leading investors to sell up.

Broader market sentiment put insurance stocks under pressure in late 2025, and this has continued through to 2026.

At the same time, Steadfast's leadership and reputational headwinds continue to weigh on investor confidence, and uncertainty about the company's upcoming financial results announcement could also be causing jitters.

Steadfast is expected to release its results for the first half of FY26 later this month on the 25th of February.

In August, Steadfast released guidance for the current financial year, saying it expected underlying net profit to come in at $315 to $325 million, based on achieving a 3% to 5% increase in the pricing of insurance premiums in Australia.

Can Steadfast shares recover this year?

Despite the headwinds and dwindling share price, it looks like analysts are very optimistic that Steadfast can turn itself around this year.

TradingView data shows that eight out of 11 analysts currently have a buy or strong buy rating on Steadfast shares. Another three analysts have a hold rating on the stock.

The annual estimates are high, too. The maximum target price over the next 12 months is $6.90 a piece, which implies a potential 55.76% upside ahead, at the time of writing.

Even the minimum target price represents a decent opportunity for investors. Some expect the shares could climb to $5 a piece this year, which would still imply a 12.87% gain from the current trading price.

The post Why are Steadfast shares crashing 11% today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Steadfast Group report?

• Completed $127.7 million in acquisitions year-to-date for FY26 up to 30 November 2025
• Average year-to-date base insurance premium increase of 2.4% across the network
• Head office and subsidiary cost-saving measures expected to deliver $3.6 million in annualised savings (pro rata for 2H26)
• Australasian broker network grew from 402 to 421 brokers, with a ~25% increase in broker licence fee revenue for FY26
• Strong uplift in revenue mix, with a strategic shift from commission to fee revenue
• Ongoing investment in technology and underwriting agency modernisation

What else do investors need to know?

Steadfast continues to manage its expense base carefully, reporting reductions in non-critical marketing, events, and head office roles, while leveraging group scale to manage vendor spend more efficiently. The board has approved an increase in the group's maximum gearing ratio to 40% (excluding premium funding borrowings) to support further growth and acquisitions.

The company's acquisition strategy remains active, with $128 million of Australasian acquisitions completed so far in FY26, and a further $202 million in the "trapped capital pipeline" expected to complete by year-end, including opportunities such as Rothbury in New Zealand. Steadfast also highlighted successful consolidation and integration initiatives within its broker and underwriting networks.

What's next for Steadfast Group?

Looking ahead, Steadfast will maintain its dual focus on organic and inorganic growth, particularly across the Australasian and international insurance networks. The group sees further opportunity in agency hubbing and technology investment to drive efficiency and client outcomes.

Steadfast is also working cooperatively with the ACCC as Australia's new merger control regime begins on 1 January 2026, aiming to keep acquisition processes smooth and regulatory-compliant. The company's expanding global footprint, especially following recent European and US acquisitions, should provide further scale benefits in the coming year.

Steadfast Group share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Steadfast shares have declined 14%, underperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 3% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Steadfast Group share price: $127.7m in acquisitions, premium growth in FY26 investor update appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

With that in mind we look at two ASX companies – an insurance brokerage company and a tech company which provides mining software solutions – that analysts have recently tipped as sells (courtesy of The Bull).

Limited upside left for this ASX 300 share

The first company you might want to sell is RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd (ASX: RUL).

That's according to Medallion Financial Group's Stuart Bromley.

RPMGlobal shares are up 0.3% in late morning trade on Friday, changing hands for $4.915 apiece. This sees the share price up 63.8% in 2025.

"RUL is a high-quality mining software business, operating as a pure play software-as-a-service provider to major mining clients and state governments," Bromley said.

So, why is he issuing a sell recommendation on the ASX 300 share?

Bromley explained:

RUL received a takeover offer at $5 a share. A RUL shareholder vote regarding the takeover proposal is scheduled for December 19. The stock was trading at $4.91 on November 27, so upside is limited.

That takeover offer was lobbed by United States based mining equipment manufacturer Caterpillar Inc (NYSE: CAT). RPMGlobal announced the acquisition deal on 1 September. And investors responded by sending the share price rocketing 22.8% on the day.

Bromley conclude, "With many quality large market capitalisation stocks now trading at meaningful discounts, we believe it's more beneficial to sell and redeploy the capital into more attractive opportunities."

Which brings us to…

Company facing earnings pressure

Peak Asset Management's Niv Dagan believes it is time for investors to sell Steadfast Group Ltd (ASX: SDF).

"Steadfast operates a large general insurance broker network," he said.

Steadfast shares are up 2.2% at time of writing on Friday, swapping hands for $5.11 each. But the ASX 300 share has underperformed this year, with the Steadfast share price down 12.6% in 2025. Losses which will have been modestly eased by the stock's 3.8% fully franked dividend yield.

And Dagan believes the company will struggle to outperform in the year ahead.

"Steadfast has materially reduced fiscal year 2026 premium rate expectations, cutting Australian premium growth guidance from between 3% and 5% to between 1% and 2%," he noted.

Dagan added:

While underlying net profit after tax guidance remains between $315 million and $325 million in fiscal year 2026, the company is increasingly reliant on acquisitions and cost-out initiatives to meet earnings targets.

Connecting the dots, Dagan said, "Structural pressures in insurance broking are intensifying. The shares have fallen from $6.63 on October 28 to trade at $5.225 on November 27."

The post Sell alert! Why analysts are calling time on these 2 ASX 300 stocks appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

To narrow things down, let's see what analysts are saying about the stocks listed below, courtesy of The Bull. Here's what they are recommending:

Carma Ltd (ASX: CMA)

Analysts at Peak Asset Management think that this used vehicles platform provider's shares could be a buy after falling heavily since their IPO.

They also highlight the appointment of the highly experience Owen Wilson as chairman as a reason to be positive. Peak said:

The company's recent initial public offering generated much interest at $2.70 a share. But listing during the recent sharemarket rout has impacted CMA's share price. The shares were trading at $1.70 on November 27. CMA's online technology platform involves buying and selling used cars from a warehouse facility rather than traditional car yards. We believe CMA has the right management and board to disrupt the industry in Australia. We're particularly encouraged by the inclusion of the former REA Group chief executive Owen Wilson taking on the role as chairman.

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)

The team at Medallion Financial Group believes that this industrial property giant is well-placed for growth thanks to its focus on data centres and artificial intelligence-driven infrastructure. However, it only rates Goodman as a hold right now. It explains:

Goodman Group continues to position itself as a global leader in industrial property, supported by high quality tenants, such as Amazon, Samsung, Telstra, Coles and Australia Post. Its portfolio remains robust, with strong occupancy amid long lease terms and a conservative balance sheet relative to peers. With most new development geared towards data centres and artificial intelligence-driven infrastructure, Goodman is well placed to benefit from long term structural growth. We view Goodman as a high quality, long term firm that we're happy to hold.

Steadfast Group Ltd (ASX: SDF)

Over at Peak Asset Management, its analysts have also given their verdict on this insurance broker network provider.

Unfortunately, due to intensifying structural pressure, Peak rates Steadfast as a sell. It explains:

Steadfast operates a large general insurance broker network. Steadfast has materially reduced fiscal year 2026 premium rate expectations, cutting Australian premium growth guidance from between 3 per cent and 5 per cent to between 1 per cent and 2 per cent. While underlying net profit after tax  guidance remains between $315 million and $325 million in fiscal year 2026, the company is increasingly reliant on acquisitions and cost-out initiatives to meet earnings targets. Structural pressures in insurance broking are intensifying. The shares have fallen from $6.63 on October 28 to trade at $5.225 on November 27.

The post What are analysts saying about Goodman and these ASX stocks? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In afternoon trade, the insurance broker network's shares are down 5% to $5.10.

Why are Steadfast shares sinking today?

Today's decline appears to have been driven by the release of a broker note out of Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) this morning.

Macquarie has been looking into the industry and highlights that commission rate cuts are accelerating. It said:

Our market analysis has uncovered an accelerating pace of commission rate cuts. Although Home and Personal Motor products are generally not profitable for insurance brokers, as these products are pushed into the direct channel, we are concerned customer retention for Business Package could deteriorate.

In addition, the broker thinks that the weakness in premium rates that Steadfast has been battling could stay for longer than previously expected. It adds:

We now forecast weakness to last longer than the next 12 months, putting pressure on SDF's ability to hub their wholly owned insurance brokers, which has not necessarily been successful in the past.

This comes at a time when the ASX 200 stock has announced a change of leadership, which is something Macquarie notes can weigh on the performance of a share price. The broker explains:

Our ESG analysts recently reviewed stock price performance for companies undergoing executive changes. 12-month underperformance was witnessed across founder exits, internal replacements and ESG related exits.

Downgraded

In light of the above, this morning Macquarie has downgraded Steadfast shares to a neutral rating (from outperform) and slashed its valuation to $4.90 (from $7.00). This is a touch below where its shares are currently trading.

Commenting on its downgrade and new valuation, the broker said:

Downgrade to Neutral (from Outperform). As commission rates fall and the premium rate cycle threatens to be softer for longer, we downgrade our recommendation to Neutral (from Outperform).

Valuation methodology change: In addition to changing our PERel/DCF methodology to PERel only as the premium cycle slows, we now incorporate a 25% discount reflecting: #1) heightened regulatory attention for Strata, ACCC M&A intervention; ASIC insider trading investigation; #2) increased weight applied to cost-out as the premium rate cycle slows, something which has not been successful in the past; and #3) long term succession risk of the Group CEO at the same time as the CFO and Chair have exited.

The post Why are Steadfast shares sinking 5% today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Macquarie analysts have reiterated an outperform rating on the insurance broking group, maintaining their 12-month price target of $7, which represents an estimated 37% total shareholder return from the current price of around $5.27.

Broker confidence remains intact

In a new research note released on 6 November, Macquarie said it expects Steadfast to continue delivering solid earnings despite near-term weakness in several product lines.

According to the report, pricing growth was subdued in October 2025, particularly across Workers Compensation, Home, and Strata insurance, with only Personal Motor showing strength.

Even so, Macquarie estimates Steadfast's product mix achieved an average +2.2% premium increase in the September quarter, aligning closely with company guidance.

The analysts emphasised that Steadfast's shares are now trading at an 8.6% discount to international peers, well below the stock's historical premium, leaving valuation support for upside if growth normalises.

What Steadfast does

Steadfast is Australasia's largest general insurance broker network and underwriting agency group, with a growing footprint across Asia, Europe, and the United States.

Its network includes more than 450 brokerages, which gain access to superior market pricing, exclusive insurance products, and back-office support through Steadfast's scale. The group's brokers place coverage across more than 160 tailored products, helping businesses and individuals manage risk more effectively.

Steadfast also operates the region's largest underwriting agency group, designing and distributing specialist insurance solutions to both network and non-network brokers. Supporting these operations are a suite of complementary businesses — including technology, premium funding, reinsurance, legal, and risk services — that strengthen the group's offering and enhance broker efficiency.

Together, these segments form a scalable platform that has delivered consistent revenue and profit growth since Steadfast listed on the ASX in 2013.

Outlook and valuation

The investment bank kept its valuation unchanged, underpinned by forecasts for revenue growth of 12.4% in FY26 and operating earnings (EBITDA) growth of 15.9%.

Earnings per share are projected to rise 6.6% next year, with a fully franked dividend yield of about 4%.

Macquarie describes the company's ongoing expansion into the United States as a key long-term opportunity, noting that the ability to "maximise returns on a US roll-out is key to Steadfast's long-term value."

The broker concludes, "At current valuations, we retain our Outperform recommendation."

Context behind recent share pressure

Steadfast shares have fallen roughly 20% over the past fortnight amid company-specific headlines.

In late October, the company announced that Managing Director Robert Kelly had stepped aside on a temporary basis while an independent investigation into a workplace complaint proceeds.

He remains on full pay, and Steadfast's board has appointed Tim Mathieson as acting CEO until the process concludes.

At the same time, broader market weakness and sector downgrades have weighed on sentiment toward insurance brokers.

Foolish bottom line

While short-term uncertainty may linger, Macquarie's view is that the company's earnings trajectory and network scale remain compelling.

If its forecasts prove accurate, Steadfast shares could have meaningful upside over the year ahead.

The post Macquarie tips 37% upside for Steadfast shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are dropping:

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)

The Evolution Mining share price is down over 2.5% to $10.57. Investors have been selling this gold miner's shares today after the price of gold pulled back. It isn't just Evolution Mining shares that are falling. This has led to the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold index tumbling by 1.6% at the time of writing.

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC)

The Lynas Rare Earths share price is down 6% to $14.33. This is despite there being no news out of the rare earths producer on Monday. However, it is worth noting that a number of rare earths shares have been under pressure since the US and China made progress on trade talks and rare earths export controls.

Resmed Inc. (ASX: RMD)

The Resmed share price is down 4% to $37.86. This follows a poor night of trade for the sleep disorder treatment company's NYSE listed shares on Friday, which has reversed its post-results gains. One broker that is likely to see this as a buying opportunity is Ord Minnett. This morning, the broker retained its buy rating and $48.80 price target on the company's shares. This implies potential upside of 29% for investors over the next 12 months. Ord Minnett was impressed with ResMed's strong performance during the first quarter and has lifted its earnings estimates for FY 2026 and FY 2027. It expects double digit earnings growth each year.

Steadfast Group Ltd (ASX: SDF)

The Steadfast share price is down almost 6% to $5.28. This may have been driven by another note out of Ord Minnett. According to the note, the broker has downgraded this insurance broker network operator's shares to a hold rating with a trimmed price target of $5.80. This follows the release of a disappointing trading update and the temporary standing down of its CEO, Robert Kelly, due to an investigation into a workplace complaint made against him. It said: "Mr Kelly AM will remain on full pay for the duration of the investigation. Given that the investigation into the allegations against Mr Kelly AM is ongoing, and that to date no allegations against him have been substantiated, it would not be appropriate to comment further at this time. The Board will provide further details to the market once this investigation is completed."

The post Why Evolution Mining, Lynas, ResMed, and Steadfast shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here's why they are falling:

Aeris Resources Ltd (ASX: AIS)

The Aeris Resources share price is down over 12% to 45.5 cents. This morning, this copper miner announced that has received firm commitments to raise $80 million via an institutional placement. These funds are being raised at a discount of 45 cents per share. Commenting on the capital raising, Aeris' executive chair, Andre Labuschagne, said: "This inbound-led placement received strong support from high-quality institutional investors, both in Australia and offshore. The capital raise allows us to deleverage our balance sheet and accelerate exploration and growth initiatives across the group."

Humm Group Ltd (ASX: HUM)

The Humm Group share price is down 12% to 58.5 cents. This follows the release of the lender's quarterly update. Humm revealed that new loan origination volumes were down 14% to $845 million during the quarter. This was driven by double-digit declines in both commercial and consumer volumes. Management advised that this reflects subdued demand, increased competitive pricing pressure, and a strategic decision to originate higher credit quality assets.

Mayne Pharma Group Ltd (ASX: MYX)

The Mayne Pharma share price is down 32% to $4.19. This has been driven by news that the pharmaceuticals company's proposed takeover could be on the brink of collapsing. This follows a letter from the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB). It advised that its "preliminary view is that the Proposed Acquisition would be contrary to the national interest, on the grounds that it would negatively impact the Australian economy and community." Mayne Pharma notes that the letter also states that the Treasurer is considering whether he should make orders prohibiting the acquisition.

Steadfast Group Ltd (ASX: SDF)

The Steadfast share price is down 9.5% to $5.61. This follows news that the insurance broker network operator's CEO is stepping aside following a workplace complaint. It stated: "Robert Kelly AM, the Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer has chosen to stand aside on a temporary basis to enable an external investigation to progress into a workplace complaint made against him." The company has appointed Tim Mathieson, CEO Australasian Broking, to the role of acting CEO, effective immediately.

The post Why Aeris Resources, Humm, Mayne Pharma, and Steadfast shares are sinking today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Steadfast shares were placed in a trading halt on Thursday with the company saying at the time the halt was necessary, "as Steadfast investigates a workplace complaint against a senior executive".

Mr Kelly was not named initially.

The company then issued a follow up statement to the ASX late on Thursday, saying Mr Kelly, "has chosen to stand aside on a temporary basis to enable an external investigation to progress into a workplace complaint made against him''.

Steadfast said Mr Kelly would remain on full pay while the investigation was completed.

The company added:

Given that the investigation into the allegations against Mr Kelly AM is ongoing, and that no allegations against him have been substantiated, it would not be appropriate to comment further at this time.

The board has appointed Tim Mathieson to the role of acting chief executive officer "effective immediately and (he) will continue in that role until the conclusion of the investigation".

Annual meeting scheduled today

Steadfast is scheduled to hold its annual general meeting this morning, Friday 31 October, where two equity grants to Mr Kelly, and the approval of benefits should he leave the company are due to be voted on.

The notes to that resolution say that Mr Kelly, who is 78 years old, "has confirmed his intention to remain as managing director and CEO of Steadfast until at least 31 December 2026''.

The notes to the resolution also indicate that the termination benefits discussed are limited to circumstances where Mr Kelly leaves in the case of issues such as genuine retirement or redundancy and "do not involve poor performance''.

Steadfast Group shares last changed hands at $6.20, valuing the insurance brokerage company at $6.89 billion.

Company performing well

The company in August reported underlying revenue of $1.83 billion, up 8.9%, and underlying net profit of $295.5 million, up 17.2%.

A recent ASX release from the company indicated that Mr Kelly owns 3.1 million Steadfast shares, worth $19.1 million at the current share price, and another 119,086 deferred equity awards, "vesting of which is subject to the terms and conditions of the relevant incentive scheme plans''.

The company in August released guidance for the current financial year, saying it expected underlying net profit to come in at $315 to $325 million, based on achieving a 3% to 5% increase in the pricing of insurance premiums in Australia.

The post Which major insurance group's managing director has stepped aside pending an investigation appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Shares in the insurance brokerage company closed yesterday trading for $6.63. In afternoon trade on Wednesday, shares are swapping hands for $6.47 apiece, down 2.5%. This sees the company commanding a market cap of $7.2 billion.

For some context the ASX 200 is down 0.9% at this same time.

Despite today's underperformance, Steadfast shares have outperformed the ASX 200 over the past year, gaining 17.6% compared to the 8.3% one-year gains posted by the benchmark index.

The ASX 200 stock also paid out 19.5 cents a share in fully franked dividends over the full year. At the current share price, that sees Steadfast stock trading on a fully franked dividend yield of 3.0%.

Looking ahead, Sequoia Wealth Management's Peter Day envisions more outperformance to come from Steadfast (courtesy of The Bull).

Here's why.

ASX 200 stock on the growth path

"Steadfast operates a large general insurance broker network," said Day, who has a buy recommendation on the ASX 200 stock.

The first reason he's bullish on Steadfast shares is the company's international growth prospects.

"It has growing operations in Asia and Europe. It's also expanding into the United States. The ability to maximise returns on a US roll-out is key to SDF's long term value," Day said.

Then there's Steadfast's enviable FY 2025 results, released on 28 August, which included a significant dividend boost.

Day noted:

The company delivered a strong result in fiscal year 2025. Underlying revenue of $1.825 billion was up 8.9% on the prior corresponding period. Underlying net profit after tax of $295.5 million was up 17.2%. The final fully franked dividend of 11.7 cents a share was up 14%.

And if the ASX 200 stock can meet is FY 2026 guidance, it looks well-placed for another year of outperformance.

"The company has guided for underlying net profit after tax to range between $315 million and $325 million in fiscal year 2026," Day said.

That represents potential profit growth in the range of 7% to 10% for the year ahead.

"At current valuations, we retain our outperform recommendation," Day concluded.

A word from Steadfast's CEO

"FY 2025 continued our year-on-year record strong growth in revenue and profit, making it the twelfth consecutive increase since listing in 2013," Steadfast CEO Robert Kelly said on the day of the results release.

He also noted the exceptional gains the ASX 200 stock has delivered to long-term shareholders over the past 12 years.

Kelly said:

This has resulted in a shareholder, who participated in the Steadfast listing and continues to hold their shares, experiencing a total shareholder return of 530.3% on their initial investment.

The post 3 reasons this $7 billion ASX 200 stock is tipped to keep outperforming appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Take QBE Insurance (ASX: QBE) for example. The Australian general insurance company's shares have climbed 18.83% over the past year. 

Meanwhile Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG) shares have climbed 8.62% over the 12 month period and Suncorp Group Limited (ASX: SUN) shares have risen 10.87%. 

The largest annual gain came from Steadfast Group Ltd (ASX: SDF) which climbed 20.51% over the past year, although this was significantly boosted by a 4.9% price surge on Tuesday. 

For context, the ASX 200 has risen 9.62% over the same 12-month period, which means all but IAG shares have outpaced the index.

But the question is, which is the favourite?

The ASX 200 insurance share with the largest upside

In a recent note to investors, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) has highlighted its preference for Steadfast Group shares. It's the only pick of the four ASX 200 insurance companies, mentioned above, that the broker has an outperform rating on. 

Macquarie analysts have a $7.00 target price on the shares, which is just shy of the $6.64 trading price at the time of writing. Over the next 12 months it represents another potential 5.4% upside for investors, at the time of writing.

The update comes as part of the brokers review of Farm Package, which is the fifth-largest Commercial Lines production in Australia and represents a significant amount of insurer business. 

Due to the lack of competitive tension and regulatory attention, Farm Package should continue to support profitability for IAG and QBE in FY26.

Although the broker notes that "unlike other major products for retail customers, the use of broker platforms is virtually non-existent for Farm Package, making placement extremely manual. We understand Steadfast continues to be in the process of incorporating Farm Package into its SCTP placement platform, which may reduce distribution costs, but we believe it remains more than 18 months away before going live."

It adds that the reason why technology has been slow to construct in the product is because this package has multiple products and also, pricing across all brands differs.

As with other products, SDF's scale means new technology could change industry profitability, but also allow new entrants into the market, which would be the primary threat as the product looks to make money for the first time in a decade.

What does Macquarie say about the other ASX 200 insurers?

The broker has a neutral rating on IAG, Suncorp and QBE shares with target prices of $9.10, $20.60 and $23.30 respectively.

At the time of writing, Macquarie's target price represents a potential 11.1% upside for IAG. 

For Suncorp, the target price represents a potential upside of 2.0% from the $20.19 share price at the close of the ASX on Tuesday. 

For QBE, Macquarie's target price represents 13.9% potential upside for investors from the $20.45 share price at the time of writing. 

The post What's Macquarie's top ASX 200 insurance stock pick? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

If you do, then it could be worth considering the ASX shares named below that have been tipped as buys by analysts, courtesy of The Bull. Here's what the broker is saying about them:

Develop Global Ltd (ASX: DVP)

The team at MPC Markets thinks this mining and mining services company could be a buy this week.

It was very pleased with a recent update on the Sulphur Springs project and believes that recent share price weakness has created an attractive entry point. It said:

DVP is actively advancing its copper-zinc projects in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. An updated definitive feasibility study (DFS) at the Sulphur Springs project demonstrated a strong growth outlook, delivering a substantial uplift in value. The DFS results painted a bright outlook in response to low cash operating costs, robust margins and impressive returns based on an updated 1.5 million tonne per annum underground mine. The shares rose from $3.49 on September 11 to close at $4.57 on October 9. The shares have since retreated to trade at $4.095 on October 23, which we consider an appealing entry point.

Steadfast Group Ltd (ASX: SDF)

Over at Sequoia Wealth Management. Its analysts are positive on general insurance broker network operator Steadfast and have named its shares as a buy.

The wealth manager appears to see its expansion into the United States as a reason to be positive on the future. It explains:

Steadfast operates a large general insurance broker network. It has growing operations in Asia and Europe. It's also expanding into the United States. The ability to maximise returns on a US roll-out is key to SDF's long term value. The company delivered a strong result in fiscal year 2025. Underlying revenue of $1.825 billion was up 8.9 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Underlying net profit after tax of $295.5 million was up 17.2 per cent. The final fully franked dividend of 11.7 cents a share was up 14 per cent. The company has guided for underlying net profit after tax to range between $315 million and $325 million in fiscal year 2026. At current valuations, we retain our outperform recommendation.

Worley Ltd (ASX: WOR)

Analysts at Bell Potter have named this engineering and professional services company as an ASX share to buy this week.

The broker believes that Worley is well-positioned to benefit greatly on the global decarbonisation megatrends. It explains:

Worley is a global engineering and professional services company. Its exposure to the energy transition is appealing, so the business is well placed to capitalise on global decarbonisation. Margin uplift in professional services amid traction in hydrogen, carbon capture and circular economy contracts highlight operating leverage. The stock offers value considering its growth options amid a favourable macro tailwind from government and corporate net zero commitments.

The post Analysts name 3 ASX shares to buy this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Shares in the insurance brokerage company closed yesterday trading for $6.01. In late afternoon trade on Wednesday, shares are changing hands for $6.11 apiece, up 1.7%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.8% at this same time.

Taking a step back, shares in the ASX 200 dividend stock have gained 10.3% since this time last year. Atop those capital gains, Steadfast also paid out 19.5 cents per share in fully franked dividends over the full year.

If we add that welcome passive income back in, then the 12-month accumulated gain for Steadfast shares works out to 13.8%. With some potential tax benefits from those franking credits.

And the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) forecast an even better performance from Steadfast shares in the year ahead.

Here's why.

ASX 200 dividend stock tipped to outperform

Digging into the performance of Steadfast's market segments in September, Macquarie noted:

According to our latest market data, Sep '25 was a strong pricing month for Business Pack and Workers Comp, as weaknesses remained in Commercial Motor. The Sep quarter represents ~25.7% of the annual GWP placed for Commercial Lines on the Sunrise Platform, and ~24.6% of Personal Lines placed via the broker channel.

And Macquarie highlighted that the ASX 200 dividend stock is currently trading at a historic discount when compared to similar international insurance brokerage companies.

"SDF is trading at a ~10.9% discount (vs a 2.2% long-term premium) on a 2-yr fwd PERel to international brokers," Macquarie said.

That last bit, by the way, stands for two-year forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio estimates.

"At current valuations, we retain our outperform recommendation," Macquarie concluded.

The broker has a 12-month price target of $7.00 a share on the ASX 200 dividend stock. That represents a potential share price upside of 14.6% from current levels.

What's the latest from Steadfast?

Steadfast reported its FY 2025 results on 28 August.

Highlights included an 8.9% year on year increase in revenue to $1.83 billion. And on the bottom line, Steadfast's underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) of $296 million was up 17.2% from FY 2024.

As for that passive income, the ASX 200 dividend stock declared a final fully franked dividend of 11.70 cents per share, up 14.0% from last year's final dividend.

Commenting on those results on the day, Steadfast CEO Robert Kelly said:

FY25 continued our year-on-year record strong growth in revenue and profit, making it the twelfth consecutive increase since listing in 2013. This has resulted in a shareholder, who participated in the Steadfast listing and continues to hold their shares, experiencing a total shareholder return of 530.3% on their initial investment.

The post Why Macquarie expects this ASX 200 dividend stock to leap another 15% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Then you might want to have a look into insurance brokerage company Steadfast Group Ltd (ASX: SDF) and online real estate advertising company REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA).

Steadfast shares are down 0.3% in afternoon trade today, changing hands for $6.02 apiece. That sees the share price up 8.5% since this time last year. Steadfast shares also trade on a fully franked 3.2% trailing dividend yield.

REA Group shares are down 1.2% at this same time, trading for $221.31 each. The REA Group share price is up 4.5% in 12 months. The ASX 200 share also trades on a fully franked 1.1% trailing dividend yield.

And this week, two leading experts tipped both companies to outperform in the months ahead (courtesy of The Bull).

Here's why.

Should you buy these quality ASX 200 shares today?

"REA Group provides Australia's leading digital real estate platform, with dominant market share and strong brand recognition," said Morgans' Damien Nguyen, who has a buy recommendation on the ASX 200 share.

"Its core Australian site benefits from an appealing and dynamic network and consistent product innovation," he added. "International expansion, particularly in India, adds a long runway for growth."

And Nguyen pointed to the 15.8% decline in the REA Group share price (at current levels) as an opportunity to buy the dip on this quality ASX 200 share.

"The shares have fallen from $263.16 on August 22 to trade at $225.80 on October 2," he said. "We view the current price as an attractive entry point for long term investors seeking quality growth exposure."

Which brings us to Steadfast Group.

"Steadfast is the biggest general insurance broking and underwriting agency in Australasia, and is starting to grow across the globe," said Catapult Wealth's Blake Halligan, who has a buy recommendation on the ASX 200 share.

"The company is steadily growing organically and via acquisitions," he noted, adding that Steadfast "can benefit from increasing insurance premiums without taking on the underlying insurance risk".

Steadfast reported its full-year FY 2025 results on 28 August.

Drilling into those results, Halligan said:

Underlying net profit after tax of $295.5 million in full year 2025 was up 17.2% on the prior corresponding period. The final fully franked dividend of 11.7 cents was up 14%. The company has forecast underlying net profit after tax of between $315 million and $325 million in fiscal year 2026.

And Halligan expects more growth ahead for the ASX 200 share.

"We like the company's outlook," he concluded.

The post 2 quality ASX 200 shares tipped to outperform appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Let's now look at three popular shares and see if analysts think they are buys, holds, or sells, courtesy of The Bull. Here's what they are saying about them:

ResMed Inc. (ASX: RMD)

Morgans is positive on this sleep disorder treatment company. However, it only rates its shares as a hold right now. It highlights the recent softening of investor sentiment due to concerns around competition and broader negativity in the healthcare sector. It said:

ResMed remains a global leader in treating sleep disordered breathing and providing respiratory care. The company is supported by strong fundamentals and a growing software-as-a-service segment. However, investor sentiment has softened due to concerns around competition and broader negativity towards healthcare stocks. While long term prospects remain intact and downside appears limited, we suggest existing stockholders remain invested. Revenue of $5.1 billion in full year 2025 was up 10 per cent on the prior corresponding period.

Sonic Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SHL)

The team at Catapult Wealth rates this ASX 200 healthcare stock as a hold. Although it believes it is well-positioned for growth in the coming years, it isn't enough for a more positive rating. It explains:

This global pathology services provider is regaining earnings momentum after COVID-19 related revenues eased. The company used its pandemic windfall to fund acquisitions, which, along with organic growth and cost reductions, are expected to drive strong earnings growth in coming years. With a commitment to steady dividends, SHL was recently trading on a solid dividend yield of about 5 per cent. The company generated revenue and profit growth in full year 2025, but the market generally considered the result below expectations.

Steadfast Group Ltd (ASX: SDF)

One ASX 200 share that Catapult Wealth rates as a buy is insurance broker Steadfast. The broker is positive on its outlook and believes the company is positioned for growth thanks to acquisitions and increasing insurance premiums. It explains:

Steadfast is the biggest general insurance broking and underwriting agency in Australasia, and is starting to grow across the globe. The company is steadily growing organically and via acquisitions. SDF can benefit from increasing insurance premiums without taking on the underlying insurance risk. Underlying net profit after tax of $295.5 million in full year 2025 was up 17.2 per cent on the prior corresponding period. The final fully franked dividend of 11.7 cents was up 14 per cent. The company has forecast underlying net profit after tax of between $315 million and $325 million in fiscal year 2026. We like the company's outlook.

The post Buy, hold, sell: ResMed, Sonic Healthcare, and Steadfast appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.