The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) tumbled 21% between 27 February and 23 March before a sharp recovery began.

Since then, materials shares have jumped 18% as investors refocus on the positive long-term outlook for Australian mining.

Meantime on The Bull this week, experts have revealed their ratings on three ASX 200 mining shares.

Let's take a look.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

The BHP share price closed at $54.56 on Thursday, up 0.06%.

The market's largest ASX 200 mining share is 59% higher over 12 months.

However, strong momentum was not enough to keep BHP shares immune from the Iran war sell-off.

The BHP share price dropped from a record high of $59.39 on 3 March to a low of $46.06 on 23 March.

With BHP stock now rebounding, Michael Gable from Fairmont Equities gives it a hold rating.

The commodities bull market has only just started, in my view.

As a global mining giant, BHP generally appeals to investors looking to increase exposure in the resources sector.

BHP's share price has retreated to a major support level since the start of the war in Iran.

I'm confident the stock should bounce from these levels.

BHP's diversification makes it a safer bet for investors to ride the commodities bull market.

Capstone Copper Corp CDI (ASX: CSC)

Capstone Copper shares finished yesterday's session at $12.10, down 2.81%.

The ASX 200 copper mining share has almost doubled over the past 12 months, up 97%.

Mitch Belichovski from Morgans Financial has a buy rating on Capstone Copper shares.

Belichovski said:

CSC is one of a limited number of pure play copper names listed on the ASX.

Copper production growth differentiates CSC from its peers.

Growth is driven by a combination of near term and longer dated brownfield and greenfield projects, alongside a declining cost profile.

CSC was recently trading on a modest price-earnings ratio in 2026 and offers good value at these price levels.

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32)

The South32 share price closed at $4.58 yesterday, up 0.22%.

Mark Elzayed from Investor Pulse has a hold rating on South32 shares.

He said South32 was navigating a complex portfolio transition along with operational challenges.

He noted that the company put an aluminium smelter in Mozambique into care and maintenance last month.

However, Elzayed said South32's 1H FY26 results were encouraging.

Underlying EBITDA of $US1.1 billion was up 9 per cent on the prior corresponding period.

Underlying earnings of $US435 million grew 16 per cent, supported by higher base and precious metals prices.

Copper and zinc production remained strong, highlighted by a 28 per cent increase in underground ore reserves at Cannington.

The ASX 200 mining share has soared 43% over six months and is 28% higher in the year to date.

He concluded:

From a valuation and technical standpoint, we see S32 as fairly valued following a strong rally earlier this year.

The stock is consolidating, with technical indicators appearing neutral, and we view it as a wait and see opportunity.

The post Buy, hold, or sell? South32, Capstone Copper, and BHP shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) copper stock closed up 9.1% yesterday, ending the day at $12.45. During the Thursday lunch hour, shares are changing hands for $12.02 each, down 3.5%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.1% at this same time.

It's now been just over two years since Canadian-based Capstone Copper shares began trading on the ASX. That was back on 8 April 2024.

Although shares have retraced from the all-time closing high of $17.54, posted on 29 January, the ASX 200 copper stock has gained 94.6% over the past 12 months, racing ahead of the 21.3% one-year gains posted by the benchmark index.

Atop its own operational successes, the miner has benefited from a 47% increase in copper prices since this time last year. The red metal is currently trading for US$12,709 per tonne.

And looking to the year ahead, Morgans Financial's Mitch Belichovski believes the stock is well-placed to keep outperforming (courtesy of The Bull).

Should you buy Capstone Copper shares today?

"This copper miner and developer has five long-life assets strategically located in the Americas," said Belichovski, citing the first reason you might want to buy Capstone Copper shares today.

"CSC is one of a limited number of pure play copper names listed on the ASX," he added.

As for the second reason, Belichovski noted that miner's strong growth potential.

According to Belichovski:

Copper production growth differentiates CSC from its peers. Growth is driven by a combination of near term and longer dated brownfield and greenfield projects, alongside a declining cost profile.

And despite the near doubling in the miner's share price over the past year, he noted that the stock still looks to be trading at a good value.

"CSC was recently trading on a modest price-earnings ratio in 2026 and offers good value at these price levels," he concluded.

What's the latest from the ASX 200 copper stock?

Capstone reported its fourth quarter (Q4 2025) results on 3 March.

Highlights for the three months to 31 December included all-time high copper production of 58,273 tonnes.

This helped drive record quarterly adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $308 million, up 79% from Q4 2024 earnings.

Looking ahead, the ASX 200 copper stock provided full year 2026 production guidance of 200,000 to 230,000 tonnes of copper. 2025 saw the miner deliver record copper production of 224,764 tonnes.

Despite the strong quarterly results, Capstone Copper shares closed down 8.1% on the day of the results release, just two trading days into the Iran war. That selling looks to have been driven by investor fears that the war could disrupt global growth and dampen medium-term demand for copper.

The post 3 reasons to buy Capstone Copper shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In afternoon trade on Wednesday, the ASX 200 is up 2.6% as investors digest news of a two-week ceasefire in the Iran war.

And the copper miners are charging ahead of those gains. That's because a resolution in the Middle East conflict would reduce the forecast pressure on global growth and, accordingly, increase forecast demand for crucial industrial metals like copper.

Indeed, since the outbreak of the war at the end of February, the copper price has fallen by almost 8% to US$12,313 per tonne. Mind you, that's still up 41% since this time last year.

And with investors hopeful that the war could be nearing an end, here's how these three leading ASX 200 copper stocks are tracking today and over the past 12 months:

• BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are up 3.6% today at $54.84 and up 55.0% in 12 months
• Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) shares are up 10.5% today at $18.26 and up 108.3% in 12 months
• Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC) shares are up 9.2% today at $12.46 and up 85.4% in 12 months

While Sandfire Resources and Canadian-based Capstone Copper are relatively pure play copper stocks, you may be surprised to see BHP shares on this list.

But when BHP reported its half-year results (H1 FY 2026) in February, investors learned that at US$8 billion, copper contributed more than half the miner's earnings for the six months, surpassing iron ore for the first time.

For the full 2026 financial year, BHP expects to produce between 1.9 million and 2.0 million tonnes of the red metal.

ASX 200 copper stocks facing 'near-term risks'

When it comes to the US and Israeli war with Iran, investors would do well not to be overly exuberant amid the early ceasefire news.

"Investors shouldn't mistake this pause for a resolution," eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert said.

"A two-week ceasefire window is welcome news for risk assets broadly, but the reality is we've seen patterns like this before, and the underlying uncertainty can persist," he added.

And ASX 200 copper stocks like BHP and Sandfire could prove particularly vulnerable to a prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

That's according to the analysts at Goldman Sachs, who warn of potentially slumping global demand for the red metal, should the war persist (courtesy of The Australian Financial Review).

According to Goldman Sachs:

We see the near-term risks as skewed to the downside if strait flows remain disrupted for longer than our base case, which would keep energy prices higher for longer and likely slow global economic growth.

And the big one-year share price gains posted by BHP and its rival ASX 200 copper stocks may have been partly driven by overvalued global copper prices.

Goldman Sachs noted:

The copper price continues to trade well above our 2026 fair value estimate of about US$11,100 … which would fall below US$11,000 under our economists' severely adverse scenario of a 1.2 percentage point hit to global GDP growth from the energy price spike.

Our fair value estimate takes into account price support from the ex-US market balance and adds a 25% probability of broad strategic copper stockpiling. This means that the copper price is not being supported at the current level by fundamentals, making it vulnerable to another move lower should the economic outlook deteriorate and investors de-risk.

Stay tuned!

The post Why surging ASX 200 copper stocks like Sandfire and BHP shares are 'vulnerable' appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Well, the team at Morgans has narrowed things down by naming two shares to buy and one to sell, courtesy of The Bull.

Here's what it is recommending:

Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX: ALL)

Morgans thinks that this gaming technology company could be an ASX 200 share to buy now.

With Aristocrat's shares trading on lower than normal multiples, the broker believes an attractive buying opportunity has opened up. It said:

Aristocrat Leisure designs, develops and distributes gaming content, platforms and systems. It offers high quality recurring earnings from generating real money online gaming opportunities. An under geared balance sheet provides options for acquisitions, and ALL is a capital light business with strong cash conversion. The company is trading well below historical levels. The stock is attractively valued given its track record of proven earnings growth.

Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC)

Another ASX share that Morgans has named as a buy this week is copper miner Capstone Copper.

Once again, it believes the company's shares are trading at an attractive level for investors. It explains:

This copper miner and developer has five long-life assets strategically located in the Americas. CSC is one of a limited number of pure play copper names listed on the ASX. Copper production growth differentiates CSC from its peers. Growth is driven by a combination of near term and longer dated brownfield and greenfield projects, alongside a declining cost profile. CSC was recently trading on a modest price-earnings ratio in 2026 and offers good value at these price levels.

Guzman Y Gomez Ltd (ASX: GYG)

Morgans has named this ASX 200 share as a sell this week according to The Bull. It highlights that the Mexican fast food company's US business is underperforming and will need to improve to deliver value for shareholders. It said:

Guzman Y Gomez owns, operates and franchises Mexican inspired quick service restaurants in Australia, Singapore, Japan and the United States. The company's premium valuation is predicated on expectations it will deliver material earnings per share growth over many years. In our view, the company is exposed to execution risk as it aggressively continues to open new restaurants in Australia. Australian earnings were up strongly in the first half of 2026.

However, segment underlying EBITDA in the United States posted a loss of $8.3 million. Management will need to narrow its losses in the US and increase the pace of US expansion to ultimately deliver value for shareholders. GYG shares have fallen from $31 on March 31, 2025 to trade at $15.735 on April 2, 2026.

The post Morgans names two ASX 200 shares to buy and one to sell this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This jubilant hump day session for ASX shares comes after an even more euphoric morning on the American markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) was off to the races, gaining 2.49%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) put the turbocharger on though, exploding 3.83% higher.

Let's get back to the local markets now and see how today's gains filtered down into the different ASX sectors.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP)

While 2026 so far has been a series of bad news events for the AMP share price, it looks like the stock could shift course and begin soaring again over the next 12 months.

This week, AMP confirmed it will undertake an on-market buyback of up to $150 million of ordinary shares and Blair Vernon has officially stepped into the CEO role. Sentiment could well follow suit.

Analysts have a strong buy rating on AMP shares and tip a potential 33% upside to $1.75 per share, at the time of writing.

Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC)

Capstone shares have crashed 40% over the past six weeks driven by rising operating costs and production disruptions. But I think rising copper prices could renew some investor confidence in the ASX copper company's shares.

Capstone has confirmed 2026 production guidance of 200,000 to 230,000 tonnes of copper at C1 cash costs of US$2.45 to US$2.75 per pound. It also expects largely stable production in 2026, with growth anticipated from Mantoverde Optimised from 2027.

Analysts tip the shares to jump 45% higher to $15.10 a piece, at the time of writing.

EVT Ltd (ASX: EVT)

EVT is an Australian provider of entertainment, hospitality, tourism, and leisure-related services in Australia, New Zealand, and Germany. The company announced it has completed $750 million in refinancing this week. 

The refinancing, together with EVT's non-core asset divestment program, is expected to give the business more financial flexibility and aid a business shift towards the hotel and accommodation sector.

Analysts tip a potential 20% upside to $15.90 a piece, at the time of writing.

Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD)

The ASX gold stock's shares have tumbled nearly 27% over the past month after concerns about rising inflation and more interest rate hikes overshadowed gold's traditional safe-haven status.

The metal's price has tumbled from an all-time high on the 1st of March. But Genesis Minerals' has managed to maintain a strong revenue and earnings performance driven by increased production. I think as soon as gold comes back into favor, this ASX share will fly higher.

Analysts tip a potential 60% share price upside to $9.41, at the time of writing.

Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM)

Newmont is another ASX gold share which was oversold in March.

Declining gold prices have weighed heavily on the world's largest gold miner, with its share price down 19% over the course of the month. I think the stock could rebound sharply as the gold price recovers.

Analysts tip a potential 26% upside to $192.20 a piece, over the next 12 months. 

The post 5 ASX shares I'd buy with $10,000 this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

ASX mining shares have been the worst hit by the war in Iran, with the materials sector losing 15.3% of its value since the conflict began.

Some investors took profits this month after a strong run for ASX 200 mining shares, amid fears that higher diesel prices and potential shortages could hurt earnings and production for 2H FY26.

ASX 200 mining shares have also declined alongside metals prices, with gold down 17%, silver down 22%, lithium carbonate down 8%, and copper down 7% over the month. Iron ore has demonstrated resilience, rising 7% over the period to US$106 per tonne on Friday.

With the US and Iran still negotiating a 15-point plan for peace, it is hoped this war and the ensuing global oil shock will be over soon.

This may have motivated some investors to take up new or enhanced positions in ASX 200 mining shares last week, given the bright long-term outlook for the sector and the opportunity to buy the dip.

Reflecting the miners' fightback last week, the S&P/ASX 300 Metal & Mining Index (ASX: XMM) rose 4.4% while the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gained 1% to finish at 8,516.3 points.

Seven of the 11 market sectors finished in the green last week.

Let's recap.

ASX 200 mining shares fight back

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price increased 6.1% to close at $50.37 on Friday.

BHP shares reached a record $59.39 on 3 March before the war prompted investors to take profits.

Despite last week's rebound, the ASX 200's largest mining stock remains 13.8% lower over 30 days.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares lifted 4.3% to $153.23 last week, while Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) gained 6.5% to $20.19.

The Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) share price soared 9.7% to $56.69.

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) shares increased 1.3% to $4.03 per share.

ASX 200 copper share Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) lifted 1.8% to $15.88, while Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC) edged 0.6% lower to $10.14.

ASX 200 lithium shares had a ripsnorter of a week, with PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) rocketing 21.8% to close at $5.15 on Friday.

The Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR) share price soared 20.9% to $1.77, and Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) gained 11.9% to 24 cents.

Nickel and lithium producer IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) lifted 16.5% to $7.93 per share.

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) shares closed the week 2.7% higher at $10.08 apiece.

Bauxite and alumina producer Alcoa Corporation CDI (ASX: AAI) lifted 3.5% to $85.95 per share.

What about ASX gold shares?

The market's largest ASX 200 gold share, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) rose 0.3% to close at $18.55 on Friday.

The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price lifted 0.4% to $12.46, and Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) rose 3.1% to $146.85.

Among the mid-caps, Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) shares lifted 2.1% to $3.96, and Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) rose 1.1% to $6.26.

Gold and copper miner, Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX: GGP) fell 3.5% to $9.76.

ASX 200 market sector snapshot

Here's how the 11 market sectors stacked up last week, according to CommSec data.

Over the five trading days:

The post ASX 200 mining shares rebound after March sell-off creates opportunities appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Capstone Copper shares closed yesterday trading for $9.60. At the time of writing, shares are swapping hands for $10.25 apiece, up 6.8%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.6% at this same time.

Capstone Copper shares look to be catching some tailwinds today, with the copper price up 2% overnight to US$12,167 per tonne.

Despite coming under pressure following the outbreak of the Iran war on 28 February, the copper price is up more than 22% since this time last year amid strong global demand for the conductive metal and limited new supply growth.

The Capstone Copper share price has fallen more than 30% since the outset of hostilities in the Middle East, with the ASX 200 copper stock now up 7% over 12 months. This sees the company currently commanding a market cap of around $7.9 billion.

Which brings us back to our headline question.

Should you buy this ASX 200 copper stock today?

Copper's non-corrosive properties see it widely used in areas such as plumbing. While the red metal's conductive nature has seen strong demand growth in recent years amid the world's push towards electrification. 

Commenting on global trends that could support Capstone Copper shares over the long run, Medallion Financial Group's Philippe Bui said (courtesy of The Bull):

The company provides exposure to one of the strongest long term commodity themes – increasing copper demand driven by electrification, energy transition and global infrastructure investment.

And Bui noted that the ASX 200 copper stock has strong growth potential. He said:

The company produces about 200,000 tonnes of copper equivalent annually, and has a pipeline of expansion projects capable of materially increasing production over time. With copper supplies expected to tighten structurally in coming years, Capstone is well positioned to benefit from higher long-term prices.

Connecting the dots, Bui issued a hold recommendation on Capstone Copper shares.

He concluded:

While capital expenditure remains elevated during the expansion phase, the growth outlook is compelling. Investors already positioned in the stock should continue to hold exposure to what we regard as an appealing long term copper growth story.

What's the latest from Capstone Copper shares?

The ASX 200 copper stock reported its fourth quarter and full calendar year 2025 results on 3 March.

Highlights for the full year included a 47.5% increase in revenue from 2024 to $2.36 billion.

And earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $953 million were up 92% year on year. 

"2025 was an inflection point for Capstone, representing tangible delivery on peer leading growth with our copper production up 22%," Capstone CEO Cashel Meagher said on the day.

The post Should you buy this $8 billion ASX 200 copper stock amid surging global demand? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

That's because analysts have just given their verdict on these ASX mining stocks, courtesy of The Bull.

Here's what they are saying:

Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC)

The team at Medallion Financial Group thinks that this copper miner is a hold.

Although it believes that Capstone is well-positioned to benefit from higher long term copper prices, it isn't enough for a buy recommendation just yet. It said:

The company provides exposure to one of the strongest long term commodity themes — increasing copper demand driven by electrification, energy transition and global infrastructure investment. The company produces about 200,000 tonnes of copper equivalent annually, and has a pipeline of expansion projects capable of materially increasing production over time.

With copper supplies expected to tighten structurally in coming years, Capstone is well positioned to benefit from higher long term prices. While capital expenditure remains elevated during the expansion phase, the growth outlook is compelling. Investors already positioned in the stock should continue to hold exposure to what we regard as an appealing long term copper growth story.

Kingston Resources Ltd (ASX: KSN)

Over at Alto Capital, it has named Kingston Resources shares as a buy this week.

It likes the gold explorer due to its strong balance sheet, improving operational momentum, and multi-metal exposure. It explains:

Kingston Resources is advancing the Mineral Hill gold and base metals operation in New South Wales, where recent underground drilling has returned wide, high grade polymetallic intersections within the southern ore zone.

The results confirm encouraging gold, copper, lead, zinc and silver mineralisation in areas planned for near-term underground stoping, strengthening the existing mineral resource model and supporting mine planning. Selling the Misima gold project strengthened its balance sheet. With improving operational momentum and leverage to multiple metals, Kingston offers potential for a re-rating as Mineral Hill ramps up.

Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR)

One ASX mining stock that Alto Capital isn't positive on is lithium miner Liontown. It has named the company as a sell this week.

Although the broker thinks lithium has a positive long term outlook, it feels that Liontown shares are more than fully valued at current levels. It said:

LTR's Kathleen Valley lithium project in Western Australia is one of the largest new hard-rock lithium operations globally. The company's first half year result in fiscal year 2026 highlighted strong operational progress, with production ramping up and revenue increasing significantly from growing concentrate shipments. However, Liontown reported a net loss of $184 million, reflecting accounting charges and the ongoing costs associated with scaling up the operation.

While the long term outlook for lithium demand remains encouraging, the current share price appears to reflect a large portion of the project's future growth potential. With earnings still developing and the company transitioning through a capital intensive ramp-up phase, the risk-reward balance at current levels favours taking profits following the sector's recent re-rating.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Copper, gold, and lithium ASX stocks appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

So, to narrow things down, let's take a look at three that Morgans currently rates as buys. They are as follows:

Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC)

This copper miner's fourth quarter performance might have been a touch softer than expected, but Morgans remains positive due to its strong production growth outlook.

As a result, the broker has a buy rating and $16.00 price target on the ASX mining stock. It said:

Small 4Q25 EPS miss vs expectations but the near-long term reset in production targets (265kt vs 280kt near term, 375kt vs 400kt long term) was the driver of the -9% share price reaction, in our view. We trim our long-term production assumptions and target price to A$16ps (from A$16.60ps).

Even on a moderated growth profile, CSC still delivers ~60% production growth to CY30 from current CY26 forecasts and trades cheaply at 6x/4x CY26/CY27 EV/EBITDA, pricing in US$4.25/lb copper into perpetuity. Maintain BUY with a A$16ps target price (previously A$16.60ps).

Catalyst Metals Ltd (ASX: CYL)

Another ASX mining stock that gets the thumbs up from Morgans is gold miner Catalyst Metals.

It is expecting big things to commence in FY 2027 and is urging investors to buy its shares now before it's too late. The broker has a buy rating and $15.24 price target on its shares.

1H26 result was broadly in line with expectations, with FY26 shaping as a foundation year ahead of a step-change in ounce growth from FY27 and beyond, underpinned by ~10 years of reserves. Key positive: Continued uplift in the price of gold has delivered a material uplift in revenue (+50% pcp) and underlying EBITDA (+92%) despite ounce production effectively being flat pcp.

Minerals 260 Ltd (ASX: MI6)

Finally, this gold developer could be an ASX mining stock to buy according to Morgans.

It likes the company due to its recent funding package and attractive valuation. The broker has a buy rating and $1.20 price target on its shares. It said:

MI6 has agreed to a A$220m funding package with Franco-Nevada Corporation (Franco) to accelerate the development of the 4.6Moz Au Bullabulling Gold Project. The A$220m funding package consists of an updated A$170m royalty agreement lifting the total royalty to 2.45% (previously 1%) and a A$50m private placement to Franco at a 7% premium to last close.

Based on our forecasts, the upfront royalty consideration implies a long-term gold price of ~A$7,500/oz Au. This is materially above consensus assumptions and suggests the funding has been secured on favourable implied terms for MI6. We maintain our BUY recommendation and lift our target price to A$1.20 (previously A$1.10).

The post Morgans names 3 ASX mining stocks to buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Three ASX shares that brokers have named as buys this week are listed below. Here's why their analysts are feeling bullish on them right now:

Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC)

According to a note out of Morgans, its analysts have retained their buy rating on this copper miner's shares with a trimmed price target of $16.00. This follows the release of a fourth quarter update which was a touch short of expectations, as well as soft production guidance for 2026. However, the broker isn't concerned by this. Instead, it is urging investors to focus on the medium term and believes strong production growth is still coming through to the end of the decade. As a result, it feels that the company's shares are undervalued at current levels based on its copper price forecasts. The Capstone Copper share price is trading at $13.05 this afternoon.

Life360 Inc (ASX: 360)

A note out of Bell Potter reveals that its analysts have retained their buy rating on this family safety technology company's shares with a trimmed price target of $40.00. This follows the release of FY 2025 results that were a touch ahead of forecasts. In addition, the broker was pleased with Life360's guidance for FY 2026, highlighting that it was in line with both the broker's and consensus estimates. In light of this and the significant share price weakness recently, Bell Potter appears to see now as an opportune time for investors to pick up this rapidly growing company's shares. The Life360 share price is fetching $20.54 at the time of writing.

Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM)

Another note out of Morgans reveals that its analysts have upgraded this gold miner's shares to a buy rating with an improved price target of $214.00. With the spot gold price trading near record highs, it highlights that gold miners are generating significant cash, which is strengthening their balance sheets. And with the broker upgrading its gold price assumptions for the coming years, it sees potential for a further re-rating of gold miners like Newmont in the near term. The Newmont share price is trading at $172.60 on Wednesday afternoon.

The post Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

We've picked three of these that stand out from the pack as providing potential large returns for shareholders.

So let's see what they are.

AUB Group Ltd (ASX: AUB)

This is an ASX 200 company that operates retail and wholesale insurance brokers and underwriting agencies globally.

The company's shares are currently trading at $23.45, not far off their 12-month lows of $22.72 and a long way from the highs of $40.28 reached over the past year.

AUB last month reported a 14% increase in net profit and raised its FY26 profit guidance to $220 to $230 million, representing 9.9% to 14.9% growth over FY25.

The Macquarie team said the result beat consensus forecasts across all segments except New Zealand, with the other segments outperforming.

They added that the company "offers attractive growth at a valuation discount'', and they have a price target of $35.81 on AUB shares, while also forecasting a 4% dividend yield.

Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (ASX: CWY)

This ASX 200 waste management company reported first-half results ahead of expectations, Macquarie said, while also tightening its full-year earnings expectations from $470 to $500 million to $480 to $500 million.

The Macquarie team said they think that "earnings momentum should inflect", with Cleanaway Management commenting on a favourable backdrop from project work and favourable price dynamics.

The Macquarie team added:

Margin improvement in Solid Waste is a key indicator of the better operating efficiencies resulting from improvement interventions. Health Services was a key disappointment, which is expected to see a 2H improvement. Contract Resources is bedding down well. Cost-out is progressing.

Macquarie has a price target of $3.40 on Cleanaway shares, compared with a price of $2.54 currently, and is forecasting a full-year dividend yield of 2.8%.

Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC)

Capstone Copper's recently-released EBITDA of US$308 million was in line with consensus estimates, Macquarie said, but the net profit of US$79 million was 28% lower than expected due to higher tax expenses.  

Macquarie said they saw value in the company because its shares were trading at an implied copper price that was well below the spot price.

After running the ruler over Capstone's first-half results, Macquarie downgraded its price target on Capstone shares by only 1% to $15.40, which compares to $13.20 currently.

Macquarie said the current valuation was "not demanding''.

The post Three stocks to buy for double-digit returns, according to Macquarie appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are dropping:

Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC)

The Capstone Copper share price is down 8% to $13.29. This morning, this copper miner revealed full-year production growth of 22% to 224,764 tonnes with a cash cost of $2.44 per pound. However, it also provided guidance for FY 2026, which revealed that it expects production of just 200,000 to 230,000 tonnes with cash costs of $2.45 to $2.75 per pound. The higher costs are expected to be driven by modest inflation and the impact of lower-grade zones driven by mine sequence at Mantos Blancos and Pinto Valley.

Life360 Inc (ASX: 360)

The Life360 share price is down 10% to $22.10. Investors have been selling this family safety technology company's shares following the release of its full-year results. At one stage today, Life360's shares were up as much as 15% before making a significant U-turn. Interestingly, this is despite Life360 delivering earnings ahead of expectations and reiterating its guidance for FY 2026. However, it is worth noting that the tech sector is a sea of red today.

Neuren Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: NEU)

The Neuren Pharmaceuticals share price is down 7.5% to $12.73. This morning, this pharmaceuticals company confirmed that European regulators have rejected its application for trofinetide for the treatment of Rett syndrome. Its partner, Acadia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ACAD), commented: "While we are disappointed by the CHMP's recommendation to refuse approval, we continue to be encouraged by the meaningful benefits trofinetide has demonstrated for people living with Rett syndrome. The strong engagement and positive feedback we have seen from patients, caregivers, and clinicians in the Rett community reinforce our belief in the treatment's clinical value. We remain committed to working constructively with EU regulators to explore next steps and to bring this therapy to patients."

St George Mining Ltd (ASX: SGQ)

The St George Mining share price is down 15.5% to 13.5 cents. This is despite the rare earths explorer announcing a substantial increase in the size and quality of the mineral resource estimate at its 100%-owned Araxa Project. Management believes this confirms the tier one status of the rare earths and niobium deposit in the world's premier niobium-producing region. However, it seems that investors were expecting stronger numbers.

The post Why Capstone Copper, Life360, Neuren, and St George Mining shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The decline follows the release of the copper producer's fourth quarter results before market open.

In midday trade, Capstone shares are down 5.18% to $13.72. Despite today's pullback, the company's shares remain up more than 50% over the past 12 months.

Here is what the company reported.

Record production caps off strong year

Capstone delivered consolidated copper production of 58,273 tonnes in Q4 2025, up 8% from 53,942 tonnes in the prior corresponding period. The increase was driven by stronger sulphide production at Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos.

For the full year, consolidated copper production rose 22% to 224,764 tonnes, compared with 184,460 tonnes in 2024.

Realised copper prices also improved. Capstone achieved an average realised copper price of US$5.36 per pound in Q4, up from US$4.04 per pound a year earlier. For the full year, the realised price averaged US$4.65 per pound, compared with US$4.16 in 2024.

C1 cash costs declined significantly. Consolidated C1 cash costs in Q4 fell to US$2.31 per pound, down from US$2.52 per pound in Q4 2024. For the full year, C1 cash costs dropped 12% to US$2.44 per pound.

Earnings and cash flow expand

Revenue in Q4 totalled $685 million, up from $446.9 million in the prior corresponding period. Full-year revenue increased to $2.36 billion from $1.60 billion in 2024.

Net income attributable to shareholders came in at $50.6 million for the quarter, up from $45.9 million a year earlier. On an adjusted basis, net income attributable to shareholders was $78.7 million for Q4.

For the full year, net income attributable to shareholders surged to $315.9 million, compared with $82.9 million in 2024. Adjusted net income was $163.6 million for the year.

Adjusted EBITDA reached $308 million in Q4, up from $171.9 million in the prior corresponding period. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA rose to $952.7 million, almost double the $496.1 million recorded in 2024.

Operating cash flow before changes in working capital increased to $287.3 million in Q4. For the full year, operating cash flow before changes in working capital was $897 million.

Balance sheet and outlook

Net debt stood at $780.1 million as at 31 December 2025, compared with $742 million a year earlier. Total available liquidity was reported at just over $1 billion at year end.

Looking ahead, Capstone has reaffirmed 2026 production guidance of 200,000 to 230,000 tonnes of copper at C1 cash costs of US$2.45 to US$2.75 per pound. The company expects largely stable production in 2026, with growth anticipated from Mantoverde Optimised from 2027.

While the market has driven the stock lower today, 2025 was a record year for production and earnings. The result was supported by stronger copper prices and improved unit costs.

The post ASX copper producer falls after record Q4 performance appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

As usual, it was the major ASX 200 mining shares that propelled the sector higher.

The highlight was the BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price ascending to its highest level in 140 years as a listed company.

BHP shares rose above their previous record of $54.55, set in mid-2021, on Monday; then lifted further to $58.29 on Thursday.

BHP also took back its title as the market's largest company from Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) on Friday.

Meantime, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) rose 1.29% to finish the week at a record high of 9,198.6 points.

Six of the sectors finished the week in the green.

Let's review.

ASX materials sector back in the saddle

The Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) share price lifted 2.47% to finish the week at $167.33.

The Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) share price rose 5.49% to $21.14 after the miner revealed its 1H FY26 results on Wednesday.

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) shares rose 19% to $60.98.

The ASX 200 mining share is riding a new wave of momentum after reporting record EBITDA of $1.2 billion for 1H FY26, up 286%.

The South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) share price climbed 4.78% to $4.60.

Among the ASX 200 gold mining shares, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) rose 6.88% to close at $30.28 on Friday.

The Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) share price increased 5.73% to $177.20.

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares rose 10.17% to finish the week at $16.58.

The Evolution share price reached a record $16.99 in intraday trading on Friday.

ASX 200 copper pure-play Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) rose 7.17% to $20.19 on Friday.

Capstone Copper Corp CDI (ASX: CSC) shares finished 4.48% higher at $14.70.

ASX 200 lithium mining share PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) soared 24.16% to close the week at $5.19.

PLS Group shares are also on an upward trajectory after the miner revealed a 241% EBITDA surge in 1H FY26.

The Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR) share price rose 5.25% to $1.71 on no price-sensitive news last week.

Among ASX 200 ASX rare earths shares, Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) ripped 21.05% higher to $18.98.

Last week, Lynas Rare Earths reported a net profit of $80.2 million for 1H FY26, up from $5.9 million in 1H FY25.

Scores of ASX 200 shares have ex-dividend dates next week. Check them out here.

ASX 200 market sector snapshot

Here's how the 11 market sectors stacked up last week, according to CommSec data.

Over the five trading days:

The post ASX 200 materials sector leads as earnings season ends with a record high appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Let's take a closer look at three and see if the broker rates them as buys, holds, or sells. Here's what you need to know:

A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M)

This infant formula company delivered a stronger than expected half-year result this week. In addition, Morgans notes that management has upgraded its FY 2026 guidance again.

While the broker is a fan of A2 Milk, it thinks its shares are fairly valued now. As a result, it has put a hold rating and $9.50 price target on them. It said:

A2M's 1H26 result was stronger than expected. The beat for us reflected stronger than expected Other Nutritionals and Liquid Milk sales. FY26 guidance was upgraded once again. NPAT growth should accelerate in FY27 given A2 Pokeno is expected to breakeven and new China label (CL) IF products will be launched. While we rate the company and its management team highly, we believe that the stock is trading on fair multiples (FY27 PE of 29.3x and PEG of 1.9x). We maintain a Hold rating with a new price target of A$9.50 (previously $9.40).

Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC)

This copper miner disappointed with its production guidance earlier this week. It notes that its production volumes were softer than expected and its costs were higher.

Nevertheless, the broker remains positive and sees plenty of value in Capstone shares. This has seen Morgans retain its buy rating with a trimmed price target of $16.60. It said:

CY26 production guidance is well below expectations with higher costs and capex reflecting lower grades at Pinto Valley and Mantos Blancos, and strike and tie-in impacts at Mantoverde driving likely near-term earnings revisions. CY26 headwinds are largely sequencing and one-off in nature, with MV-O ramp-up and higher grades positioning CSC for volume growth and lower unit costs from CY27 onward. Maintain BUY with a A$16.60ps target price (previously A$17.40).

Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO)

Finally, Morgans has downgraded this small business lender's shares to an accumulate rating (from buy) with a $2.09 price target. The broker made the move on valuation grounds following a sizeable rise in the Judo share price in response to a strong half-year result. It said:

Strong 1H26 profit growth provided evidence of improving operating leverage. Forecast NPAT changes across FY26-28F are within +3% to -4% on a mildly higher revenue and costs scenario than previously assumed. 12 month target price lifted to $2.09/sh mostly on valuation roll-forward. Rating moved down from BUY to ACCUMULATE given recent share price strength.

The post Buy, hold, sell: A2 Milk, Capstone Copper, and Judo Capital shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here's why they are falling:

Baby Bunting Group Ltd (ASX: BBN)

The Baby Bunting share price is down 3.5% to $2.30. This morning, analysts at Morgans reaffirmed their hold rating on this baby products retailer's shares with a trimmed price target of $2.60. The broker said: "BBN's 1H26 pro-forma NPAT was up 4.1% yoy to $5.0m which was in the middle of guidance range ($4.5-$5.5m) driven by comps sales growth, gross margin expansion offset by higher costs. Nine stores have been refurbished to the new store design, and have performed strongly, sales up 25%, which is at the upper end of guidance range of 15-25%. FY26 NPAT guidance has been narrowed to $17.5-$19.5m (was $17-20m). We have made minor changes to forecasts. We have a $2.60 target price (was $2.70) Hold recommendation retained."

Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC)

The Capstone Copper share price is down 18% to $12.78. This follows the release of the copper miner's guidance for 2026. Capstone Copper expects consolidated copper production of between 200,000 and 230,000 tonnes in 2026. This is broadly in line with 2025 levels. Management also advised that it expects consolidated C1 cash costs of US$2.45 to US$2.75 per payable pound of copper in 2026. This is an increase compared to 2025, primarily due to modest inflation and lower-grade ore at Mantos Blancos and Pinto Valley driven by mine sequencing.

Healius Ltd (ASX: HLS)

The Healius share price is down 11% to 72.7 cents. This morning, this healthcare company released its half-year results and reported a 3.8% increase in group revenue to $688.1 million and underlying EBIT of $7.9 million. The latter was up from a loss of $2.7 million a year ago. While management expects to achieve earnings in line with consensus estimates in FY 2026, it warned that its revenue and profitability will be skewed towards the second half. This is due to both the timing of cost savings and normal volume seasonality factors. The market appears sceptical that it will deliver on this guidance.

Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN)

The Suncorp share price is down 5% to $15.19. Investors have been selling this insurance giant's shares following the release of its half-year results. Suncorp reported a net profit after tax of $263 million, which is down heavily from $1.1 billion a year earlier. The company's CEO, Steve Johnston, said: "While Suncorp's 1H26 reported profits and shareholder returns have been challenged by an elevated level of natural hazard costs and lower investment returns over the half, our underlying business remains resilient as we continue to deliver on our strategic imperatives and drive good momentum leading into the second half of the financial year."

The post Why Baby Bunting, Capstone Copper, Healius, and Suncorp shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At the time of writing, the ASX 200 copper stock is down 19% to $12.72.

Why is this ASX 200 copper stock crashing?

The heavy selling this morning follows the release of the copper miner's 2026 production and cost guidance, which appears to have disappointed investors.

Capstone Copper announced that it expects consolidated copper production of between 200,000 and 230,000 tonnes in 2026. While this is broadly in line with 2025 levels, it signals largely flat output rather than the stronger growth some investors may have been hoping for.

More concerning for the market is cost guidance. The ASX 200 copper stock expects consolidated C1 cash costs of US$2.45 to US$2.75 per payable pound of copper in 2026. Management said costs are expected to increase compared to 2025, primarily due to modest inflation and lower-grade ore at Mantos Blancos and Pinto Valley driven by mine sequencing.

Lower grades generally mean more material needs to be processed to produce the same amount of copper, which can weigh on margins.

Big capital spend

Another factor that may be unsettling investors is the scale of planned capital expenditure.

Capstone Copper is forecasting total capital expenditure of US$495 million in 2026. This includes US$270 million in sustaining capital and US$225 million in expansionary capital, largely related to the Mantoverde Optimized Project and the Santo Domingo Project.

On top of this, the company expects to spend a further US$225 million on capitalised stripping at its open-pit operations and US$70 million on exploration activities.

While these investments are aimed at driving future growth, they represent significant cash outflows in the near term.

Production outlook

At Mantoverde, production is expected to remain broadly stable in 2026, though throughput improvements are set to be offset by the impact of a January strike and planned maintenance. The ramp-up of the Mantoverde Optimized project is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026, with higher production levels targeted in 2027.

Over at Mantos Blancos, it is forecast to see lower production in 2026 due to a one-year period of lower copper grades, though grades are expected to recover in 2027.

Finally, Pinto Valley production is expected to increase slightly, but grades will be marginally lower. Cozamin is forecast to see slightly lower production due to lower grades and higher labour costs.

Commenting on the update, the ASX 200 copper stock's CEO, Cashel Meagher, said:

2025 was a remarkable year for Capstone, delivering record copper production up 22% year-over-year, while executing on several key catalysts. We will continue to build on this success in 2026, with a focus on delivering consistent and reliable outcomes, while we execute on MV-O which is expected to drive higher copper production levels in 2027. Meanwhile, we will progress the fully-permitted Santo Domingo Project towards a sanctioning decision, which is expected in the second half of 2026.

Building on the first phase of the exploration program commenced in late 2024, we will continue to advance our district growth strategy through targeted exploration focused on the Mantoverde-Santo Domingo district. In parallel, we will continue to capitalize on strong commodity prices by deleveraging through internally generated cash flows, ensuring we are well-positioned to advance our growth strategy.

The post Why is this ASX 200 copper stock crashing 19%? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The copper price surged to a new closing price record of US$13,694 per tonne last month.

It then plunged to a low of US$12,763 per tonne on 5 February before rebounding to US$13,117 per tonne today.

The rout was sparked by the US President's nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the new Federal Reserve chair.

Warsh is seen as hawkish, so his selection strengthened the US dollar, which led to a metals sell-off as investors scrambled to take profits.

The copper price rose by 42% in 2025 and is 4.8% higher in 2026-to-date.

The red metal's ascendancy has pushed many ASX copper shares higher.

Last month, the Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) share price soared to a record high of $21.75.

Today, Sandfire shares are $19.43, up 0.3%.

Capstone Copper Corp CDI (ASX: CSC) shares also hit an all-time high of $17.83 per share last month.

On Tuesday, Capstone Copper shares are $16.60, up 3.6%.

The Global X Copper Miners AUD ETF (ASX: WIRE) also reached a record $28.98 per unit in January.

Today, WIRE ETF is $25.55 per unit, up 3.2%.

Why is the copper price rising?

Copper is benefiting from increasing global demand due to the energy transition.

Copper is essential for electrification in the major infrastructure being built to create a greener energy supply, such as wind turbines.

Top broker Goldman Sachs says new grid and power infrastructure built in 2025 required more than 11,300 kilotonnes of copper.

On top of that, electric vehicles (EVs) and renewables required 4,118 kilotonnes.

The building industry in China used 3,471 kilotonnes of copper last year, and data centres ate up 369 kilotonnes, the broker said.

The copper price is also being pushed higher by the debasement trade.

A debasement trade occurs when currencies weaken.

This inspires investors to move from paper assets, like cash and bonds, into hard assets, like metals, and particularly gold.

The most notable currency losing value right now is the US dollar, which is the world's primary reserve currency.

Reflecting rising interest in copper, leading global metals specialist, Sprott, launched the world's first physical copper fund in mid-2024.

After 18 months of trading, the Sprott Physical Copper Trust (TSE: COP.U) has a net asset value of $190 million at US$11.87 per unit.

Sprott says:

Demand for electricity is estimated to increase 157% by 2050 as middle classes grow in the East, clean energy technologies proliferate, electric vehicles (EVs) gain market shares and artificial intelligence (AI) data centers provide a new demand shock for copper markets.

Amid rising long-term demand, the copper price is also supported by restricted long-term supply.

Sprott analysts Paul Wong and Jacob White say it takes an average of 17 years to develop a copper mine from discovery to production.

Sprott says:

While Chile is the world's largest copper producer, ore grades are declining and supply disruptions are common.

Major new copper discoveries are infrequent, and lead times and costs to develop new mines are significant.

Based on projections, copper supplies are not expected to keep up with the growing demand for copper over time.

In the short-term, Goldman Sachs noted a 600 kilotonne (kt) surplus of supply in 2025, the largest absolute surplus since 2009, after miners ramped up production to meet rising demand.

But in the long term, Goldman acknowledges the 'unique constraints' in copper mining production.

What's next for the copper price?

In a recent report, Goldman Sachs Research increased its copper price forecast for the first half of 2026.

The team expects the copper price to remain about $13,000 per tonne before declining to $11,200 per tonne by the end of the year.

The decline relies on the assumption that the US will announce a 15% tariff on refined copper by mid-2026, to be implemented in 2027.

Analyst Eoin Dinsmore said US buyers have been stockpiling copper to get ahead of the possible tax.

But there is uncertainty as to whether a tariff will eventuate — either this year or at all — particularly given that affordability remains a key focus in the lead up to US mid-term elections in November.

This uncertainty continues to support the copper price at current levels.

Dinsmore said:

We are very likely in the late stages of this rally, but US economic growth, AI spending, and US stockpiling will likely remain supportive in the coming months.

However, Dinsmore said the copper price had "overshot its fair fundamental level" and a decision on tariffs should provide a "catalyst for a correction".

That's the short-term picture.

In the long term, Goldman favours copper over other industrial metals like aluminium, lithium, and iron ore.

In its 2026 Commodities Outlook, the broker said:

Despite the recent rally in copper prices and our expected consolidation in 2026, it remains our 'favorite' industrial metal, especially in the long-run, as electrification — which drives nearly half of copper demand — implies structurally strong demand growth and as copper mine supply faces unique constraints.

The post Copper price forecast for 2026: Goldman Sachs appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The company said last month that the strike, involving members of Union #2, which started on January 2, had halted some production processes.

At the time, in late January, the company confirmed that striking workers were blocking access to the desalination plant, which had a knock-on effect on other operations.

As the company said at the time:

During the evening of January 18, individuals entered the desalination plant facilities, located 40 kilometres from the Mantoverde mine, while workers were inside performing regular duties. Subsequently, interference with the desalination plant's electrical system resulted in the interruption of water supply to Mantoverde. Striking union members are preventing access and the restart of facility operations at the desalination plant. At Mantoverde, on-site water reserves continue to be used for essential services. Sulphide operations are temporarily halted while oxide operations are expected to continue until tomorrow, at which point they will be temporarily halted unless water supply is restored.  

New agreement inked

Capstone said on Friday morning that the strike had now come to an end, with a new three-year collective bargaining agreement struck with the union.

The company added:

Following an agreement with Union #2, Mantoverde has now successfully negotiated new three-year collective bargaining agreements with all four unions and will continue its focus on safe and responsible mining which brings great benefits to the workforce and surrounding communities. Capstone's priority is to safely and efficiently return to full operations at Mantoverde, which operated at approximately 55% of normal production levels during the strike.

Capstone owns 70% of the Mantoverde operations, with Mitsubishi Materials Corporation owning the rest.

The company has said in previous press releases that Union #2 represents about 22% of the total workforce at Mantoverde.

Capstone shares were 4.5% lower at $15.32 on Friday morning, most likely reflecting weakness in the copper price overnight rather than the impact of the end of the strike.

Other major miners were also weaker on Friday, with BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) down 2.6% at $49.03 and South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) down 4% at $4.41.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares were 0.1% lower at $156.91, while junior copper producer Hillgrove Resources Ltd (ASX: HGO) was trading 7.7% lower at 4.8 cents.

Capstone was valued at $15.1 billion at the close of trade on Thursday.

The post Capstone Copper shares in a slump despite good news out of Chile appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.