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Sebastian Bowen has been a Motley Fool contributor since late 2018. Sebastian found his passion for writing and educating others about shares and all things finance after completing his studies in political, economic, and social science, and he enjoys bringing this passion to life at the Fool. His investment philosophy is simple – buying high-quality companies at sensible prices. When he’s not researching his next investment at all hours of the morning, Sebastian enjoys classic movies and unwinds with a good book, newspaper, or record.
Areas of Expertise
Dividend investing
ETFs
Education
Bachelor of Political, Economic, and Social Sciences (Government and International Relations), University of Sydney
"In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine."
– Benjamin Graham
Published
It seems like only yesterday that the ASX, as well as the entire investing world, was abuzz with excitement over 'the biggest IPO ever'. I'm, of course, referring to the blockbuster debut of Elon Musk's SpaceX back in June. Fast forward just three months, and it's artificial intelligence (AI) giant Anthropic's potential IPO that has reset the board.
Back in June, no one had ever seen a stock market debut quite like that of SpaceX. When this company's shares hit the American public markets for the first time, it seemed everyone in the world wanted a piece, including investors in Australia. In an unprecedented development, CommSec and other brokers were offering SpaceX shares to Australian investors directly, giving us an opportunity to directly participate in an American market float.
It is very possible that this level of global market permeation will also be extended for the initial public offering (IPO) of Anthropic. As such, this promises to be a float for the ages.
Anthropic is the AI company behind the uber-popular Claude platform. Emerging from the middle of the pack over the past year or two, Claude has grown into one of the world's most beloved AI engines. It is renowned for its discursive abilities, as well as its coding prowess. Depending on your yardsticks and personal preferences, it is either the best AI model out there, or at least comes close.
Image Source: Getty Images
What is Anthropic?
Now, Anthropic is set to test investors' appetites for co-investment from the public markets. Of course, rumours of an IPO had been imminent for a while. But this week, Anthropic released its IPO prospectus, which lays out its roadmap to a public float.
Anthropic is one of the remaining AI companies that have yet to float on the public markets. Google-owner Alphabet, which runs the capable Gemini platform, has been on the share market for more than two decades now. It's a similar story with Meta Platforms, which has recently made waves with its Muse agent. We've already discussed SpaceX, which has the Grok platform in its stable. Once Anthropic floats, it will leave ChatGPT-owner OpenAI as perhaps the last major American AI company to remain on the private side of the ledger.
Anthropic's prospectus is an interesting one to read. Much has been made of its lofty, and somewhat bipolar, risks and goals. It's not often that the phrases "The possibilities include compressing decades of scientific progress into years; accelerating drug discovery, disease detection… and extending to the developing world capabilities that took wealthy nations generations to build", and "pose catastrophic or existential risks to humanity" appear in a company document that is attempting to attract investor capital.
Aside from the expansive deliberations on what AI could mean for the future of our species, the prospectus also gave us a deep insight into this company's financials. And boy, are they breathtaking.
A look under Claude's hood
Gb fgneg jvgu, vg vf irel pyrne gung Naguebcvp vf tebjvat yvxr n jrrq. Gur pbzcnal ercbegrq erirahrf bs HF$11.6 ovyyvba sbe gur dhnegre raqrq 30 Whar 2026, n curabzrany vapernfr bire gur HF$4.7 ovyyvba vg ercbegrq sbe gur dhnegre raqvat 31 Znepu. Jung'f zber, Naguebcvp'f Whar dhnegre oebhtug va zber guna gra gvzrf jung gung fnzr dhnegre bire 2025 qvq (whfg HF$800 zvyyvba).
Bire gur svefg fvk zbaguf bs 2026, guvf pbzcnal enxrq va HF$16.3 ovyyvba. Gung pbzcnerf gb n gbgny bs HF$4.6 ovyyvba bire gur ragvergl bs 2025.
Rkcybqvat cebsvgf naq rkcybqvat rkcrafrf nf Naguebcvp arnef na VCB
Bs pbhefr, guvf tebjgu unf abg pbzr purnc. Naguebcvp vf fgvyy ehaavat ng na birenyy ybff, ercbegvat HF$16.98 ovyyvba va bcrengvat rkcrafrf bire gur svefg fvk zbaguf bs 2026. Gung'f fvtavsvpnagyl zber guna gur HF$12.65 ovyyvba vg fcrag bire gur 12 zbaguf bs 2025.
Fgvyy, gurer ner fvtaf guvf pbhyq or nobhg gb fjvat nebhaq. Gur pbzcnal ercbegrq n cbfvgvir nqwhfgrq bcrengvat vapbzr bs HF$1.62 ovyyvba sbe gur svefg fvk zbaguf bs 2026, hc sebz gur HF$1.85 ovyyvba ybff bire gur fnzr crevbq va 2025.
Fb vg'f pyrne guvf vf n cerggl rkpvgvat pbzcnal (qvfertneqvat gur 'raq bs uhznavgl' jneavatf naljnl). Ubjrire, V jvyy abg or cnegvpvcngvat va gur Naguebcvp VCB jura vg qbrf bpphe. V nz abg rira grzcgrq. Naq V jbhyq tb fb sne nf gb nqivfr NFK vairfgbef abg gb rvgure.
Gung'f abg gb fnl gung V qba'g guvax Naguebcvp vf na rkpvgvat, cbgragvnyyl yhpengvir, be qbzvanag pbzcnal. V pregnvayl guvax vg unf gur cbgragvny gb or na rkpryyrag vairfgzrag ybat grez. Zl vffhr vf jvgu vgf VCB.
Nf n ehyr, V arire ohl vagb VCBf, ab znggre ubj rkpvgvat gur pbzcnal znl ybbx. V jnfa'g grzcgrq ol FcnprK be Thmzna l Tbzrk Ygq (NFK: TLT), naq V jba'g or frqhprq ol Naguebcvp. Jul? Jryy, gurer ner guerr znva ernfbaf.
Guerr ernfbaf V jba'g or ohlvat gur Naguebcvp VCB
Svefgyl, V guvax VCBf ner qrfvtarq gb envfr nf zhpu zbarl nf cbffvoyr sbe gur pbzcnal. Naq gb znkvzvfr cebsvgf sbe gubfr jub nyernql bja funerf, nf jryy nf gur onaxref naq oebxref jub ner uverq gb znexrg gubfr funerf gb gur oebnqre choyvp. Abguvat zber. V oryvrir gung jura gurfr onaxref fvg qbja jvgu nal pbzcnal gung jnagf gb VCB, gurer'f n qvfphffvba gung gnxrf cynpr eribyivat nebhaq 'ubj uvtu jvyy gur cevpr qb lbh guvax gur choyvp jvyy cnl sbe bhe funerf or'. Vg vf pregnvayl abg 'ubj zhpu inyhr pna jr bssre gur nirentr ergnvy vairfgbe'.
Frpbaqyl, gubfr oebxref, onaxref, naq vafvqref gel gb ulcr hc gur VCB nf zhpu nf cbffvoyr. Gurl jnag rirel zna, jbzna, puvyq, naq gurve qbtf gnyxvat nobhg vg. Guvf nvzf gb rafher gurer vf nf zhpu vagrerfg naq genqvat npgvivgl nf cbffvoyr jura gur funerf uvg gur znexrg. Ubjrire, guvf nyfb graqf gb unir gur rssrpg bs vapernfvat gur ibyngvyvgl bs gubfr funerf nf jryy. Vs lbh ohl gurz orsber gur sybng, be rira evtug ng gur tngr, gurer vf n ovt punapr gung lbh jvyy fcraq lbhe svefg qnl nf na Naguebcvp funerubyqre jvgu n cebireovny svfg va gur zbhgu, juvgr-xahpxyvat vg nf lbh jngpu gur inyhr bs lbhe funerf frrfnj nebhaq.
Fher, gur funerf zvtug fcvxr ba gurve svefg qnl, naq lbh znl or noyr gb fryy ng n gvql cebsvg. Gung'f pregnvayl unccrarq orsber. Ohg vs lbh'er onaxvat ba gung, lbh znl nf jryy tb qbja gb gur pnfvab naq chg lbhe zbarl ba oynpx vafgrnq. V'q jntre lbh'q trg fyvtugyl orggre bqqf.
Fbzr svany Naguebcvp gubhtugf
Guveqyl, va zl rkcrevrapr (naq V'ir jngpurq n srj VCBf eha gurve pbhefr va zl gvzr), pbzcnavrf irel eneryl fgnl nobir gurve VCB cevpr bire gurve svefg srj zbaguf bs genqvat. Chg nabgure jnl, gurer'f n tbbq punapr lbh'yy trg n purncre ohlvat cevpr vs lbh whfg jnvg sbe gur qhfg gb frggyr. Gung'f rknpgyl jung unccrarq gb FcnprK onpx va Whar.
Vairfgbef jub fvtarq hc sbe gur VCB obhtug gur pbzcnal ng gur sybng cevpr bs HF$135 n funer va Whar. Ol Nhthfg, gurve funerf uvg n ybj bs HF$104.83. Gur pbzcnal vf onpx nobir vgf VCB cevpr abj (ng gur gvzr bs jevgvat, naljnl). Ohg vg tbrf gb fubj whfg ubj zhpu ibyngvyvgl n serfu, ulcrq VCB fgbpx pna rkuvovg va vgf svefg srj zbaguf.
V'z abg fnlvat gung jvyy unccra jvgu gur Naguebcvp VCB. Ohg vg'f n yvir cebfcrpg ng gur irel yrnfg.
Naguebcvp vf na rkpvgvat pbzcnal jvgu na vaperqvoyr cebqhpg. Vs vgf VCB tbrf nurnq, gur HF znexrgf jvyy cebonoyl unir lrg nabgure zhygv-gevyyvba pbzcnal ba vgf obneqf. Creuncf bar qnl, V jvyy or n qverpg funerubyqre. Ubjrire, V unir lrg gb frr na VCB gung jnf jbegu ohlvat vagb evtug bhg bs gur tngr. Creuncf Naguebcvp jvyy or gur svefg. Ohg V jba'g or orggvat zl pncvgny ba vg.
