Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares have climbed higher into the green in Thursday afternoon trade.
At the time of writing, the ASX energy shares are up around 2% and are changing hands at $9.16 apiece.
Today's increase continues an incredible share price rally for the oil and gas giant over the past year. The shares are now 45% higher than trading levels 12 months ago, and up a huge 49% for the year-to-date.
For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up around 0.5% for the day, at the time of writing. This index is down around 3% over the past month and around 0.5% lower than 12 months ago.
The question now is, are Santos shares still a buy? Or will any investment made today turn into an inevitable loss by late-October 2027?
Let's take a look.
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Analyst outlooks on Santos shares
Santos shares have rocketed higher in late-2025 and picked up pace in 2026. The main driver has been ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East which continue to keep oil prices high. And this has directly lifted the company's revenue and profit margin.
Continued disruptions to the movement of oil out of the region pushed global oil prices above US$110 a barrel earlier this year, and after a brief drop around July, renewed conflict has seen oil prices surge again in October. At the time of writing, oil prices are trading above US$101 per barrel, according to Trading Economics data.
It doesn't look like the Middle East war is coming to an end anytime soon. And the experts are also bullish that ongoing tensions and tight oil supply can drive more growth out of Santos.
TradingView data shows the majority of analysts (13 out of 17) have a buy/strong buy rating on the shares. The $9.31 average target price implies a modest upside of around 2% at the time of writing. However some more optimistic forecasts suggest the shares have the potential to climb around 16% to a maximum $10.59 price target, by late-October next year.
The data is similar on Market Index. Again, the majority (3 out of 4) have a strong buy rating on Santos shares. Although the average $9.18 target price is practically flat to the share price at the time of writing.
So, if I buy $5,000 of the shares today, what could they be worth in 12 months?
Broker forecasts show that the same explosive growth isn't likely to happen again over the next 12 months. But, if the top end of broker forecasts come to fruition, a $5,000 investment in Santos shares today could still turn into a gain by late-October next year.
The highest forecasted upsides of between 2% to 16% suggest that a $5,000 investment in Santos shares could turn into $5,100 to $5,800 by this time next year.
