National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares may be one of the most popular choices for passive income on the ASX.
As one of Australia's largest banks, the business has strong economic power that many other companies don't have. The size of the business and the strength of its balance sheet give the bank pleasing advantages.
Of course, generating strong profits means the bank can pay a good dividend to investors. But, after multiple RBA rate rises, what do experts think could happen with the NAB dividend in the year ahead?
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Projection for owners of NAB shares
The bank's 2026 financial year has just ended, with it being the financial period ending 30 September 2026. Although we haven't seen the result yet, we can now look ahead to what may happen in the 2027 financial year.
According to the projection on CMC Invest, the ASX bank share is projected to pay an annual dividend per share of $1.70 in FY26 – that's the year that has just gone.
But we want to look at the dividend payment that could happen for the financial year ahead.
Based on CMC Invest's projection, the business is forecast to slightly increase its shareholder payout to $1.705 per share. That would represent a year-over-year increase of 0.3%, not much, but better than nothing.
At the time of writing and the current NAB share price, that works out to be a cash dividend yield of 4.4% excluding franking credits. If we include the franking credits as part of the potential passive income, then the grossed-up dividend yield becomes 6.3%.
What would a $15,000 investment in the ASX bank share do?
At the time of writing, if someone were to invest $15,000 into NAB shares, they'd be able to buy 390 shares.
With that investment in the ASX bank share, those shares could unlock $664.95 of dividend cash and $949.93 of grossed-up dividend income, including franking credits.
In my view, that's a solid passive income payout to start with.
Is this a good time to invest in NAB shares?
Time will tell how the company performs in the 2026 financial year, but given expectations and the current economic environment, analysts are divided on the business.
According to CMC Invest, 10 analysts have rated the business in the last three months. Three of those rating calls were a buy, four were a hold, and three were a sell.
The average price target for those 10 ratings was $39.13, suggesting a slight rise over the coming year at the time of writing.
However, the most pessimistic price target is $29.08, implying (at the time of writing), a decline of 24% over the year ahead. Meanwhile, the most optimistic price target is $48.64, suggesting a possible rise of 26% over the next 12 months.
Time will tell whether analysts are right to be pessimistic or optimistic about the ASX bank share. But with NAB's slow growth in mind, there are other ASX shares I'd concentrate on first.
