What would it take for CSL shares to return to $250?

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares have already recovered strongly from their lows, but they remain well below $250.

At around $182.00 today, the healthcare giant would need to rise approximately 37% to get there.

So what would need to happen for CSL shares to return to $250?

The earnings outlook is positive

I think earnings growth can provide part of the answer.

Consensus forecasts point to earnings per share (EPS) of $8.99 in FY27, $9.48 in FY28, and $10.08 in FY29.

That is not explosive growth, but it would represent steady progress over the next few years.

At the current share price, CSL trades on a PE ratio of roughly 20 times forecast FY27 earnings.

That multiple falls to around 19 times FY28 earnings and just over 18 times the FY29 estimate.

For me, that leaves room for the share price to climb if CSL delivers on those forecasts.

What would CSL be worth at $250?

At $250, the shares would trade at almost 28 times forecast FY27 earnings.

That would be a significant premium to today's valuation and would require investors to become much more confident about the outlook.

But the hurdle falls as earnings grow.

Against FY28 EPS of $9.48, a $250 share price would represent around 26 times earnings. Using the FY29 forecast of $10.08, the multiple falls to just under 25 times.

That looks more achievable to me.

CSL would still need a re-rating from today's valuation, but the company would also have higher earnings supporting that share price.

What would need to go right?

For me, the first requirement would be a continued recovery in CSL's underlying performance.

Demand for immunoglobulins remains central to the CSL Behring story. If that demand stays strong and CSL can continue increasing the amount of plasma available to meet it, there should be room for revenue and earnings to keep growing.

The economics of collecting that plasma are also important.

I would want to see continued improvements in collection efficiency and plasma yields, because producing more finished product from the collection network can help margins as well as volumes.

That could be particularly important for rebuilding profitability in CSL Behring after the pressure seen over recent years.

Product development could provide another leg of growth.

CSL has a substantial research and development pipeline, and successful new products or expanded uses for existing therapies could create additional earnings streams beyond the company's established franchises.

If the company can combine strong immunoglobulin demand, better plasma economics, margin improvement, and contributions from newer products, the current consensus earnings trajectory starts to look much more achievable.

And if investors become convinced that the recovery is sustainable, I think they could become willing to pay a higher multiple for those earnings again.

Foolish takeaway

I think $250 is achievable for CSL shares, but it will need more than time.

The company needs to keep growing immunoglobulin volumes, improve plasma collection economics, rebuild margins, and make progress with newer products.

If that translates into EPS of around $10 by FY29, a $250 share price would imply a PE ratio of roughly 25 times.

I think that is possible if CSL can restore confidence in its growth story.