New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC) shares have delivered investors some seriously outsized returns over the past year.
How seriously?
Well, in late morning trade on Monday, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) coal stock are trading for $5.68 apiece. This sees the share price up 41.7% since this time last year, smashing the 2% 12-month losses posted by the ASX 200.
And that's not including the two fully-franked New Hope dividends, totalling 40 cents per share, that the coal miner paid out (or shortly will pay out) over this period. If we add those back in, then the accumulated value of New Hope shares has surged 51.6% in a year.
New Hope stock traded ex-dividend on 21 September. If you held shares at market close on 21 September, you can expect the final fully-franked 30-cent-per-share dividend to land in your bank account on 15 October.
At current prices, New Hope stock trades on a fully-franked trailing dividend yield of 7%. That equates to a grossed-up yield of 10.1%, once we account for those franking credits.
Atop its own operational successes on and below the ground, New Hope has been benefiting from resurgent global coal prices.
At US$144 per tonne, thermal coal (primarily used for energy production) prices are up approximately 35% in 12 months. And thermal coal prices have lifted more than 21% since the end of February, amid the worldwide energy crunch following the outbreak of the Iran war.
But following on this strong run, is the ASX 200 coal stock now a buy, hold, or sell?
Image source: Getty Images
New Hope shares: Buy, hold, or sell?
Fairmont Equities' Michael Gable recently ran his slide rule over the ASX 200 coal miner (courtesy of The Bull).
"I remain bullish about this thermal coal producer, as the war in Iran is leading other countries to lift demand for thermal coal to offset instability in gas markets," Gable noted.
Commenting on the miner's recent performance and passive income appeal, Gable said:
The company generated saleable coal production of 11.5 million tonnes in full year 2026, up 7.6 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Production was above market expectations as was the final, fully franked dividend of 30 cents a share.
Along with lifting production, New Hope also increased its total coal resources over the year, which grew to 2.96 billion tonnes as at 31 May, up from 2.55 billion tonnes year on year.
Summarising his hold recommendation on New Hope shares, Gable concluded, "The share price uptrend since early July is sustainable, in my view."
