Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (ASX: TAH) and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares are both outpacing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) in morning trade on Monday.
At time of writing the ASX 200 is down 0.2%.
Trading for 92 cents apiece, Tabcorp shares are up 1.1% at this same time, while NAB shares are just in the green, up 0.1% at $38.51 each.
Taking a step back, however, both stocks have underperformed the 0.1% losses posted by benchmark index in 2026.
Year to date, NAB shares have slipped 9.2% while the Tabcorp share price is down 8.1% this calendar year.
Although that's not including the dividends both companies pay. Tabcorp trades on a 3.2% unfranked trailing dividend yield, while NAB trades on a fully franked 4.4% trailing dividend yield.
But, dividends or not, Catapult Wealth's Dylan Evans expects that growing headwinds leading into 2027 put both of these popular ASX 200 stocks on the sell list (courtesy of The Bull).
Here's why.
Image source: Getty Images
Time to exit NAB shares?
Evans noted NAB's relatively strong Q3 performance.
"Revenue grew by 2 per cent in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 when compared to the first half quarterly average. Cash earnings also increased by 2 per cent," he said.
But the growth may not be sustainable in the coming quarters.
"In our view, the broader banking sector is facing several headwinds," Evans added.
Summarising his sell recommendation on NAB shares, he said:
The Federal government announced changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing in the May Budget. Investment loan applications have slowed amid a cost of living crisis. While the NAB business is well managed and the balance sheet is solid, it's difficult to identify any significant growth on the horizon.
Investors may want to consider taking some profits and explore superior earnings growth opportunities elsewhere.
Should you sell Tabcorp shares today?
Atop his bearish assessment for the outlook of NAB shares, Evans also issued a sell recommendation on Tabcorp shares.
"Tabcorp is the largest multi-channel wagering brand in Australia," he said.
Looking at Tabcorp's FY 2026 results, Evans said:
The company generated group revenue of $2.636 billion in full year 2026, up 0.8 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Group EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation] of $431.7 million was up 10.3 per cent.
But, as with NAB, Tabcorp could be facing some mounting headwinds.
Commenting on his sell recommendation, Evans said:
In our view, a major challenge for Tabcorp is the highly competitive gambling industry and the underlying trend towards digital wagering amid the risk of potentially tighter regulations. The company expects domestic wagering turnover growth in fiscal year 2027 to be broadly consistent with fiscal year 2026, excluding the FIFA World Cup.
The shares have fallen from $1.17 on May 1 to trade at 90 cents on September 17. Other stocks appeal more at this stage of the cycle.
