The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is an interesting investment proposition to consider, given how much it has risen in recent times. In the last year, the ASX mining share has risen by a whopping 55%.
There are some great reasons why the company has gone up so much. Its operational performance has been strong, and commodity prices have been supportive of the company's earnings performance.
Not only does the business continue to produce pleasing levels of resources, but it's possible the company could continue to deliver for shareholders.
Let's look at how good the latest result was from the business and what could happen next with a $10,000 investment.
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Strong FY26 result
The ASX mining share recently reported its result for the 12 months to 30 June 2026.
It revealed that revenue grew by 15% to US$58.8 billion. This helped the company's underlying operating profit (EBITDA) grow by 27% to $32.9 billion. Underlying attributable net profit increased by 30% to US$13.2 billion, while attributable profit rose by 9% US$9.8 billion.
All of this allowed the business to increase its final dividend to US 99 cents per share and the annual dividend per share was hiked to US$1.72. This full-year dividend comes to US$8.7 billion.
Copper was the key driver of its earnings growth. The average realised price rose 35% to US$5.74 per pound, helping underlying operating profit (EBITDA) rise 48% to US$18.2 billion. Global copper demand is expected to grow by 2.8% in the 2026 calendar year.
BHP expects global copper demand to grow from around 34mt per annum today to more than 50mt per annum by the 2050 calendar year.
There are multiple growth drivers for copper, including traditional economic growth (home building, electrical equipment and household appliances), the energy transition (renewables and electric vehicles) and digital (artificial intelligence and data centres).
BHP said current expectations are that copper demand associated with investment in data centres could grow around "sixfold" between 2024 and 2050, up to around 3mt per annum.
What could happen with a $10,000 investment in BHP shares?
Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance, particularly when it comes to a volatile/cyclical business like an ASX mining share.
According to CMC Invest, there have been 14 ratings on the business within the last three months, with the FY26 result giving investors a significant reason to update their views on the business.
The average price target of those ratings is $58.56, suggesting a possible decline of 13% over the next year. Even the most positive price target suggests the BHP share price will be flat in a year from now.
Given that projected decline, a $10,000 investment could drop in value to $8,700.
Therefore, experts are suggesting the BHP share price isn't the best place to invest. Instead, investors should look for more compelling opportunities.
