BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have had a strong rally throughout August.
At the time of writing, the ASX mining stock is up around 12% over the past month, and is a huge 58% higher than 12 months ago.
For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has increased by around 3% over the past month and is 2% higher than it was 12 months ago, at the time of writing.
Can BHP shares keep climbing higher next month? Is it time to snap up the stock before the next rally or have the shares reached a ceiling?
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What happened to BHP shares in August?
BHP started trending higher in early August as the market grew more bullish on copper prices.
But the share price picked up pace after the miner reported its record FY26 earnings results on the 18th of August.
The group posted a strong operational performance across all its key segments and an impressive 27% increase in its underlying EBITDA.
Investors were clearly thrilled with the update and many have rushed to snap up a stake in the mining company.
Should I buy BHP shares before the end of the month?
If broker analysis is anything to go by, it looks like the shares are now trading around, or even a little above, fair value.
Market Index data shows the majority of brokers have a hold rating on BHP shares. But after the August rally, the average $61.78 target price now implies a potential 8% downside ahead, at the time of writing.
TradingView data shows similar sentiment. The majority of analysts (14 out of 24) have a hold rating on BHP shares. Another six rate the mining stock as a strong buy, and four rate the shares as a sell/strong sell.
Again, the average $62.68 target price now implies a potential 7% downside over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.
However, the range between the maximum and minimum target prices is huge. Some forecast the shares to fall around 35% to $35.14. Meanwhile, others are bullish that BHP shares could soar 36% higher to $91.71 over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.
The team at Morgans downgraded its outlook on BHP shares to a sell and reduced its 12-month target price to $55.30 after the company announced its FY26 results. The broker noted that while it was a solid result, the share price already factors in more upside.
John Athanasiou from Red Leaf Securities has a hold rating on BHP shares following the FY26 results announcement last week. He said that the quality of BHP's asset base, balance sheet and diversified portfolio leaves existing shareholders with little reason to sell. But after a solid run, he said investors may be better off waiting for a more attractive entry point.
Morgan Stanley renewed its buy rating on BHP shares after the miner's FY26 report and increased its 12-month price target to $67.50.
