CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) has given investors plenty to think about this year.
The biotechnology giant has been through a difficult period, but the outlook now suggests earnings could move steadily higher over the next few years.
So, would I buy the shares before August is over?
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The earnings outlook catches my attention
CSL shares are currently trading around $172.79.
According to CommSec, consensus earnings per share forecasts now stand at $9.08 in FY27, $9.53 in FY28, and $10.15 in FY29.
That implies earnings growth of around 5% in FY28 followed by another 7% in FY29.
For me, the direction is encouraging.
CSL has spent the past few years dealing with higher costs, operational challenges, and weaker investor confidence. A sustained return to earnings growth would suggest the business is moving beyond some of those problems.
At the current share price, CSL trades on a PE ratio of roughly 19 times forecast FY27 earnings, falling to around 17 times FY29 earnings.
I think that looks reasonable if the company can deliver the growth analysts currently expect.
There are still good businesses underneath
The long-term investment case still rests heavily on CSL Behring.
Its plasma-derived therapies are used to treat serious and often chronic conditions, creating demand that can continue regardless of what is happening in the wider economy.
CSL has spent decades building the plasma collection, manufacturing, and distribution network needed to compete at global scale. That is not something a new competitor could reproduce quickly.
There are also newer products that could contribute more over time, while continued investment in manufacturing should help CSL serve growing demand for immunoglobulin and other plasma therapies.
I think that combination gives CSL a credible path to increasing earnings for years rather than relying on a short-term rebound.
I would still expect some bumps
CSL has hardly provided investors with a smooth ride recently.
The company has gone through restructuring, impairments, changing expectations, and periods when parts of the business have disappointed.
There are still risks to consider. The recovery could take longer than expected, costs could remain elevated, new products may not grow as quickly as hoped, and currency movements can affect a business earning revenue around the world.
That makes the consensus forecasts important to monitor rather than something I would simply assume will happen.
I would also expect the share price to remain sensitive to any change in the recovery story.
Foolish takeaway
Yes, I would buy CSL shares before the end of August.
The business still has work to do, and recent performance is a reminder that even high-quality companies can go through difficult periods.
But I think the expected earnings trajectory is moving in the right direction, while the current valuation leaves room for that recovery to create value for shareholders.
If CSL can rebuild momentum over the next few years, I think buying at around $172.79 could prove worthwhile for patient investors.
