It seems strange to think about now, but it really wasn't that long ago that bank stock Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) was the largest share on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).
CBA held this crown for a long time, but it was usurped back in January by none other than BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP). The mining giant only held on to said crown for a few weeks, returning it to CBA in February. By March, though, BHP was back on top, and has been there ever since.
Today, the gap looks almost insurmountable. As we speak, BHP rules the ASX 200 roost with its market capitalisation of just over $344 billion. CBA comes in a distant second at a value of $262.75 billion.
In an ASX 200 index fund, this means that BHP commands about a 12% weighting, with CBA taking up 9.6%.
Given that just a few months ago, these two titans of the ASX were in lockstep, it is worth asking the question: 'Will CBA shareholders take back the crown that it relinquished to BHP many moons ago?'
Well, the theoretical answer is of course yes. The ASX has seen many swings and roundabouts in the makeup of its top echelons over many decades. If CBA has supplanted BHP before, there's no reason it cannot do so again. And vice versa.
So let's look at what it took to get where we are today.
Image source: Getty Images
CBA vs BHP shares: The race to the top of the ASX 200
CBA shares have really had a year to forget in 2026. The stock is down about 2.5% year to date. It has had a lacklustre 12 months too, with the bank last hitting a record high of $192 a share back in June of 2025. Today, at $157.01, it is down more than 18% from that all-time high. An arguably stretched valuation, as well as concerns over housing and financial markets in Australia, are the likely culprits for this drop.
Meanwhile, BHP has been firing on all cylinders. The 'Big Australian's bet on copper has paid off handsomely, with roaring prices pushing BHP stock to reset its own record highs several times over 2026 to date. The most recent record came just yesterday, seeing the miner hit $68.22 a share.
Year to date, BHP has now lifted an astonishing 47.88%.
So we can see how the disparity between BHP and CBA shares has established itself.
But all it would take for the gap to narrow, or even invert, would be a change in economic conditions. BHP is a resources stock, and thus highly sensitive to commodity prices. If prices came off the boil, you can bet that BHP's shares would follow, and sharply.
If CBA held its own or even attracted buyers looking for a safe haven (the company has benefited from this before), we could well see Commonwealth Bank regain its ASX 200 crown. It's entirely possible. But whether it happens next month, next year or next decade is the $80 billion question.
