The Commonwealth bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price has headed lower in the past couple of weeks, as the chart below shows. This is a good time to look at whether the ASX bank share is primed to deliver good returns for investors.
CBA recently released its FY26 results, and investors got a good look at the numbers. It wasn't enough to support the CBA share price, and the drop in home loan applications could be challenging for earnings growth in the 2027 financial year.
But at this lower valuation, experts may feel more confident about the potential for capital growth from here. Let's take a look at what a $15,000 investment in CBA shares could do, which could currently buy 90 CBA shares at the time of writing (with $150 change left over).
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CBA share price projection
A share price target indicates where the analyst believes the share price could go over the next 12 months.
According to CMC Invest, there have been eight ratings on ASX bank share in the last three months. All of them were sell ratings.
The average price target across those eight ratings was $122.33, according to CMC Invest, suggesting a possible 26% decline (at the time of writing) over the next 12 months. The most optimistic price target suggests a 12% decline to $144.99, while the most pessimistic implies a 45% decline to $90.
Of course, share price targets are not guaranteed future movements of the valuation, but it certainly doesn't suggest a rosy outlook for the business.
Analysts aren't disputing the quality of the ASX Bank share. But there is a widespread view that the CBA share price trades at a relatively high price/earnings (P/E) ratio compared to its peers, ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB).
Therefore, the CBA shares could become worth around $11,000, a drop of almost $4,000.
Commonwealth Bank dividend
The main positive for CBA shareholders is that the business could pay a slightly larger annual dividend per share in FY27.
According to the independent on Commsec, the ASX bank share could pay an annual dividend per share of $5.15 in FY27. At the time of writing, that translates into a dividend yield of 3.1%, excluding franking credits.
With 90 Commonwealth Bank shares, an investor could receive $463.50.
Potential shareholder return
Overall, those analyst projections imply the business could deliver a negative total shareholder return (TSR) of around 23%.
In other words, the starting $15,000 could decline in value to around $11,000 of CBA shares, $463 of dividend cash, and $150 of money not invested at the start.
At the current CBA share price, there seem to be better ideas out there.
