CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares have staged a remarkable comeback, surging 24% in just five trading days and around 40% over the past month.
Yet despite the explosive rally, the ASX biotech stock remains down about 3% year to date and 22% over the past 12 months.
So, has the market finally turned the corner or has the rally gone too far? Following last week's earnings result, brokers have reassessed their forecasts. And their price targets reveal just how divided the experts are about where CSL shares could go next.
Could $200 really be on the cards?
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Why are CSL shares on the rise?
The catalyst was CSL's FY26 result, released last week Tuesday. At first glance, the numbers looked disastrous. CSL reported a US$2.6 billion net loss after tax.
But investors quickly looked beneath the headline figure. The loss included US$7.1 billion of pre-tax impairments and another US$799 million in restructuring costs, much of which was non-cash. Most of the impairments related to CSL Vifor intangibles and under-utilised property, plant and equipment.
Investors had already been warned. In May, CSL flagged around US$5 billion of impairments and cut its FY26 guidance.
Strip those exceptional costs out, however, and the picture looks considerably healthier. Underlying NPATA was US$3.1 billion, down just 2%, while revenue slipped 1% to US$15.8 billion — ahead of analyst expectations.
For investors, the result offered something potentially more important than a big profit: a reset year, a cleaner balance sheet and better-than-feared guidance.
CSL Behring remains the star performer. Its plasma division generated US$11.4 billion of revenue, while immunoglobulin revenue held steady at US$6.2 billion.
CSL Vifor grew revenue 3% to US$2.4 billion, although Seqirus remained a weak spot, with revenue falling 8% to US$2 billion.
Meanwhile, CSL's transformation program delivered US$176 million in savings, and management committed US$1.5 billion to expand US plasma collection capacity.
The forecast that could send CSL shares higher
Here's where the bull case gets interesting. CSL expects underlying NPAT to grow approximately 5% in FY27, ahead of consensus expectations of around 2%.
Behring is expected to deliver mid-single-digit growth, with immunoglobulins growing at a mid-to-high single-digit rate.
The major headache remains Vifor, where revenue is expected to plunge about 25% as iron generics enter the market.
Can CSL shares hit $200?
Not every broker is convinced.
Bell Potter retained its hold rating but lifted its target from $120 to $150. TradingView data shows 10 of 17 analysts have a hold rating, while seven rate CSL a buy or strong buy. The average 12-month target of $165.80 is below the current share price of around $168.30.
But the range is enormous. The most bullish forecasts see CSL climbing to $206.72, implying another 23% upside. At the other extreme, the lowest target is just $133.22, suggesting more than 20% downside.
Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX MQG) is the most bearish, with a neutral rating and target of just over $133. Of the leading brokers, UBS is the standout bull, targeting $181, while Morgan Stanley sees CSL reaching $172.
So, is $200 realistic? It is certainly possible, but the broker forecasts suggest investors shouldn't mistake a spectacular rebound for a guaranteed recovery.
