Owners of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares may not have seen a lot of net profit growth over the past decade, but investors may like to know what analysts are expecting of the ASX bank share in the coming two annual results and how that plays into the valuation.
Profit growth is not guaranteed, of course, but ANZ is facing somewhat challenging conditions, with loan demand facing headwinds amid taxation changes and higher interest rates.
But, at the same time, borrowers may be less reliable during this period of economic uncertainty and higher interest rates.
Despite that, shareholders will be pleased to know that the ASX bank share is predicted to grow earnings in the coming annual FY26 result. A projection is not a guarantee of growth, though.
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FY26
The ASX bank share's 2026 financial year finishes in September 2026, so there is still more than a month to go for ANZ.
But, the latest update from the bank showed further progress by the business.
Its quarterly cash profit of $1.9 billion showed 2% year-over-year growth. Net loans and advances were flat year-over-year at $846 billion, though there was an increase in constant currency terms.
The bank also reported that its cost-to-income ratio improved by 155 basis points (1.55%) year-over-year to 49.66%.
ANZ won't be able to cut costs every reporting period to grow earnings, but it made a sizeable difference in the FY26 third quarter. Operating income for the bank actually declined by 1% year-over-year, while operating expenses improved by 4%. That helped profit before provisions increase 3% to $2.8 billion.
It was a 6% rise in the provision charge to $102 million and a 4% rise in the income tax expense to $819 million that meant the cash profit growth was slower than the profit before provisions growth. Profit is important for supporting ANZ shares.
Analysts expect the ASX bank share's earnings per share (EPS) to rise to $2.566 in the 2026 financial year, according to Commsec.
FY27
There are a number of things that ANZ is working on to improve its operations in the coming years, including in FY27.
First, ANZ wants to embed its new leadership team and continue to drive a cultural reset.
Second, the ASX bank share wants to integrate Suncorp Bank faster to deliver value.
Third, ANZ wants to accelerate the delivery of its single customer digital front-end.
Fourth, it wants to reduce duplication and simplify the organisation. It noted that 84% of 3,500 announced roles exited the bank by the end of June 2026. Around of 73% of estimated gross cost savings of $875 million in FY26 were realised by the end of June 2026.
Fifth, it wants to enhance non-financial risk management to improve the ASX bank share's resilience.
The projection on Commsec suggests the business could see EPS slightly fall to $2.55 in FY27.
Therefore, ANZ's profit isn't likely to do much after FY26, so there could be better ASX shares to consider.
