Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares have been a solid choice for dividend income over the years because they have been more consistent than their banking peers.
While CBA doesn't have a dividend yield as large as names like Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) or National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), it does have a better track record of delivering payout growth, in my view.
In the recent FY26 result, CBA hiked its annual dividend per share of $5.05 following 7% growth of net profit to $11 billion and 8% statutory net profit growth to $10.9 billion.
Let's take a look at the analyst projections for what the CBA dividend could be between now and FY28.
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FY27
The Commonwealth Bank dividend has been steadily growing since the COVID-impacted year of 2020. That growth streak is expected to continue into the 2027 financial year and beyond.
When CBA announced its FY26 result, the ASX bank share provided some commentary.
CEO Matt Comyn said:
The Australian economy has remained resilient, supported by historically low unemployment and longer-term investment. However growth is slowing, with higher interest rates and inflation placing uneven pressure on household incomes and economic activity. Housing activity has softened from a high base. Application volumes appear to have stabilised in recent weeks. Businesses continue to manage higher input costs and supply uncertainty.
CBA enters FY27 with leading customer relationships, a broader franchise and a strong balance sheet. Our priorities are to deepen primary customer relationships, maintain discipline in our volume and margin choices, improve productivity, and deliver measurable customer, risk and financial benefits from our investments. Our capital, funding and liquidity positions provide flexibility and resilience as conditions evolve.
The bank also noted that it's carrying a $2.7 billion buffer relative to the losses expected under its central economic scenario.
Therefore, it seems the bank is suitably positioned to respond to a downturn if that happens. The ASX bank share can continue to deliver growth in FY27. According to the projection on Commsec, CBA's earnings per share (EPS) could rise slightly in FY27
The projection on Commsec also suggests that CBA could hike its annual dividend per share by 2% to $5.15 in FY27.
If the ASX bank share does deliver that payout, it would be a grossed-up dividend yield of 4.4%, including franking credits, at the time of writing.
FY28
The CBA dividend could rise again in the 2028 financial year, according to analysts.
Dividend growth is not guaranteed, of course. But if CBA can maintain its track record of earnings growth, the payout can grow too.
Currently, the forecast on Commsec suggests the ASX bank share could hike its FY28 payout by 2.9% to $5.30.
At the time of writing, that would be a grossed-up dividend yield of 4.5%, including franking credits.
While it's good to see the payout can continue to rise over the next two financial years, it's not a strong growth rate, and the dividend yield by FY28 is not exactly earth-shattering. So, there are other ASX shares that appeal to me more for potential returns.
