4DMedical Ltd (ASX: 4DX) shares are under pressure, but after soaring 670% in 12 months, could this ASX healthcare star stage another spectacular comeback?
4DMedical shares slipped 2% to $3.83 on Friday, extending their losses to 15% over the past five trading days. The shares are now down around 4% year to date.
More significantly, they have fallen almost 50% since hitting an all-time high of $7.55 in April.
So, can 4DMedical shares eventually reclaim that peak?
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Commercialisation is the big story
The biggest catalyst behind the remarkable rise of 4DMedical shares has been growing confidence in the company's commercial prospects.
The company has developed proprietary respiratory imaging technology that produces four-dimensional lung scans, potentially giving doctors significantly more information than traditional imaging methods. Its technology has applications across chronic respiratory diseases, lung cancer, and surgical planning.
Importantly, management is increasingly shifting from proving the technology to commercialising it.
Medallion Financial Group remains positive on the outlook, particularly around 4DMedical's CT:VQ platform. The technology uses existing CT scans to provide additional information about lung function and received US FDA clearance in 2025.
Since then, 4DMedical has secured deployments with six leading US academic medical centres. Medallion also highlighted a bipartisan US bill proposing a Department of Veterans Affairs pilot program using 4D functional lung imaging software, calling it an encouraging development.
Contracts could unlock more growth
4DMedical has secured several significant US contracts and partnerships over the past year. One of the most notable is its agreement with SimonMed, which could significantly expand access to its CT:VQ technology across the United States.
Management of 4DMedical shares believes the deal could increase its addressable market to around US$3 billion, spanning major healthcare providers and government agencies.
The company is also investing in artificial intelligence capabilities, potentially creating further applications for its technology within respiratory care.
Can the stock hit record highs again?
That's the million-dollar question. For the shares to revisit their April peak, investors will likely want to see evidence that commercial momentum is translating into sustainable revenue growth and improving financial performance.
The next major test arrives on 27 August, when 4DMedical reports its FY26 results.
Like many emerging healthcare technology companies, 4DMedical is prioritising growth and commercialisation rather than large profits today. That makes its valuation highly dependent on future execution.
If adoption accelerates and the company's US expansion continues to gain traction, another run towards $7.55 may not be impossible. But investors will need to see the numbers start catching up with the story first.
