CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares are showing signs of life, climbing 8% this month after a brutal 12-month sell-off. But with the ASX healthcare stock still down 22.5% in 2026 and 49% over the past year, investors are desperate for a turnaround.
That opportunity – or warning – could become clearer when CSL releases its FY26 results on 18 August.
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What do brokers expect?
There are reasons for CSL shareholders to remain hopeful, but first, what does the market think the shares are worth?
TradingView data shows 10 of 18 analysts rate CSL shares a hold, while the remaining eight have a buy or strong buy rating.
The average price target is $137.84, only around 2% above the current share price. The most bullish forecast sits at $196.48, representing potential upside of about 46%, while the most bearish target implies a decline of around 22%.
UBS is among the more optimistic brokers, retaining its buy rating and $158 price target. That's around 19% upside from a $132.19 share price.
UBS believes immunoglobulin demand remains robust and expects CSL's performance to improve in FY27. The broker also sees potential for CSL to regain market share and has identified early signs of recovery in the albumin market.
Morgans is similarly bullish, with a buy rating and $147.59 target.
CSL's results could change the story
The headline FY26 profit shouldn't come as a huge surprise after management's May update.
CSL said it expected FY26 net profit after tax and amortisation of around US$3.1 billion. But for CSL shares, the finer details could matter far more than the headline number.
CSL Behring, historically the company's key growth engine, has faced some significant challenges. US immunoglobulin demand remains strong, growing at a mid-to-high-single-digit rate, but reduced channel inventory is expected to cut revenue by around US$300 million.
Lower albumin prices in China are expected to reduce revenue by another US$200 million.
Investors will therefore be watching for evidence that CSL Behring's sales momentum and margins are beginning to recover.
More potential headache
CSL Vifor is another potential headache.
In June, European regulators recommended revoking Tavneos' marketing authorisation in the European Union. While Vifor is smaller than Behring, further weakness could offset improvements elsewhere.
Meanwhile, CSL is planning to demerge its Seqirus influenza vaccine business by the end of FY26. The move could unlock value by allowing the businesses to pursue more focused strategies.
What's next for the healthcare stock?
CSL shares remain firmly in turnaround territory.
The FY26 result could reveal whether the healthcare giant's core businesses are finally stabilising, or whether shareholders need to endure more pain.
After such a steep decline, even modest evidence of improvement could give CSL shares a meaningful lift. But investors will need more than a one-month bounce to prove the turnaround is real.
